Tennessee Titans (2-6, 2-5-1 ATS) @ Baltimore Ravens (5-4, 4-4-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Baltimore -10 (43.5)
Significant Injuries
Tennessee: CB Coty Sensabaugh (questionable– knee), WR Nate Washington (questionable– shoulder)
Baltimore: WR Michael Campanaro (questionable– hamstring), CB Jimmy Smith (out– foot), CB Asa Jackson (out– toe)
Recent Trends
Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
Tennessee is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss
Tennessee is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall
Baltimore is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. AFC opponents
Baltimore is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record
The underdog is 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 4-1 in Tennessee’s last 5 road games
The OVER is 4-1 in Baltimore’s last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record
The OVER is 5-2 in Baltimore’s last 7 games overall
Three reasons to back Tennessee
1. The Titans were competitive in their last road game, a 2-point loss to Washington in Week 7, and they’re coming off a bye, so they should be rested, healthy, and ready for a Baltimore team that usually struggles against sub-.500 opposition, covering just twice in their last 7 opportunities.
2. Tennessee has turned to big-armed rookie Zach Mettenberger at quarterback, and this week Mettenberger will be facing a Baltimore defense that has been vulnerable in the secondary this season, surrendering over 260 pass yards per game. If the Titans can produce some big plays in the passing game it’s going to be tough for the Ravens to cover a double-digit number.
3. The Baltimore offense hasn’t exactly been explosive this season– they’ve produced fewer than 27 points in 6 of their 9 games– and the Titans have one of the AFC’s better secondaries, so it’s going to be difficult for Joe Flacco to move the ball through the air. Consequently, it’s tough to rationalize backing the Ravens as a 10-point favorite here.
Three reasons to back Baltimore
1. The Ravens have been better than the Titans in every conceivable way this season: they have a better record, they’ve performed better against the spread, they score more points, and they allow fewer points. A Baltimore victory is a near-certainty here, margin of victory is the only issue, and the Ravens have won 4 games by 18 points or more this season, so they’ve certainly proven capable of covering a 10-point number.
2. Baltimore has a dominant defense that ranks 5th in points allowed, surrendering just 19.3 points per game. They’ll feast on an anemic Titans offense that has produced 17 points or fewer in three consecutive games and will be led by a rookie quarterback.
3. The Titans can’t stop the run– they rank 28th in rushing defense, surrendering nearly 135 yards per game on the ground– and the Ravens have a top-10 rushing offense to go along with an explosive passing attack. It’s difficult to imagine Tennessee slowing down the Baltimore offense, making a blowout the most likely outcome here.
Prediction
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