FRIDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews the Friday night Premier League clash between BURNLEY v LUTON TOWN with a recommended BETDAQ bet.

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7.45pm It’s been a busy run of Cup action with the FA Cup Third Round and Carabao Cup Semi-Finals, but the Premier League returns on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with Friday Night Football. Burnley host Luton Town in a massive relegation battle – it’s very likely both sides will go down in the end this season, but the loser will be in a terrible position. A draw would do no good for either side too. With Luton having a four points advantage over Burnley with a game in hand, they have a much better chance of staying up and this is a must win game for them.

Quite clearly it’s a must win game for Burnley too given their position. They weren’t fancied to be involved in the relegation battle this season after their performance in the Championship last season and their squad (on paper), but they have been very poor. Eleven points from 20 games just isn’t good enough, and their stats have been poor too. The reality is we have two average sides here. Both of them have struggled to create chances this season and they’ve been equally poor at the back too.

Their average xG created doesn’t make for good reading. Burnley have an average of 1.06 – the fourth worst attacking record in the Premier League, while for Luton it’s even worse at 0.93. Luton have been worse at the back – their average xG conceded is 1.79 which is the second worst record at the back; only Sheffield United have given away more chances. Burnley have the fourth worst figure at the back with an average xG conceded of 1.63. At least their consistent being the fourth worst, but put both of the figures together and it’s easy to see why these two are massively odds on to get relegated.

Burnley come into this game as the hot favourites. They are trading 2.0 at the time of writing with Luton Town 4.1 and the draw is 3.75. I have to say the 2.0 feels very short on Burnley – I know that they have home advantage here but I really see a closer game than those odds suggest. Both sides have been poor this season, and from a value point of view it’s going to be hard to get away from the Burnley lay. Both sides have had recent wins, and they would have been gutted to see Nottingham Forest put in back-to-back wins over Newcastle and Manchester United.

I’ve always felt that if one of these sides are to stay up, it will be Nottingham Forest to take their place but those wins along with the new manager really put a spanner in the works. The reality is both these sides are likely to go down this season, the winner will give themselves a fighting chance while the loser is nailed on for relegation. As you can see by the figures above, both are limited going forward and too open at the back. I just feel the 2.0 on Burnley is too short here, and I’m very happy with that lay rather than look for something in the goals market. Luton can get a result here.

The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Burnley to beat Luton Town at 2.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

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