Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (Sky Sports HD, 5.30pm)
Chicago were as poor as we expected them to be against the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night. Their battered offensive line could not deal with Aldon Smith and Jason Campbell, who could again deputise for concussed quarterback Jay Cutler, was continuously running for cover.
At the time of writing, because of the uncertainty of Cutler’s availability, there is no handicap line for this game. He will have to be cleared by an independent neurologist before he is given the all-clear to play.
There are also injury concerns over top receiver Brandon Marshall, who did not practice on Wednesday as he was nursing a shoulder injury.
With Green Bay facing a tricky trip to the New York Giants on Monday, the Bears (7-5) know they are in a great position to take advantage in a tight NFC North race, but a loss will put the Vikings (6-4) on level terms.
There is no great secret to stopping the Vikings’ attack – slow down running back Adrian Peterson, which is easier said than done. He’s racking up 5.8 yards per carry and spearheads the NFL’s third-ranked rushing attack. The Bears have allowed an average of 131.5 yards per game on the ground in their last four outings, which is cause for concern.
There is no question the Bears are much better with Cutler than without him, but whoever plays behind centre, they will be susceptible to speed rushers off the edge. Say hello to Jared Allen, rested off a bye week. While not on pace to record the 22 sacks he had last year, he is still a major force and the Bears will also have to minimise the turnovers. They have been sloppy in the last two weeks, giving away six of them.
Fortunately, the Vikings are to ball hawking what Tim Tebow is to devil worshiping, for they rank 29th of the 32 teams, recording just five interceptions.
Chicago’s defence should fare a lot better against Christian Ponder than they did against Colin Kaepernick, although he has been sacked only eight times all season and is generally an accurate passer. But he does not have a great receiving corps and should Percy Harvin miss out with an ankle injury, this would give the Bears’ pass defence a great advantage.
Chicago’s running game all but disappeared in the last two weeks against Houston and San Francisco. Matt Forte should fare better against Minnesota’s 14th-ranked run defence, providing the offensive line blocks huge tackles Fred Evans and Kevin Williams. That’s a big ‘if’.
If Cutler plays – and it is likely that he will – the Bears are going to be around 5-point handicap favourites and if Chicago’s defence can force Ponder out of the pocket, good things should happen. That unit, again, can provide the springboard for victory, but will that handicap be enough?
San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints (Sky Sports HD, 9.25pm)
If you are still a non-believer, if you still get dragged to the church of the NFL each week and hear the sages utter wise words without actually bothering to listen, do yourself a favour: watch the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.
For seeing is believing – the 49ers are for real. Watch and be converted.
It won’t matter who is playing at the quarterback position. Will Alex Smith return from a concussion or not? It won’t matter a whit.
Jim Harbaugh is pondering whether to go with the hot hand of Colin Kaepernick or give his regular passer, Smith, the keys to the tank. It should not matter.
The Saints, who have won five of their last six games, receive 1-point on the BETDAQ handicap but rate a solid lay, despite the fact that the Niners have lost on six of their last seven on trips to the Crescent City.
The reasoning is simple: San Francisco’s defence should make life very tough for Drew Brees and company, while their attack, which hung 32 points on Chicago’s supposedly good defence last week, should have no trouble riding roughshod over an overmatched Saints’ defence. The only slight concern is the short rest week, coupled with the holiday period and the mayhem that can cause.
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants (C4, Monday, 1.20am)
The Packers have had this game ringed since the schedule was announced but any thoughts of avenging last season’s playoff exit at the hands of the Super Bowl Champions are tempered somewhat by some key injuries.
Having come off a couple of disappointing games and a bye, the Giants (6-4) run into a Packers (7-3) team that has won five in a row and also need to win to stay with the Chicago Bears in the NFC North race.
The Giants are 2.5-point BETDAQ handicap favourites and with the offensive line having had plenty of rest, they should be able to get after Packers’ quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Something isn’t quite clicking with the offense, but receiver Greg Jennings isn’t ruling himself out of playing on Sunday. Cedric Benson is also ahead of schedule on his rehab, so the running game should get a boost when he returns in a few weeks.
The key is how much time Rodgers will be accorded by the swarming front four. If he gets time, then even if Jennings is a no-show, the receiving corps or Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Randall Cobb, Jermichael Finley and Donald Driver is reliable and can go deep. They will test a shaky Giants’ secondary, which is boosted by the return of safety Kenny Phillips. He has missed the last six games with a knee injury but he is an integral part of the reason why Big Blue’s front four have not been as effective at pressurising opposing quarterbacks lately.
Clay Matthews is doubtful to return to action for the Packers, however, and after a few disappointing games, you would expect Giants’ quarterback Eli Manning to air the ball out and test a Packers’ secondary that will still be without cornerback Charles Woodson. Manning hasn’t thrown a touchdown in the Giants’ last three games and he has thrown just one TD pass in the last 18 quarters, so all eyes will be upon him.
Since Week 4, Green Bay have allowed a league-best 84 yards rushing per game, but those figures are somewhat slanted, as their pass defence is regularly tested. It has, however, improved markedly with the emergence of second-round draft pick Casey Hayward.
The Giants have not been running the ball well lately, either. Ahmad Bradshaw’s week 5 200-yard effort against Cleveland was the exception rather than the rule and he has been nursing a foot injury that could still sideline him this weekend. While this is a serious and ongoing issue, I’m still siding with the hosts.
Green Bay have won their last four in New York but it is time for Eli to awake from his usual November hibernation and a big night. Trust Big Blue to find their pass rush when it matters.
Big Blue may not be perfect, but in my little mind, Lloyd Cole’s songwriting still is, and always has been. So, harking back to a gentler time when the lies were shinier, more believable and girls like Cindy Lloyd, Leanne Judge and Clare Garrett broke my heart, here’s the great one with Perfect Blue…
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay stole a win in Carolina last Sunday and their offense has been arguably one of the most improved units in the NFL over the past five weeks.
However, Atlanta can roll to victory as a mere 1-point BETDAQ handicap favourite in one of the better bets of the weekend.
Tampa running back Doug Martin must be salivating at the thought of going up against a run defence that is struggling, in large part because of Sean Weatherspoon’s absence. In theory, this should open up the passing lanes for Josh Freeman, but Atlanta’s pass defence is tough – even if Asante Samuel is ruled out – and while Tampa are efficient in the red zone, they don’t sustain long drives.
If the Falcons win the field-position battle, it could be a long day for the Bucs’ defence, who are near the top of the rankings at stopping the run, but their pass defence is still extremely shaky and they are getting burned consistently.
Matt Ryan had a dreadful outing against a top-10 Arizona defence last week, but even if Julio Jones is ruled out, you would expect Matty Ice to bounce back against the Bucs’ weakest unit. He still has Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, two of the best receiving/tight end combos in the NFL. This is all about match-ups and the Bucs’ simply don’t have the horses to counter what the Falcons – 4-1 against the handicap (ATS) on the road this season – do best.
Seattle Seahawks @ Miami Dolphins
Since Week 3 and including the three Thanksgiving Day games, home teams are 45-83-2 ATS, which is just the way the Vegas layers like things.
No one is giving Miami much hope of covering the handicap against a surging Seattle on Sunday, although the fact that they travel cross country to face a team they invariably struggle against (2-6 in Miami, 4-9 overall) means the Dolphins are accorded just a 3 point start on the BETDAQ handicap.
With the New York Jets effectively gift-wrapping the AFC East division with a laughable display against New England (whom the Dolphins still have to play twice) on Thursday, you would think the Dolphins have little to play for.
But unlike the Jets, whose locker room has been poisonous over the last few weeks with players seemingly sniping at each other via the media, the Miami locker room has remained upbeat, despite a three-game losing streak.
They have, however, lost to three mediocre – at best – teams and their offensive line, so effective earlier this season, has worn down. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is struggling with an out-matched receiving corps but his opposite number, rookie passer Russell Wilson, has still to prove he can lead his team on the road – the Seahawks are 1-4 away from home.
The travel issues for Seattle (they effectively play at 10am) may be overblown but they do compromise those teams who travel long distances. However, the Seahawks come off a bye week, so there really should be no excuses.
Yet something tells me this could be a close one and it would not be a great surprise to see Dolphins’ kicker Dan Carpenter gaining some redemption for misfiring with games on the line earlier in the year. If you like Miami with the points, you may as well go for it all at bigger odds on the Moneyline.
Oakland Raiders @ Cincinnati Bengals
Carson Palmer got what he wanted when sitting out 2011 after vowing never to play for the Bengals again, but just how is that trade working out? Oakland’s offensive line is perhaps the weakest it has ever been but you can bet Palmer will be bursting to put one over on the improving Bengals. There might not be more than a touchdown between these two in what could be a relatively low-scoring game, so keep the 9.5 points on your side.
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
Giving up a double-digit spread on the road is naturally very tough, so there will be many who will balk at taking the Broncos to cover a 10.5-point BETDAQ handicap at Arrowhead against a division rival. The Broncos and Chiefs have alternated wins and losses here in the last six years, with Denver winning 17-10 last season, their third low-scoring encounter in succession (totals were 16, 27 and 10). Previously there had been plenty of points scored between the two and with Peyton Manning’s offense continuing on a roll, the Chiefs’ rearguard are unlikely to slow them down. The recent trends end: Broncos cover in a points-fest.
Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers
The Ravens could let down after a punishing encounter with Pittsburgh, but the Chargers are playing out the season after losing to the Broncos. They alternate wins and losses in San Diego and it is the Ravens’ turn. Ray Rice can get it down on the ground for the birds.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Houston Texans’ bible-bashing running back Justin Forsett’s blatant cheating made me extremely mad on Thursday night. Some would say I’m staying that way by taking Jacksonville with a 3-point BETDAQ handicap start at home, but my buddy John Arnette – check out his views on the weekend’s action at betdaqnfl.com – convinced me to take the hosts. John is a Jacksonville native and knows this team inside out. With Chad Henne at the helm, the Jags showed enough against the Texans to think they can win here (now can you let go, please John? My arm is hurting).
Suggestions:
Minnesota +5.5
NY Giants -2.5
San Francisco -1
Atlanta -1
Miami +3
Oakland +9.5
Oakland/Cincinnati under 49.5 points
Denver -10.5
Denver/Kansas City Over 44 points
Baltimore Moneyline
Jacksonville +3
Milham’s 2012 record:
Week 11: 8-4
Week 10: 6-8
Week 9: 9-4
Week 8: 7-9
Week 7: 8-6
Week 6: 6-8
Week 5: 4-9
Week 4: 10-3
Week 3: 5-8
Week 2: 7-6-1
Week 1: 7-5
Twitter: @simonmilham
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
