MONDAY SERIE A: The Ultra previews UDINESE v NAPOLI with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
UDINESE V NAPOLI
7.45pm Monday night football from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE comes from Serie A this week as Udinese host Napoli. We also have an early kick off between Salernitana and Atalanta, but with Salernitana nailed to the bottom of the table Atalanta will be fully expected to win that and they are trading very short too. We have a much more interesting market in the later game here with Napoli the favourites at 2.08, Udinese 3.85 and the draw is 3.75 at the time of writing. We’re at the stage of the season now when every game is absolutely massive for Udinese as they sit in the relegation zone.
There’s a host of sides involved in the Serie A relegation battle this season so Udinese still have a decent chance of staying up. For example, a win here and every other result going their way over the weekend would see them jump into 14th – they actually have the best goal difference from the sides around them. The only other side in the relegation battle with a better goal difference is Verona; however as we know with Serie A now when sides finish on the same points they go to a relegation playoff rather than the goal difference – which is probably a better way to doing things in fairness!
The main issue for Udinese this season has been scoring goals and creating chances. Their average xG created is only 1.09 which is the fifth worst attacking figure in Serie A – they aren’t even taking those chances as they are scoring less than one goal per game on average. That’s why they find themselves in the relegation battle! They’ve really struggled at home this season too, and sides who tend to struggle at home are always in major trouble of going down – only Salernitana who have been nailed to the bottom all season – have less points than Udinese at home this season. The only thing I would say however is although Udinese have only won once at home, they have picked up a lot of draws – they’ve had more draws than losses at home.
Napoli are another side that have really struggled to score goals this season. They have a remarkable story this season to be honest – their average xG created is 1.88 which is the best attacking figure in Serie A but they sit in mid-table. They are one of the most under-performing sides in the league, and it’s been well documented now that they just aren’t putting the goal in the back of the net enough based on what they are creating. If you look at their under-lining numbers, you wouldn’t actually change anything going into next season – you’d just buy a striker that has a proven track record of scoring and they could easily challenge for the title again.
Napoli games are always interesting because you have that same question; will they actually take their chances here? We know at this stage they are likely to boss the game, plus Udinese have struggled to win games here – it seems the best Udinese can hope for here is a draw, which in fairness to them they have had a lot of at home. I’m going to keep stakes reasonably small, but the 2.08 on Napoli here looks too big to ignore. In recent weeks they have finally started scoring some goals, and Udinese are there for the taking – I’d have Napoli odds on.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Napoli to beat Udinese at 2.08 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/UdiNpi
