CAMELOT MIGHT OR HE MIGHT NOT: Camelot is trading at 1.38 to win the Irish Derby this evening but he’s probably around the same price to run. Aidan O’Brien could make a very late decision if he feels the ground is too testing.
The going remains soft (heavy in places) and judged by comments from trainer Aidan O’Brien on The Morning Line the participation of red hot favourite Camelot is by no means certain.
A late withdrawal would leave stable companion Imperial Monarch as an odds-on favourite for the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby which O’Brien has won for the last six years but it’s Epsom Derby winner Camelot that we all want to see maintain his unbeaten record.
It’s a big pressure decision for O’Brien as the horse has yet to encounter anything like the ground at the Curragh – and the decision to run the race as the last on the card may yet backfire. Just how churned up will be the course after the early action and don’t forget they also raced last night.
The decision to run the race as the last on the card was taken to fit in with TV schedules and to avoid the Gaelic football on Sunday.
O’Brien also has a very easy Group One ‘plan B’ up his sleeve. To re-route to Sandown Park next Saturday for the Eclipse Stakes. Nothing is guaranteed weather wise at present – but the ground is likely to be better in Esher.
The ground was good to soft when Camelot won the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket and good to firm when he was more impressive when winning the Epsom Derby.
My gut instinct is that he won’t run him tonight.
Jim Bolger can win the opener with Leitir Mor who ran well at Royal Ascot in the Coventry behind stable companion Dawn Approach. He brings the most experience into the race and is overdue a first success.
SHAMROCK’s BETS:
NAP: Leitir Mor (3.40 Curragh)
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