RBC HERITAGE: After a truly memorable Masters the PGA Tour resumes its schedule this week with the RBC Heritage, a traditional post-major comedown where players can enjoy the low-key, family-friendly atmosphere of Hilton Head Island and a golf course that isn’t quite as stressful as Augusta National.
That said, it’s not like this is some minor event that most of the big names skip. Due to RBC’s status as a premier sponsor of the PGA Tour, this tournament is now one of the Tour’s Signature Events, with a limited field, no cut, and a $20 million purse. That means everybody’s here… well, just about everybody… Rory McIlroy is taking the week off to bask in his triumph, which is understandable. Still, we’ve got Scheffler, Aberg, Morikawa, Schauffele, Cantlay, Thomas, Lowry, and more. It should be a fun week.
The course, Harbour Town Golf Links, was designed by Pete Dye in the late 1960s and has played host to this event since its inception. It has changed very little over the years, with its narrow fairways, overhanging trees, and tiny greens providing ample challenge for the best players in the world despite its relatively modest length — in an era of 7,800-yard courses, Harbour Town tips out around 7,200 yards. To succeed this week players will need to be accurate off the tee and precise with the irons, and since the greens are usually quite firm and difficult to hold, a deft short game touch will come in handy, too. Scoring is typically a challenge, with the winning score historically hovering around the 10-12 under range, though the last two years have been a bit of an exception, with Scottie Scheffler posting 19-under last year and Matt Fitzpatrick reaching 17-under in 2023. Scheffler is back to defend and unsurprisingly heads BETDAQ’s Win Market at 5.8, with Collin Morikawa closest to him at 12.0.
Harbour Town has produced some real surprise winners over the past decade, names like Wesley Bryan, Satoshi Kodaira, and CT Pan, so even though this is an elite field, don’t discount the possibility of a triple-digit longshot getting hot with the irons and outpacing everyone this week. With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Scottie Scheffler (5.8)- Look, I think Scheffler is going to win this week. It’s never fun tipping the favorite for obvious reasons, but I feel strongly about Scottie here and am placing a substantial bet on him myself. It’s been a frustrating few weeks for him, which is amusing because the run he’s on — top-25 finishes in all seven starts this season, with three top-5s including a runner-up in Houston three weeks ago and a T4 at last week’s Masters — would be the stuff of dreams for most players. He’s been typically dominant tee-to-green, ranking 6th on Tour in both strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained on approach, and at a course like Harbour Town, where tee-to-green precision and putting the ball in the right spots matters so much, I just don’t see anyone beating over four rounds this week. At least, not anyone in the field… the one guy who has been doing a pretty good job of beating him lately is probably laying on the floor of his bedroom right now, wearing his green jacket and doing snow angels in his piles of cash.
Sepp Straka (38.0)- Last week’s missed cut had to be a huge disappointment for Straka, as he’s been playing really well this season and had success at the Masters in 2024, when he finished 16th. After such a letdown it’s not uncommon to see a player respond with an inspiring performance the following week, especially if that player had been in good form previously, as is the case with Straka, who has four top-15 finishes across his past seven starts. It’s also critical to note that Straka loves it at Harbour Town, finding the top-5 in this event in 2 of the past 3 years, including a T5 last year. He’s a great iron player who does his best work on the bermudagrass-covered courses of the Southeast, which should come as no surprise given the fact he played collegiately at the University of Georgia, not too far from Hilton Head. Straka is a live one this week and a nice value at nearly 40/1.
Bud Cauley (76.0)- Cauley has been quietly playing the best golf of his career, finishing 6th or better in each of his past three starts, including a T6 at the Players and a 5th-place showing in San Antonio last time out. He ranks 4th on Tour in total strokes gained and his iron play has been a particular bright spot, as he ranks 3rd in proximity and 1st in proximity from the rough. He’s also been putting it well, which has been a missing ingredient in years past. Always a threat on courses where length off the tee isn’t a priority, Cauley has a nice record at Harbour Town that includes a pair of top-25s and a 9th-place finish four appearances ago. He could really surprise some folks this week and is worth a bet at the current price.
