San Francisco 49ers (5-4, 5-4 ATS) @ New York Giants (3-6, 3-6 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: San Francisco -3.5 (44.5)
Significant Injuries
San Francisco: CB Tramaine Brock (questionable– hamstring), WR Bruce Ellington (questionable– ankle), LB Dan Skuta (questionable– ankle), S Jimmie Ward (out– foot), DT Ian Williams (out– fibula)
New York: RB Peyton Hillis (out– concussion), DT Cullen Jenkins (out– calf), LB Jacquain Wiliams (out– concussion)
Recent Trends
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record
San Francisco is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games
New York is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these 2 teams
New York is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs, a team with a winning record
New York is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall
The OVER is 6-0 in San Francisco’s last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record
The OVER is 4-0 in New York’s last 4 games following a loss
The OVER is 4-1 in New York’s last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back San Francisco
1. The Niners are a quality team with championship-level experience that is fighting tooth-and-nail to return to the playoffs. After last week’s hard-fought win in New Orleans they’re now above .500 once again, and I have a hard time imagining them squandering it all against a Giants team that is coming off 4 consecutive double-digit losses.
2. San Francisco has one of the league’s best defenses once again, as they currently rank 3rd in total yards allowed, 5th against the pass, and 7th against the run. They should absolutely dominate the 20th-ranked New York offense, a unit that is averaging just 15.5 points per game in its last 4 contests. Only Geno Smith has accounted for more turnovers than Giants quarterback Eli Manning since the beginning of last season.
3. The 49ers are a run-first team that averages over 120 yards per game on the ground. This week they have their dream matchup: a Giants defense that ranks last in the league in both total yards allowed and rush yards allowed. In their last game the Giants surrendered 350 rushing yards and 5 rushing touchdowns to Seattle, so they would seem to have very little chance of slowing down Frank Gore, Colin Kaepernick and the Niners.
Three reasons to back New York
1. The Giants simply aren’t as bad as their record would indicate and that’s especially true when they’re at home, where their only two losses this season have come against Arizona and Indianapolis, two of the league’s best teams. Last week they went to Seattle, a notoriously difficult place to play, and led for most of the game before things came unraveled in the 4th quarter. They’re undervalued this week as a 3.5-point home ‘dog against a San Francisco team that has lost 2 of its last 3 games and is allowing more points than it’s scoring.
2. These teams have met with some degree of regularity over the past few years and New York has nearly always been the right side to back, covering in 7 of the past 8 meetings. This time around they’re a great ‘buy low’ candidate after a recent losing streak that has negatively affected their image with the betting public. Remember– the Giants have won 2 of their past 3 home games and both of those wins came by double-digits. They’re much better than people are giving them credit for, which has created value that’s difficult to ignore (a 3.5-pt home ‘dog…).
3. The 49ers have a one-dimensional offense– they struggle to pass the ball– and the ‘dimension’ that they rely on isn’t as good as it used to be, as aging bellcow running back Frank Gore is averaging fewer than 4 yards per carry this season and his backup, Carlos Hyde, can only be trusted for 4 or 5 carries per game. The Giants defense was embarrassed by Marshawn Lynch in their last game, so I fully expect them to respond with professional pride this week and put the clamps on the San Francisco rushing attack. If this game turns into Colin Kaepernick’s passing ability vs. Eli Manning’s passing ability, the Giants will have a significant advantage.
Prediction
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