MONDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Monday’s three games with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FULHAM V LEICESTER
3pm It’s a blockbuster Premier League Bank Holiday Monday on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have a huge day ahead with three games that are going to have a big impact on the relegation battle Everton and Nottingham Forest start the day sitting in the bottom three with Leicester just ahead of them; however Leicester have the same amount of points as Everton and they’re only one ahead of Nottingham Forest. One of the three clubs involved today will definitely go down, maybe even two – the stakes couldn’t be higher! We start the day with Fulham hosting Leicester, and this is a very important game for Leicester. They have to play Liverpool and Newcastle in their next two games, and depending on other results they could find themselves under immense pressure heading into their final game against West Ham. Fulham come into the game off the back of three losses, but they have had to play Manchester City and Liverpool so I wouldn’t read too much into those games. I would be more worried about the fact that they have been consistently conceding a lot of chances this season – their average xG conceded this season is 1.9, but their actual goals conceded works out at an average of 1.4.
That’s a huge difference, and basically sides just haven’t been taking their chances against Fulham this season. Their issues at the back will have to be a major focus for management during the summer; otherwise they could find themselves in the relegation battle next season. Leicester have switched things on at the right time – they have got three results from their last three games, and they have created their three biggest xG figures too. They have finished the games against Wolves, Leeds and Everton with xG figures of 2.94, 2.34 and 3.06. Worryingly they conceded xG figures of 2.08 to Leeds and 3.35 to Everton, so clearly they still have issues! You have to say that they are peaking at the right time though, and we have an exceptionally open market here. Leicester are the marginal favourites at 2.72, but there’s only six ticks between the sides as Fulham are 2.78. I’m going to stay away from the match odds market because this game screams goals in my opinion. Over 2.5 goals looks cracking value at 1.82 given both sides like to play an open game, and Leicester really haven’t been holding back recently. At the odds it’s worth a Max Bet for me.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.82 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FulLei
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Following their 1-0 win at the King Power Stadium in January, Fulham are looking to complete the Premier League double over Leicester for the second time, previously doing so in 2003-04.
● Leicester won 2-0 on their last Premier League visit to Fulham in February 2021 – they’ve never won consecutive away league games against the Cottagers before.
● Leicester have won just two of their last 14 Premier League away games against London sides (D3 L9), beating Brentford 2-1 in October 2021 and West Ham 2-0 in November this season.
● Fulham have lost their last two Premier League games on a Monday, last losing more consecutively between January and October 2004 (4).
● Leicester won three consecutive Premier League away games without conceding a single goal before the World Cup break. Since the resumption, they’ve won just one of their nine on the road (D2 L6), failing to keep a single clean sheet.
● Fulham have lost three of their last four Premier League home games (W1), as many as they had in their first 13 at Craven Cottage this season (W6 D4).
● Only Southampton (24) have conceded the first goal in more different Premier League games than Leicester this season (21). The Foxes have conceded first in 16 of their last 17, losing the only game in which they opened the scoring in this run (1-2 vs Crystal Palace).
● Leicester have earned five points from their last three Premier League games (W1 D2), despite conceding the first goal each time. It’s one more point than they’d earned in their previous 10 games (W1 D1 L8), while they last had a longer unbeaten run between May-August 2022 (5 games).
● James Maddison has more Premier League goal involvements than any other Leicester player this season (17 – 9 goals, 8 assists). He’s assisted in his last two appearances, with Riyad Mahrez the last Foxes player to do so in three in a row in February 2016.
● Jamie Vardy has scored in his last two Premier League appearances for Leicester, having netted just once in his first 31 games this term. He last scored in more consecutively in September/October 2021 (4).
BRIGHTON V EVERTON
5.30pm Brighton host Everton next, and at the moment you’d have to say things look bleak for Everton. They have a difficult fixture list to finish the season; they meet Brighton away here and then have to play Manchester City in their next fixture. Everton fans will be keeping both eyes on the sides around them rather than their team – the best they can hope for is to go into the final two games not that far behind. I have to say though I feel Everton will go down – they face Wolves away from home and they have been much better with home advantage this season, and then play Bournemouth on the final day who have been finishing the season strongly. The only positive is both of those sides will have nothing to play for. Everton and Leeds are the sides with the difficult fixture list – so the results here from Leicester and Nottingham Forest could be absolutely massive. Brentford left it late to win on Thursday night against Manchester United, but they gained their revenge for the FA Cup Semi-Final with a 99th minute winner. They have been playing excellent football recently – even the recent losses against Nottingham Forest and Spurs, they created a lot. They finished the Spurs game with an xG of over three times what they conceded.
If I was at Brighton the only thing I would be worrying about this summer was getting a natural goal scoring striker that fits into the system. They really should score more goals! This is an ideal opportunity to score a few goals though because Everton have been conceding goals and chances for fun this season. After a very positive start for Sean Dyche, they have conceded 11 goals in five games, and that includes a 0-0 away to Crystal Palace. It’s not that much of a negative because of a change in manager, but their away form this season has been poor. They’ve only managed 11 points from their 17 away games. It’s hard to see how they can outplay a side like Brighton away from home too. The market is reasonably confident on the home win with Brighton trading 1.4 at the time of writing, but I’m going to take a chance with a decent price here. Brighton have been creating so many chances lately, they could run riot here. Any Other Home Win is 4.8 in the Correct Score market and that’s worth a small investment.
The Striker Says:
One point win Any Other Home Win Correct Score at 4.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriEve
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Following their 4-1 win at Goodison Park in January, Brighton are looking to complete their first ever league double over Everton.
● Everton won this exact fixture 2-0 last season but have never won consecutive away league games against Brighton before.
● Brighton have scored seven goals in their last two Premier League games against Everton, beating them 4- 1 in the reverse fixture this season. It’s just one fewer than they’d netted in their first nine against the Toffees in the competition (8).
● Brighton have won five of their seven Premier League games against sides in the relegation zone this season (D1 L1). Both failures so far have been against Nottingham Forest, including a 3-1 loss in their last such match last month.
● Everton are winless in their last 18 Premier League away games against sides in the top half of the table (D7 L11), though their last such victory was at fourth placed Brighton in August 2021 (2-0).
● Brighton have won just one of their 12 Premier League games played on a Monday (D8 L3), though it did come in their only such game so far this season, beating Southampton 3-1 on Boxing Day.
● Everton are winless in 13 Premier League away games (D6 L7), though four of their last five have finished level. Of the 17 teams to play across both campaigns, the Toffees have won fewer away games (3), fewer away points (21) and scored fewer away goals (28) than any other Premier League side since the start of last season.
● Everton manager Sean Dyche is unbeaten in all five of his Premier League away games against Brighton (W2 D3), winning 3-0 in his most recent visit with Burnley in February 2022.
● Brighton forward Danny Welbeck has been involved in eight goals in his eight Premier League starts against Everton, scoring four and assisting four. Only against West Ham (9 – 6 goals, 3 assists) has he been involved in more goals in the competition.
● Alex Iwobi has been involved in eight Premier League goals this season (2 goals, 6 assists), more than any other Everton player. Only in 2018-19 while at Arsenal has the Nigerian been involved in more in a single campaign (9 – 3 goals, 6 assists).
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V SOUTHAMPTON
8pm We finish Bank Holiday Monday with an absolutely massive game for Nottingham Forest as they host Southampton. Although it’s not mathematically confirmed yet, it’s pretty certain Southampton are going down. They just haven’t been good enough this season – their decline has set in over the last few years, and they will find it tough to bounce straight back up from the Championship too. This is an absolutely must win game for Nottingham Forest given the situation. They will kick off sitting in the bottom three, but what an opportunity to pick up three points. It’s been well documented that Forest have been woeful away from home this season so time is running out – they must win their home games to stay up. They have only managed six points from 17 away games this season – that’s the worst record in the Premier League. Southampton haven’t had many positives this season, but the only positive thing I would say here is that the Saints have managed more points away from home this season compared to at home.
Southampton have only managed ten points at home all season, and that’s why they are going down. Forest are going to have a difficult fixture list to finish the season too – they are away to Chelsea next, then have Arsenal at home and play away to Crystal Palace on the final day. A positive is that Palace will have nothing to play for, but they can’t be relying on that game with their away form. Despite all the issues at Chelsea, they are unlikely to pick up points against Chelsea or Arsenal either. All the pressure is on this game, and they are trading 2.22 at the time of writing with Southampton 3.6 and the draw is 3.6 too. Both sides have obviously been poor this season, their place in the table reflects that, and there actually isn’t that much between them on the stats. Both of them struggle to create chances, and their scoring less than one goal per game in the Premier League this season. I feel the 2.22 is a little short on Forest, especially as their performance level isn’t much better than Southampton’s, and the draw is worth a small bet at 3.6.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NotSou
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Nottingham Forest won the reverse fixture against Southampton 1-0 in January – only twice have they done the double over Saints as a top-flight side, doing so in 1969-70 and 1995-96.
● Southampton won 3-0 on their last league visit to Nottingham Forest in the Championship in January 2012, while this is their first Premier League game at the City Ground since a 1-1 draw in December 1998.
● Nottingham Forest’s only Premier League away win so far this season has come against Southampton – they’ve only done the double against a team in one of their last three top-flight campaigns (including this one), doing so against Spurs in 1996-97.
● Nottingham Forest are winless in their last 12 Premier League games played on Mondays (D7 L5), since a 3-1 win at Leeds United in April 1996.
● Southampton have lost their last three Premier League games played on Monday, last losing more such games consecutively between April 2000 and April 2002 (6).
● Nottingham Forest won 3-1 against Brighton in their last Premier League home game, scoring 3+ goals for the first time in 55 top-flight matches at the City Ground (3-0 v QPR in May 1996).
● Southampton have lost their last five Premier League games in May, since beating Fulham 3-1 in 2021. Only in April (6 between 2000-2001) have Saints lost more consecutively in a single month.
● Nottingham Forest are without a clean sheet in any of their last 13 Premier League games, since beating Leeds 1-0 in February. They’ve won just one of these 13 matches (D3 L9), though that victory was in their last home game against Brighton.
● Having won two of their first three Premier League games under Ruben Selles, Southampton are now winless in their last nine (D3 L6). They last went longer without a win between September and December 2018 (12 games), with 10 of those coming under Mark Hughes.
● Seven of Brennan Johnson’s eight Premier League goals for Nottingham Forest this season have come in home games. Since the start of last season, he’s scored 17 league goals at the City Ground (including play- offs), 10 more than any other Forest player in that time.