ATP Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters – Monday 16th April until Sunday 22nd April 2012
Juan Monaco made it five winning selections from the previous six weeks with a three-set defeat of John Isner in Houston last week. Monaco performed well throughout the event and was a deserved winner on Sunday night, taking the profit/loss for my BETDAQ column to a couple of pence shy of the £100 mark, for a £10 level stake.
This coming week sees the return of an ATP 1000 event to the tour and the third of nine such tournaments on the calendar is the red clay of Monte-Carlo where Rafael Nadal will be looking for his EIGHTH straight victory in the event, an unprecedented statistic in ATP history.
The Spaniard had to withdraw from the previous 1000 event at the Sony Ericsson Open in Miami due to what appear to be becoming persistent knee issues. Nadal must feel that the injury has improved somewhat for him to be participating this week. I just can’t see him jeopardising his involvement at Roland Garros next month in search for another Monte-Carlo title. The draw has certainly been kinder to him than Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray. The seeded players within Nadal’s half of the draw include Florian Mayer, Feliciano Lopez, Gilles Simon, Janko Tipsarevic, Nicolas Almagro, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Compare that with Tomas Berdych, David Ferrer, and Juan Monaco in the opposite side and it is clear to see Nadal’s advantage. Perhaps Rafa has benefitted from the absence of Roger Federer and Juan Martin Del Potro who no doubt would’ve found themselves in his section. Injury permitting, it’d take a brave man to oppose Nadal reaching his eighth consecutive Monte-Carlo final.
Nadal’s likely final opponent in my opinion is the rather all too predictable Novak Djokovic. Despite Nadal leading Djokovic 16-14 in the head-to-head department, Djokovic has now won their last seven matches and would likely enter their 31st encounter in a positive frame of mind, knowing he seems to have Nadal’s card marked. The red clay however may consequently level the playing field. Nadal was only just touched off 7-5 in the fifth and final set back in January at the Australian Open and assuming Nadal is not only fit enough to make the final but do so with the relative ease I’m anticipating, I’ll take Nadal over Djokovic for this week only.
It is likely that for some people, backing Djokovic and/or Nadal at close to even money isn’t their idea of fun so with just the one event this week, it might be worth seeking out a little bit of value where players present a decent back to lay opportunity. Whilst I don’t see many (if any) other players making the final this week, I wouldn’t put anybody off placing a couple of quid on David Ferrer. The Spanish number two owes me absolutely nothing, having doubly obliged at Buenos Aires and Acapulco back in February for my BETDAQ column followers. A likely quarter-final meeting with Novak Djokovic awaits. Ferrer actually leads their head-to-head record for clay court matches 3-1 and certainly won’t be a pushover for the Serbian.
Another lively Spanish outsider may be the enigma that is Fernando Verdasco. A previous finalist in Monte-Carlo, Verdasco can boast victories over Ferrer, Berdych, and Djokovic at this tournament alone and if he can gather a bit of momentum this coming week, he has every chance of advancing to the latter stages at the Monte-Carlo Country Club. He is the sort of player however who may just as easily put in a timid display against first round opponent Olivier Rochus so I’d advise caution if siding with Verdasco this week.
CHRIS’S SELECTIONS
Main Selection – Rafael Nadal
Outsiders – David Ferrer & Fernando Verdasco
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