There are a few conditions that Weird Al probably needs in his favour in order to be seen to best effect. He needs a long gap between his races, he probably needs a distance of three miles, but not much more than that, he is probably better on soft ground than he is on good or fast ground, and the balance of his form suggests that he is better in the winter than he is in the spring. All his stars align today then.
Another thing you need to remember about Weird Al, however, is that he breaks blood vessels. He has broken a blood vessel twice in his last five runs. It’s not good. When a horse breaks a blood vessel once, there is always a reasonable chance that he will do so again, and you have to factor that into the equation now every time you are thinking about backing Weird Al.
On the positive side, insofar as there is a positive side, both blood vessel breaks have been in the Gold Cup. Perhaps it was Cheltenham that caused it, the up-hill and down-dale (although he did win at Cheltenham twice in his younger days), perhaps it was the Gold Cup razzamatazz, perhaps it was the Gold Cup pace, perhaps it was the time of year, March, towards the end of the season. It is impossible to know. But he makes his seasonal debut today, and his freshness should minimise the probability of another broken blood vessel. First time out is the time to get him.
Weird Al’s record when he has had a break of four weeks or more since his previous race reads 211111P1PF (both Ps the broken blood vessels, the F in the Grand National); his record when he has been returned to the racecourse less than four weeks after his previous run reads 83. His record on his seasonal debut reads 21111; his record after his seasonal debut reads 118P3PF.
His record when racing over a distance of between two and a half miles and three miles and a furlong reads 1111113; his record when racing over a distance in excess of three miles and a furlong reads 8PPF. His record on ground softer than good to soft reads 21111; his record on good to soft or faster ground reads 18P13PF.
Also, his record between October and February reads 211111813; his record between March and September reads PPF.
Last year, Weird Al won the Charlie Hall Chase on his seasonal debut, then ran a cracker to finish third in the 2011 renewal of today’s race. It is probable that winning the Charlie Hall three weeks earlier wasn’t the ideal preparation for today’s race last year, yet he still got to within two lengths of Long Run, who was eight lengths behind Kauto Star. He is a year older now, he is nine rising 10, but he is relatively lightly-raced for his age, he has run in just 12 races in his life under all codes. There is plenty of mileage left in him, and it is probable that Donald McCain has had this race in mind for him for a while now.
Long Run is the obvious standard-setter, but he is very short at 2.78 this evening, and it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see him drift in the morning. The King George and Gold Cup winner of the 2010/11 season, he won just once from four attempts last term, and he has not progressed as you would have expected a five-year-old King George winner (okay, so the King George was run in January that year, but he should have been five) and a six-year-old Gold Cup winner to have progressed.
Robert Waley-Cohen’s horse needed his seasonal debut last year, just as he had in 2010, and it is probable that he will progress for his run today. Unlike Weird Al, it is unlikely that this race has been his goal. It is more likely that Nicky Henderson is treating it as a stepping-stone to the King George. As well as that, Long Run is developing as a real stayer, Haydock’s inside track is probably tighter than ideal for him, and very soft ground would be a concern. He may win, but it is easy to be against him at the price.
Silviniaco Conti is probably a bigger danger to Weird Al, despite the fact that he is a bigger price than Long Run. He was a high-class novice among what is looking more and more like a vintage crop of novices last year, runner-up in the Feltham Chase, winner of the Mildmay Chase, and he looked really good in beating more experienced rivals in the Charlie Hall Chase on his return this term. He should handle soft ground – he beat Captain Chris in the Persian War Hurdle at Chepstow on the only occasion on which he has encountered soft ground – and, a six-year-old who has raced just six times over fences, he has plenty of scope for progression. Odds of 3.35 about him are fair.
The Giant Bolster has been well touted all week, but he shouldn’t really want the ground to be too soft, he will probably improve for his seasonal debut and he is probably a better horse at Cheltenham than he is anywhere else. You could see Cannington Brook out-performing odds of 18.5. He was fairly badly hampered when Frisco Depot fell in front of him at the second last fence at Ascot last time, and he should come on for that run. Crucially, he loves Haydock and he revels in soft ground there. However, unless it happened to come up really heavy, it is difficult to see him winning the race.
I have backed Weird Al, and I will probably keep Silviniaco Conti on side.
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