Houston Texans @ New England Patriots (BBC Red Button, Tuesday, 1.20am)
There’ll be a lot of ‘man flu’ about on Tuesday morning. Oddly, it will strike down many NFL fans. At least that’s what should happen.
It is the time of year where the elite teams have drawn clear of the rest. It’s rare that two teams respectively holding the No1 and No2 playoff seedings in the AFC meet this late in the season.
And there’s plenty at stake. Houston hold the No1 seed and a two-game lead on the No2 seed Patriots with four to play. A win provides an extra tie-breaker, which could prove crucial.
The Texans are 3.5-point BETDAQ handicap underdogs for a game most neutral NFL fans will want to see.
The mind games between the two may put many people off having a wager. It is hard to have a definite view either way, as neither coach will want to give too many clues about a game plan. If things pan out as expected, these two will meet in the AFC Championship game on Sunday, January 20.
Can New England quarterback Tom Brady handle the Texans’ defence and in particular the marauding J.J. Watt?
Can Houston neutralise Brady and Wes Welker, given that their defence has not looked anything like impregnable in recent weeks?
Whilst they have only lost once this season – a 42-24 home defeat by Green Bay, just days after influential linebacker Brian Cushing was put on Injured Reserve for the season – they have really struggled in the past four weeks in beating an injured Chicago team led by a back-up quarterback, winning two games in overtime against Jacksonville and Detroit (shipping 37 and 31 points), and underwhelming in a 24-10 victory over a Tennessee team who had little to play for.
The Texans have covered the handicap in each of their six road games this season – they are also 6-0 on the road when faced with a team who have a winning home record – while the Patriots have gone 4-1 ATS at Gillette Stadium.
How effective will the Patriots be without tight end Rob Gronkowski (broken forearm) and receiver Julian Edelman, who broke a foot a hard-fought win in Miami last week?
Outside of Welker, tight end Aaron Hernandez and a woefully underused Brandon Lloyd, Brady doesn’t have too many weapons.
Welker will always get his catches and yards. Miami couldn’t stop him (12 catches for 103 yards) and Houston’s main job will be to game plan for the shifty receiver.
He’s perhaps the most annoying receiver in the league. You know the Patriots won’t go away easily if he’s playing. He simply never gives up and this edition of the Musical Interlude is dedicated to our man-crush Welker.
The Patriots have not faced such a balanced team all season. The Texans’ attack is diverse and their offensive line is one of the very best. Can the New England defence cope with running back Arian Foster and receiver Andre Johnson, who is having a career season?
Foster is key here. He’s not only a great running back, he’s also a lethal, sure-handed receiver out of the backfield and is a match-up nightmare for Bill Belichick’s men. Expect the Patriots to see heavy doses of Foster.
Belichick’s forte is quarterbacks. He knows their weaknesses and tendencies better than any other coach and this will be one of Matt Schaub’s biggest games, since he missed Houston’s march to the playoffs last season. Football minds will be fascinated to see what Belichick does to try and slow down the accurate and efficient Schaub.
The Patriots need this badly if they are to have any hope of receiving a playoff bye, especially since the Denver Broncos won on Thursday night.
But the biggest question for me is whether their defence – which has managed just 19 collective sacks of opposition quarterbacks all season – can cope with such an efficient offense. They didn’t look anything special against Miami’s pop-gun attack and handling Foster and Johnson appears to be an entirely different problem to facing Reggie Bush and Brian Hartline.
While they didn’t look anything special, we’re sure you’ll agree that our latest Christmas Belle does. You’re welcome. So is she. Anytime.
The Patriots’ up-tempo style could cause Houston a few problems but do they have the horses to take advantage of a defence that is going through a few struggles?
And if Aqib Talib attempts to cover Johnson like he did Hartline last Sunday (five catches for 84 yards and beaten on a long pass that failed to connect with safety Steve Gregory blowing coverage), it could be Houston’s win for the taking.
The guess is that Johnson will get his yards against a secondary who are still very iffy. If Houston can survive an early onslaught and stick to their running game, it will set up the pass.
Look for mismatches between Houston’s Owen Daniels and the Patriots linebackers and rookie cornerback Alfonzo Dennard, who constantly needs safety help over the top.
The communication isn’t yet there between Talib – who recently arrived from Tampa – and the Patriots’ safeties. It will come and he will make New England better.
Yet there is still an overriding feeling that Houston are vulnerable to high-powered passing attacks. Green Bay proved as much.
New England need an early lead to force Schaub to air it out. If that can happen, the hosts can win and cover the spread. But it’s tough to get a handle on this one and there’s no great conviction behind the pick, so we take the points and hope
Suggestions:
Houston +3.5
Over 51 total points
Don’t forget to check out John Arnette’s views on the game at betdaqnfl.com
Milham’s 2012 record:
Week 13: 7-7-1
Week 12: 8-7-2
Week 11: 8-4
Week 10: 6-8
Week 9: 9-4
Week 8: 7-9
Week 7: 8-6
Week 6: 6-8
Week 5: 4-9
Week 4: 10-3
Week 3: 5-8
Week 2: 7-6-1
Week 1: 7-5
Twitter: @simonmilham
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