There are several things to consider in the final few weeks of the regular season. Check the forecasts before you bet, as inclement weather and falling temperatures can, in particular, affect the points totals. Two reliable sites to use are www.nflweather.com and www.accuweather.com
It is also worth looking at the playoff seedings. Study injury reports and late team news a little more closely, as some teams will start to rest key players for the post season. Others have already joined the express checkout line and are merely playing out the season.
With this in mind, here’s the shake-down of some big Week 14 games…
Baltimore Ravens @ Washington Redskins (Sky Sports HD, 6pm)
Weather: 61° F/ 16° C and a chance of rain. The BETDAQ handicap sees the Redskins 6-6) as 1-point favourites. Following three successive victories and a swoon by the New York Giants, the Redskins are just a game behind the Super Bowl champion in the NFC East and they have a better record against division opponents (3-1 to the Giants’ 2-3).
They also have a soft run-in, with two road games at Cleveland and Philadelphia, and finishing at home to Dallas, in what could turn out to be a winner-takes-all affair.
Those games are all winnable, but just twice this season Washington have kept their opponent to under 21 points. You could argue that the two rookies who lead the offense have done an excellent job. Likewise, you can’t see them having a seven-game winning streak to end the season.
The Ravens’ loss at home to Pittsburgh still leaves them in a good position to clinch a playoff spot. With a 9-1 record, they remain two games ahead of the Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC North, but have a tough run-in, hosting division leaders in the Giants and Broncos, and finishing at the wild-card-chasing Bengals.
Nothing has come easy to Baltimore. Injuries to key linebackers Terrell Suggs, Ray Lewis and Dannell Ellerbe has seen their defence fall away – they currently rank 23rd against the run and 23rd against the pass. The offense has also sputtered lately – aside from a 55-20 Week 10 thumping of sad sack Oakland, they have averaged just 17.4 points in five other outings since Week 7.
Washington’s defence should be more accommodating, although they haven’t managed to play decent back-to-back games this season.
Washington’s Robert Griffin III is having a Cam Newton-like impact in his first season but breaking the single-season record for yards rushing by a rookie quarterback last week against the New York Giants does nothing for me – he’s a quarterback and should be throwing the ball, not running with it.
Baltimore are an all-round better team but Washington have momentum. I’m always inclined to take the better team in these situations.
The Belles of Christmas: Here’s this week’s little cracker as we continue our cheerleading Advent calendar. You’re welcome.
But can someone please tell me why does one door open and another one close on my pessimistic advent calendar?
New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants (Sky Sports HD, 9.25pm)
Weather: 49° F/ 9° C and a chance of rain. The BETDAQ handicap has the Giants as 5-point favourites. A dome team heads north to a cold, outdoor environment, so it is little wonder that the Saints are 4-14 at the New York Giants all time. But wait: three of those four victories all came in December games (the other in November), so throw out the clichés and look at the trends.
Saints have won four of their last five meetings, including on their last visit in December 2006 and following their defeat by Atlanta, they are 5-7 with their Wild Card playoff hopes about to flatline. After scoring 28 or more points in their previous three wins, the Saints have now totalled just 34 points overall in their last two games. One would assume they have to win out to snatch a wild card spot. Defeat would almost certainly end their season.
The Giants are a game in front of Washington and Dallas and they have a worse division record than both. With awkward games at Atlanta and Baltimore to follow, defeat here would put the Super Bowl champion in a hole.
Saints don’t run the ball well at all, can’t stop the run and are also very iffy against the pass. They will again have to rely on Drew Brees’s arm and this should boil down to a battle between him and the Giants’ front four. If safety Kenny Phillips plays (he is listed as questionable) the home team should get back on track. But the desperate Saints with the points cushion looks tempting in what could be a relatively low-scoring affair.
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (C4, Monday, 1.20am)
Weather: 31° F/ -1° C and a chance of snow. Dome team heads to the frozen tundra and the Packers are 7-point BETDAQ handicap favourites. Somewhere, Matt Flynn is counting his money and laughing. Remember is 480-yards, six-touchdown performance against Green Bay in this fixture last season? That one game saw his stock rise and he was courted by the Miami Dolphins before he inked a $19.5 million contract with the Seattle Seahawks ($10m guaranteed). He was subsequently beaten out in training camp by Russell Wilson. Somewhere, Jeff Ireland mops his brow.
Green Bay have a slender lead in the NFC North and have three division games remaining in their last four, so their playoff hopes are very much in their own hands (especially since they have an 8-4 record and they should be favourites to beat Tennessee at home on December 23).
But injuries continue to be a major problem and they are again likely to be without receiver Jordy Nelson and linebacker Clay Matthews, while running back James Starks is definitely sidelined. Cornerback Charles Woodson and receiver Donald Driver are also struggling to be fit.
With a 4-8 record, Detroit may have little to play for except pride, but they have the incentive of trying to break a run of 21 consecutive defeats in Green Bay – they haven’t won there since a 21-17 victory on December 15, 1991.
After losing to Houston in overtime on Thanksgiving, the Lions followed up by letting another game slip away on the final play against Indianapolis. With four straight losses, the fork has been stuck in this team, washed up and put back in the kitchen drawer (where it belongs, Mrs Milham!).
Doesn’t mean they can’t cause an upset and end their hoodoo, though. The law of averages says they’ve got to win one sooner or later – may as well be now. The thing is they have nothing to play for. So Packers win and cover.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Weather: 64/80f Partly Sunny. The best team at covering handicaps takes on the visiting worst team covering handicaps and even though the Buccaneers are in the hunt for an NFC Wild Card and are playing well, the 3-9 Eagles are the pick. Quite simply, this looks a potential upset. The Eagles have shown their offensive line is starting to solidify and they hung a season-high 33 points on a good Dallas defence last week and 183 yards on the ground. Rookie QB Nick Foles was sacked just once while completing 22 of 34 for 251 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions. The signing of Jake Scott off the street six days before he played against the Washington Redskins, appears to have helped the offensive line enormously. Andy Reid may me on his way to San Diego (that’s the word on the street) and Michael Vick may have played his last game in Philadelphia (Jets next year, perhaps?) but the Eagles may have something to build on. Bird is the word.
New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Weather: 58/76f Partly Sunny. If you are curious to what the quarterback pecking order is at the New York Jets, then welcome aboard. But it appears that no-one is jumping on the Tim Tebow bandwagon – not while Rex Ryan is driving towards the cliff.
Tebow is unlikely to suit up against his hometown club as he recovers from fractured ribs, despite the team medical staff saying he is “medically cleared to play”.
Ryan stated on Wednesday that Mark Sanchez, who was benched in favour of Greg McElroy during last week’s 7-6 snoozer against Arizona, returns as starter with a point to prove. McElroy is likely to be the back-up, although Ryan said Tebow’s health would determine who the backup would be. Confused? No matter. The Jets are not great and Jacksonville are worse, as the 2.5-point BETDAQ handicap suggests.
Jets have not won in Jacksonville in three previous visits and have been outscored 90-20 in those three contests.
But the Jags have some injury issues, with a centre, two cornerbacks, two running backs, full-back and an important receiver all struggling to be fit.
Sanchez may have very little to work with, but if he can’t pass his way past this defence, then he really is heading for the NFL wilderness at the end of the season.
Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers
Weather: 45/62f Sunny. Miami are 11-2 against the handicap/spread (ATS) when faced with a team who possess a winning record in their last 13 games and while San Francisco are not known for blowing out competitive teams, it is very hard to see Miami’s rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill moving the ball against this defence. The Niners will grind out another win and it probably won’t be pretty. But they should cover what appears a lofty spread, regardless of whether it is Alex Smith or Colin Kaepernick at quarterback.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cleveland Browns
Weather: 44/48f Rain likely. Don’t look now by the perennial whipping boys of the AFC are about to earn their first three-game winning streak since the twelfth of never (thankfully, we don’t stoop to Cliff Richard Musical Interludes). Hands up who remembers the last time the Browns were 6-point favourites? The Chiefs’ record is two wins from 10 visits to Cleveland all time and the organisation as a whole have had a traumatic week. Emotion takes a heavy toll and the Browns can cover in a relatively high-scoring affair, despite the likely inclement conditions.
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
Chicago have never beaten Minnesota on seven successive occasions. They have also covered the handicap in each of those six consecutive victories. But bettors have to ask themselves if they trust overrated Chicago, given that they have covered the spread in just two of their last seven games. Linebacker Brian Urlacher (the Bears are 7-15 without him), receiver Earl Bennett and cornerback Tim Jennings are all ruled out, so the Vikings would seemingly have a great chance of winning, or at least keeping within the 2.5-point BETDAQ handicap. But outside of Adrian Peterson, they don’t have a reliable playmaker. Christian Ponder is erratic and not being put in good positions by offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave, and with Percy Harvin lost for the season the young QB has little in the way of targets outside of tight end Kyle Rudolph.
Vikings fans had better hope they can jump out to an early lead and the noise levels in a loud stadium affect QB Jay Cutler and his makeshift offensive line. The Vikings are a different team at home but the Bears are simply a better team, who can at least move the ball through the air should they fall behind.
Suggestions:
Baltimore +1
New Orleans +5
Green Bay -7
New York Jets -2.5
San Francisco -10
Philadelphia +7
Cleveland -6
Chicago -2.5
Miami/San Francisco Under 39 points
Kansas City/Cleveland Over 37.5 points
New Orleans/NY Giants Under 53 points
Don’t forget to check out John Arnette’s views on the game at betdaqnfl.com
Milham’s 2012 record:
Week 13: 7-7-1
Week 12: 8-7-2
Week 11: 8-4
Week 10: 6-8
Week 9: 9-4
Week 8: 7-9
Week 7: 8-6
Week 6: 6-8
Week 5: 4-9
Week 4: 10-3
Week 3: 5-8
Week 2: 7-6-1
Week 1: 7-5
Twitter: @simonmilham
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