New England Patriots (7-2, 5-4 ATS) @ Indianapolis Colts (6-3, 7-2 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Indianapolis -3 (57)
Significant Injuries
New England: DE Dominique Easley (questionable– knee), S Nate Ebner (questionable– finger), OT Cameron Fleming (questionable– finger), G Ryan Wendell (questionable– knee), DE Chandler Jones (out– hip)
Indianapolis: OT Gosder Cherilus (questionable– groin), DT Arthur Jones (out– ankle)
Recent Trends
New England is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record
New England is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games
New England is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record
Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye
Indianapolis is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a win of more than 14 points
Indianapolis is 18-5 ATS in their last 23 home games
The OVER is 4-1 in New England’s last 5 games following a bye
The OVER is 45-19 in New England’s last 64 games vs. AFC opponents
The OVER is 9-2 in Indianapolis’ last 11 games overall
The OVER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back New England
1. The Patriots just might be the best team in the entire NFL. They’ve won 5 consecutive games and 7 of 8, with six of their wins coming by 15 points or more. Obviously, anytime you have the opportunity to back the league’s best team as an underdog you should do it. The Pats were also 3-point ‘dogs in a Week 9 home games against Denver and they cruised to a 43-21 win. This team is better than the NFL-betting world thinks it is.
2. The Tom Brady-led New England offense has steadily improved over the course of the season and is currently operating with machine-like efficiency. They’ve scored 94 combined points in their last two games and have averaged an astounding 40.2 points per game since their Week 4 loss in Kansas City. The Colts, who have surrendered 75 combined points in their last two games, have no realistic chance of success in this matchup.
3. The Patriots are better defensively than they’ve been in several years, and they’re better in the secondary than they are against the run. That should work out well for them this week because calling the Colts a “pass-first” offense is understating the situation. Andrew Luck is going to throw, throw, and throw some more, which means the veteran New England secondary will have plenty of opportunity to make their mark on this game.
Three reasons to back Indianapolis
1. The Colts have been red hot over the past few weeks, winning 6 of their past 7 games, and they’re one of the NFL’s best home teams, having covered in 18 of their past 23 opportunities. The Patriots, meanwhile, are a miserable 4-11 against the number in their last 15 road games.
2. Indianapolis has the NFL’s best offense, a unit that leads the league in total yards per game, pass yards per game, and points per game (32.2). They’ve scored 20 points or more in every game this season and 33 or more five times. This week they’re facing a mediocre New England defense that surrenders over 355 total yards per game, so it should be business as usual for the Colts, which means bettors should take advantage of the very reasonable 3-point number here.
3. The Patriots have won 5 straight games, it’s true, but 4 of those games were played in Foxborough. In their four road games this season they’ve beaten the Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings, lost by 27 in Kansas City and lost by 13 in Miami. They’re a very ordinary team when they leave the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium, and the Colts are a high-scoring offensive juggernaut that won their last home game 27-0. The Pats will be in “catch-up” mode all game, making them a risky play for bettors.
Prediction
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