Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (Sky Sports, 1.20am, Friday)
As autumn creeps mistily to marrow-chill, the ‘race’ for the AFC East begins to cool. New England continue to win games, while the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets and Buffalo Bills find new and exciting ways to lose theirs.
The AFC East has usurped the NFC West as the soft-scoop division, with the quartet managing to gain just two wins in 15 outings against teams with a winning record this season.
On Thursday, two of those teams square off, as the Buffalo Bills (3-6) host the Miami Dolphins (4-5). Buffalo are on a three-game losing streak, Miami have dropped their last two. This is a climacteric period for both.
While it was an unexpected jolt, Sunday’s 37-3 home defeat by Tennessee is just what is required for Miami’s rookie head coach Joe Philbin – you learn most about the character of a team (and an individual) from how it handles adversity.
And while the loss could linger for a few days, the Dolphins do not have much time to ponder what went wrong. It is never easy to travel and win on Thursday nights. A lack of rest and preparation time is borne out in the stats: road teams are 3-6 this season. Last season the visitors went 2-8 and in 2010 road teams had the same record. That’s a three-year record of 7-22.
Miami have one of the seven road victories in that span and aside from a Week 1 defeat in Houston and Sunday’s aberration at home to Tennessee, their three other losses have come by a field-goal margin – two of them in overtime.
Yet, even to the untrained eye, the Dolphins’ problems are easy to identify.
Miami’s third down defence has slumped from No1 in the league two weeks ago (26.4%) to 6th (34%) after allowing the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans to convert a combined 21 of 36 third-down attempts.
Their running game has slumped – Reggie Bush, who was benched after a fumble six minutes into the game against Tennessee, is averaging only 45 yards rushing over the past seven games – and more could have been expected against the Titans’ 30th-ranked run defence.
Rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill has managed only five touchdown passes in his first nine games and he lobbed three interceptions – all to linebackers – in the loss, their heaviest since being thrashed 41-0 by Indianapolis in December 1997. That game saw Colts quarterback Jim Harbaugh complete 20 of 26 passes and toss four touchdowns, while Miami legend Dan Marino completed just seven of 15 passes for 71 yards.
Miami are a frustrating team. They can blow out the New York Jets on the road one minute, then inexplicably lose to an inferior Tennessee team at home the next.
A lot of theDolphins’ offensive woes are down to the blocking, or rather the lack of it. Former first-round draft pick Jake Long has been as guilty as anyone and the left tackle’s production has not been as expected. It is highly possible that he could be allowed to leave after his rookie contract is up at the end of this season, as there is no way he will receive anything like the $92million Joe Thomas got from the Cleveland Browns. Injuries have played a part, but it appears he is struggling as Miami attempt to move away from a power scheme – which suits their personnel – to Philbin’s West Coast offense, which at present, they do not have the players in place to execute with consistency.
Miami has 24 players who can test the free agency waters next season, so saving between $10m and $15m dollars by allowing Long to walk to seems logical.
However, Philbin would be wise to keep him and it is in Long’s interest to step up his performances in the remaining seven games.
While Miami’s third-down defence is slumping, Buffalo’s has not got off the floor of the NFL: opponents have converted 54 of 114 third-down attempts (a league worst 47% conversion rate).
Buffalo’s run defence has been truly horrible. Tackles Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus are not great anchors and can often get caught out of position, and the linebackers are not any great shakes; Kelvin Sheppard, in particular, looks to be underperforming. Ryan Tannehill will be wise to keep the ball away from Jairus Byrd’s area, however, as he is a good playmaker in the Bills’ secondary.
Tennessee were able to mask their inability to stop the run by making a fast start against Miami, but if the Dolphins clean up their inexcusable mistakes and are more focussed, they should penetrate the 30th-ranked Bills’ run defence at will.
Former Miami head coach and now Buffalo defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt will likely bring plenty of pressure, particularly off the edge through Mario Williams and Chris Kelsay.
So expect to see plenty of screen passes to Reggie Bush coming out of the backfield. This looks a good match-up from Miami’s point of view. I also have a sneaking feeling that tight end Anthony Fasano could be a major player.
Tight ends have one of the toughest jobs on the field because of how often their responsibilities shift from blocking to receiving, but in the fast-paced system run by the Dolphins, the difficulty only increases. Fasano’s blocking in the running game is often overlooked and given Miami’s limited options in the passing game – particularly without a true deep threat, as Brian Hartline is very hit and miss – Buffalo would be wise to contain him at all times.
The jury is still very much out on Charles Clay. He has shown flashes but Miami fans would like to see a little more of him; the second-year man is still learning his role in this up-tempo offense and he has just seven catches this term.
Buffalo’s speed should scare Miami’s defence and field position will be a big factor for Buffalo. If Miami can contain excellent return men Leodis McKelvin and Brad Smith, then it will increase their chances of victory.
As a team, Miami did not manage to get their hands on Chris Johnson last Sunday and the hope is they will manage to keep the shackles on Fred Jackson. This prideful unit, which had been solid against the run until last week, face a significant threat from C.J. Spiller and Miami’s linebackers are not the quickest. Getting the ball in his hands should be a priority for quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Miami should dominate is at the line of scrimmage, despite their production slipping markedly over the last two weeks. Buffalo centre Eric Wood is smart and athletic, but often struggles to shed his initial block.
The speed of Miami’s pass rush will be crucial to the outcome. Hitting Fitzpatrick early and frequently would be nice, but Cameron Wake is getting very little help. The Dolphins have, at times, been undisciplined in their rushing lanes and when they have, they frequently fail to get to those lanes fast enough. It has put pressure on a secondary that is average at best. That’s not good news when facing burners like Stevie Johnson and excellent tight end Scott Chandler, as Fitzpatrick also has the ability to extend plays with his feet.
Those who place faith in historical stats will note that it is 26 years since Miami last won three consecutive road games against the Bills. And since 1986, Miami’s record against the Bills in November games is a woeful 3-9, including a 1-5 record in Buffalo.
Throw in the horrible record of road teams on Thursday nights and you can see why the Bills are favoured by a point on the BETDAQ handicap.
Miami still look the more disciplined outfit and their 19-7-1 record in covering the handicap in their last 27 road games merits the greatest respect.
But playing away from home under NFL lights will be a whole new experience for Tannehill and if the running game doesn’t re-emerge, the big question is whether he can keep pace with the Bills’ attack, which is sure to exploit the Dolphins’ secondary. He hasn’t yet been able to carry the team on his young shoulders. The Bills’ weak pass defence might keep this close, though.
Suggestions:
Buffalo – Moneyline
Over 46 points
And don’t forget to check out John Arnette’s view on the game at betdaqnfl.com.
Milham’s 2012 record:
Week 1: 7-5
Week 2: 7-6-1
Week 3: 5-8
Week 4: 10-3
Week 5: 4-9
Week 6: 6-8
Week 7: 8-6
Week 8: 7-9
Week 9: 9-4
Week 10: 6-8
Twitter: @simonmilham
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