Denver Broncos (8-3, 5-6 ATS) @ Kansas City Chiefs (7-4, 8-3 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Denver -1 (49)
Significant Injuries
Denver: S Quinton Carter (questionable– knee), CB Aqib Talib (questionable– hamstring), TE Julius Thomas (questionable– ankle), RB Montee Ball (out– groin), RB Ronnie Hillman (out– foot), CB Kayvon Webster (out– shoulder)
Kansas City: CB Chris Owens (questionable– knee), DT Kevin Vickerson (questionable– calf), WR Junior Hemingway (out– concussion)
Recent Trends
Denver is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. AFC West opponents
Denver is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record
Kansas City is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. AFC West opponents
The OVER is 5-0 in Denver’s last 5 games vs. AFC opponents
The OVER is 8-2 in Denver’s last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 5-2 in Kansas City’s last 7 games vs. AFC West opponents
The UNDER is 5-2 in Kansas City’s last 7 games overall
The UNDER is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Denver
1. At 8-3, Denver sits atop the AFC West and is just 1-game back of New England in the race for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. With a talented, veteran roster and a first-ballot Hall of Famer at quarterback, the Broncos just may be the NFL’s best team. Kansas City, on the other hand, just lost to the previously winless Oakland Raiders. The Broncos are simply the superior team, as they proved when they dispatched the Chiefs back in Week 2. Don’t make this more complicated than it has to be: back the better team.
2. The Peyton Manning-led Denver offense is once again one of the league’s top units, averaging over 416 total yards and 30 points per game. How is a Chiefs offense that has produced 24 points or fewer in 6 of its past 7 games going to keep up? They likely answer: they won’t keep up, just like they were unable to the last time these teams met… and the time before, and the time before that. Kansas City has lost 5 straight games in this rivalry.
3. The Chiefs are extremely one-dimensional offensively; they run the ball well but their passing attack is nearly nonexistent, as they rank 31st (next to last) in pass yards per game. That makes them a dream matchup for a Denver defense that ranks 2nd against the run, surrendering just 75.5 rushing yards per game.
Three reasons to back Kansas City
1. The Broncos have struggled on the road lately, losing by 15 in St. Louis in Week 11 and by 22 in New England in Week 9. It’s not going to get any easier for them this week, as the Chiefs have won 4 straight games at home, covering each time. And they haven’t just been beating up on losing teams, either– they handled AFC frontrunner New England in Week 4 and beat defending Super Bowl champion Seattle in their last home game, two weeks ago. The opportunity to back the Chiefs at home without having to lay points should not be missed.
2. Kansas City has one of the league’s best defenses, a unit that ranks 3rd in points allowed (17.7 ppg) and 1st against the pass. The Broncos, meanwhile, are without their top two running backs and may be without playmaking tight end Julius Thomas, who is officially listed as questionable with an ankle injury. A shorthanded Denver offense going on the road to face an elite defense… sure doesn’t sound like a recipe for success for the Broncos.
3. The Kansas City offense has averaged 30.7 points per game in their last 4 home contests and this week they’re facing a Denver defense that was gashed by Miami last week, surrendering 36 points to the middling Dolphins offense. The Broncos have allowed 21 points or more in 4 of their past 5 games.
Prediction
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