T20 WORLD CUP: Our cricket tipster The Edge previews Saturday T20 World Cup games between AUSTRALIA v WEST INDIES and ENGLAND v SOUTH AFRICA both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
AUSTRALIA v WEST INDIES
MATCH OVERVIEW:
It’s the final day in Group 1 at the T20 World Cup on Saturday and we have a massive double header with everything on the line. It’s going to be a fantastic day, and all cricket bets are 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange too! We start in Abu Dhabi with Australia taking on the West Indies. At the start of the day, Australia currently hold second position on net run rate over South Africa and they have the same number of points. West Indies have been very poor in this tournament with their only win coming against the hapless Bangladesh, so it would be a shock to not see Australia in the semi-finals.
That being said, these West Indies batsmen are always dangerous when they are wrote off. The fallout from their World Cup performance is ongoing, with Dwayne Bravo retiring from International cricket. This was always likely given the age profile of their squad, and I’m sure he won’t be the last to retire after this tournament. They also have form issues, even leaving aside the poor form of Chris Gayle, Andre Russell is on a terrible run at the moment with only one score in double figures from his last seven T20 International innings.
So, the path is clear for an Australian win, and they have an advantage with the net run rate too. Their net run rate is currently 1.031 while South Africa’s is 0.742. It’s hard to see that really turning around given the strength of England but you never know on these wickets. Australia can put the question to bed here with a big win however!
WEATHER AND PITCH WATCH:
Abu Dhabi has been tough to get a read on. We haven’t really seen an even game here, with a lot of “minnow” action. Pakistan scored 189/2 here but that was against Namibia, however Sri Lanka also managed that score here on Thursday against the West Indies to win by 20 runs. That was a night game however, and there will be no dew today. I would suggest a par score is 160-165 for a day game, however you have to factor in how poor the West Indies batsmen have been so I wouldn’t expect a big score if they batted first. Australia also bowled Bangladesh out for 73 in their last game, but Bangladesh have been very poor. Perhaps with this being a day game, you would bat first – chasing has been a clear advantage at night but batting during the day makes sense.
RECOMMENDED BET:
Australia should really win this game, and they are worth backing at 1.38. They have been very good at this World Cup, apart from being outclassed by England but England look top notch so far. The only danger to an Australian win is West Indies swinging for the hills and getting success. I have a feeling they will chose to swing at everything here – they have nothing to lose and they generally play gun-ho cricket anyway. That can put Australia under pressure, but West Indies will also need a lot of luck given the poor form of their batsmen. I think a collapse is more likely, and an easy Australian win to book their ticket in the semi-finals.
The Edge Says:
Two points win Australia to beat West Indies at 1.38 with BETDAQ Exchange.
View the market here -> https://bit.ly/BDQAusWI
IN-RUNNING STRATEGY:
Although the general theme at this World Cup has been to back the side who bowls first, I feel batting first here during the day might provide a little edge. The bowlers have to deal with the heat, and if you’re well set heading into the last eight to five overs we can see carnage. That’s definitely an angle to look at when we get there – for example if Australia bat first you can see the wheels coming off the West Indies at that stage. As I said above, I feel the West Indies will swing for the hills here, so be very careful when they are batting – their batters are in poor form, so they are worth taking on but they will strike a few sixes and move the market at times. I would keep stakes low when looking for trades on the West Indies while batting.
ENGLAND v SOUTH AFRICA
MATCH OVERVIEW:
All South African eyes will be on Australia v West Indies in the morning to see what they have to do here as they take on England in Sharjah. This is a tricky game to actually form a plan for at the start of the day for a number of reasons. England are already certain of first because of their net run rate, so they will likely opt to give some players some game time. They may not do that, because everyone is in good touch and playing well so they won’t want to change the balance of the team, but they might so watch out for the team news.
Then from an South African angle, by the time this game starts it might be close to impossible for them to catch Australia if Australia hammer the West Indies and they can’t close the net run rate, or West Indies might shock Australia and then South Africa have a golden chance. Then there’s also the option of a close Australian win, and South Africa having to win in X amount of overs or score X amount of runs. There’s plenty of options here, and the market is going to react to all of them in-play so that’s definitely an angle to play here. There’s no point South Africa just winning, they have to go for it and try close the net run rate.
Leaving aside all the possible scenarios, England have been top class at this World Cup and it’s hard to see South Africa beating them. This England side looks like it has everything – power hitters, fast bowlers and calm in high pressure moments. It will take a very good side to beat them.
WEATHER AND PITCH WATCH:
South Africa won’t be unhappy that this game is in Sharjah. The boundaries are small and we can get a very heavy dew. Although England beat Sri Lanka by 26 runs here in, the game was actually in the balance in the chase as Sri Lanka traded odds on at one point. The dew was heavy, and ball was very difficult to grip. If South Africa were going to beat England, you’d have to fancy it happening at this ground. I think bowling first will be a massive advantage here. We have seen some low scores here too, and batting first has looked difficult.
RECOMMENDED BET:
Although I highly rate this English side – I actually think they probably win the tournament to be honest. They have essentially “nothing to play for” in this game with first spot already in the bag. I feel conditions in Sharjah might make this a 50/50 game, with the toss a very big part of that. The chasing side will have an edge here, so from all that point of view I think a small bet on South Africa is a good call at 2.8. You have to keep stakes small here before the off considering all the unknowns on what South Africa will need to do. I expect better opportunity in-play, but South Africa offer value at 2.8 from a pre-off point of view.
The Edge Says:
One point win South Africa to beat England at 2.8 with BETDAQ Exchange.
View the market here -> https://bit.ly/BDQEngSA
IN-RUNNING STRATEGY:
I’ve listed a lot of possible in-running strategy above, and this is definitely going to be a big game for in-running trading. Given all the possible scenarios for South Africa, we could see some wild in-running swings in the market. And that being said, we could also see their chances gone with Australia having a big win over West Indies. Despite what South Africa may or may not need to do, bowling first will definitely provide an edge here, and I would look for trades on the team who bowls first and chases. Even Sri Lanka moved from 1.06 to odds on here chasing down a big England score, so there’s a lot of opportunity here with the dew and small boundaries in the chase.
