SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews a busy Saturday in the Premier League starting with Fulham against an under pressure Man U at 12.30pm. All games include recommended BETDAQ bets.
FULHAM V MANCHESTER UNITED
12.30pm It’s a very busy Saturday in the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week with seven fixtures to enjoy! We start the action with Fulham hosting Manchester United, and probably a game that will offer the most talking points of the day. What is actually going on at Manchester United, everyone has an opinion but the reality is their performances this season just haven’t been good enough. They played Newcastle midweek in the Carabao Cup, and got another hammering at Old Trafford. Erik ten Hag made a host of changes, but it’s hard to know how things turn around with Manchester United. Roy Keane said it before though; these players have thrown managers under the bus time and time again, and they will do it again. They are doing it now. Obviously the situation with the owners is a terrible situation, but surely personally responsibility kicks in at some point for the players. They are throwing away chances to win trophies or play in Europe next season through not only lack of quality, but lack of effort too. The closing down is basically non-existent this season.
Fulham will be eying this as a brilliant opportunity to bag three points and pile more pressure on ten Hag. It’s hard to support United in any form at the moment, but nevertheless they do come into the game as the favourites. United are trading 2.24 at the time of writing with Fulham at 3.5 and the draw is 3.7. We landed a Max Lay on United midweek in the Carabao Cup, and another Max Bet against them with Manchester City at the weekend. I’m keen to take them on again here; however without stakes being so high. Fulham’s stats are pretty poor – they have an average xG created of just over 1.0 this season which is the fourth worst attacking record. They basically concede the same level of chances as United though, and given how much United have struggled I just can’t have them as short as 2.24 here. They might be able to grind out a win, but they just aren’t playing well enough to justify odds of 2.24 at the moment.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat Fulham at 2.24 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FlhMun
BRENTFORD V WEST HAM
3pm We have five games kicking off at 3pm this Saturday, and we start with Brentford hosting West Ham. This should be a good game, and probably a very even one too. Both sides are sitting beside each other in the table and to be honest both have been playing average football this season. West Ham had a decent start, but they have a lot of red flags in their stats. Their average xG conceded is a whopping 1.84 which is exceptionally high. Only Sheffield United have been conceding more chances this season – they are basically playing at relegation standard at the back! Eventually sides are going to start taking their chances against them, and maybe that’s creeping in as they are without a win in three Premier League games. They played Arsenal midweek in the Carabao Cup, and they had a superb night! They recorded an impressive 3-1 win. They must be buzzing coming into this fixture, but Brentford will be too after a 2-0 win at Chelsea last weekend.
Brentford come into the game as the favourites. They are trading 2.16 at the time of writing with West Ham 3.55 and the draw is 3.8. Brentford have been playing a very open game this season, and generally they are a very entertaining side to watch! Their average xG created is 1.49 and their average conceded is 1.46. They are basically conceding what they are creating which might be mid-table form, but it’s good for the neutral. I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market here because Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.83 which is a very appealing bet in my opinion. Both sides have been scoring goals, and they are both conceding plenty of chances too. Brentford home games have been a lot more open than their away games too, and I just feel so much points to plenty of goals here. The 1.83 is worth a confident bet.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BrtWhu
BURNLEY V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm Next we have the most open market of the day as Burnley host Crystal Palace. We have an exceptionally open betting heat here. Crystal Palace come into the game as the favourites at 2.72 with Burnley 2.98 and the draw is 3.3. It’s hard to have confidence in either side here, and the reality is we’ll probably have a reasonably low quality game here. This is a classic game that will only get five minutes or less on Match of the Day unless something majorly dramatic happens. Burnley are really struggling this season; they’ve only managed four points in ten games – their sole win came against Luton Town who have obviously been fairly average this season as well. Coming into this season Burnley weren’t thought about as major relegation candidates but they have a big battle on their hands. Their stats are poor too; they are one of three sides averaging an xG of under 1.0. Their average created is just 0.86 – only Sheffield United have created less.
Not only are they creating little chances, they are conceding an average xG of 1.69 which is the fifth worst record at the back in the Premier League this season. Put all that together, and they are in big trouble. Crystal Palace have turned into your classic low-to-mid table side. Their xG performance level is -0.04, basically marginally conceding a little more than they are creating. They should finish safely in mid-table with those performance levels. This should be an interesting game; Crystal Palace play to an average level but if they beat Burnley comfortably then you’d assume that Burnley are in big trouble; if they aren’t already! I don’t have a strong opinion on either side here, and I can see them cancelling each other out. Burnley having home advantage should bring the sides closer together, even if their performance level is lower. This is definitely a game for low stakes, and I’m happy with a small bet on the draw at 3.3.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BurCry
EVERTON V BRIGHTON
3pm Next we have an interesting game as Everton host Brighton. There’s a lot going on at Everton this season; they were heavy candidates for relegation at the start of the season, their stats have improved a lot and now they are starting to win games. With an average xG created of 1.57, it would be a surprise if they were involved in the relegation battle. Just when things have started to go well on the pitch, they have had the threat of a 12 point deduction for breaching profit and sustainability rules. Absolutely laughable when you look at what’s happened at Manchester City. What will happen at Everton will no doubt rumble on, but 12 points would be absolutely huge. Brighton come into this game as the favourites, but they are without a win in four games. They have had to play Manchester City and Liverpool in that run of course, but the 1-1 draw to Fulham with home advantage last weekend is obviously disappointing, as was the 6-1 hammering at Aston Villa. Brighton have been playing an exceptionally open game, and sometimes that just doesn’t work out for them. They are fantastic going forward, but they are conceding a few sloppy goals they shouldn’t.
Looking at the stats, Brighton’s performance level is pretty much in line with Liverpool. For example, Brighton’s average xG created is 1.75 and Liverpool’s is 1.79. Their average conceded is the same at 1.38. From those figures however, Brighton have conceded ten more goals than Liverpool this season. It used to be Brighton created a lot and didn’t score, now their issues are conceding sloppy goals! Everton have been playing much better football at home, and you can definitely see why Brighton aren’t trading odds on here. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market because I really like Both Teams To Score at 1.57. Everton’s average xG created at home this season is a very high 1.86, while we know Brighton have been excellent going forward. I don’t see either side sitting back either, and we should have quite an open end-to-end game here.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 1.57 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EveBha
MANCHESTER CITY V BOURNEMOUTH
3pm Next we have the shortest price of the weekend in the Premier League, probably one of the shortest prices around all football this weekend, as Manchester City host Bournemouth. The market can’t see past a comfortable home win here, and City are trading as short as 1.12 at the time of writing. Bournemouth have had a very difficult start to the season, but they finally got a massive win under their belt last weekend at home to Burnley. Just went they finally get a win; their next two fixtures are Liverpool in the Carabao Cup and Manchester City in the Premier League! Talk about worst place to come. That win over Burnley could prove vital in the relegation battle, the reality is anything away to City is an absolute bonus. I feel it’s a case of how many goals will City score here rather than will they win. They hammered Manchester United in the Derby last weekend, and created a massive xG figure while doing it. Their average xG created this season is 1.97 and their average conceded is 0.85. Title winning stats, and it’s hard to fault them.
With City trading so short in the match odds market, we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value. Attention goes to the goal and handicap markets, and it’s all about how many chances at Bournemouth stop here. Their average xG conceded this season is 1.78 which is the third worst record in the Premier League – only Sheffield United and West Ham have been worse at the back. Coming to City with stats like that never ends well, and I expect a very comfortable City win here. Any Other Home Win (Manchester City to score four or more goals and win) is trading 2.43 at the time of writing and this looks a nice position. This is the type of game where Haaland is here to boost is record, and with Bournemouth conceding so many chances this will be one way traffic for City.
The Striker Says:
One point win Any Other Home Win Correct Score at 2.43 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciBth
SHEFFIELD UNITED V WOLVES
3pm We finish the 3pm fixtures with Sheffield United hosting Wolves. Another hammering for Sheffield United last weekend, this time against Arsenal, left them sitting nailed to the bottom of the table with only one point from ten games. With Bournemouth winning last weekend, they are the only side left in the Premier League this season without a win. Looking at their performance levels, you’d wonder where that win comes from. Some sides have issues going forward, and some have issues at the back – Sheffield United have both. Their average xG created is 0.78 which is the lowest figure in the Premier League this season while their average xG conceded is a whopping 2.09 which is the highest xG conceded figure this season! What can you do with that; good luck to the manager, basically. Their performance level is -1.31, and the closest side to them has a performance level of -0.83. If you look at the major European leagues of Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and Bundesliga – Sheffield United are the only side with a performance level of -1.0 or worse. They are quite literally the worst side in the major leagues this season, and by a distance.
They have become red-hot favourites to go down, even Luton Town have more chance of staying up this season – although likely to join them! On paper, this is a fixture where they have a decent chance of a result – Wolves are an average side, although playing levels above Sheffield United. Wolves are favourites at 2.02 with Sheffield United 4.1 and the draw is 3.7. Wolves have reasonably poor stats, it’s actually hard to be confident in them getting the job done away from home here. Their performance level is -0.55 for example, so they are conceding more chances than they are creating. It’s just Sheffield United have been so poor, there’s almost a gulf in class between them and the rest of the Premier League. I can see Wolves grinding out a win here, and I want to keep stakes small. I’m going to take a chance on the 1-0 score line for Wolves in the Correct Score market.
The Striker Says:
One point win Wolves to beat Sheffield United 1-0 Correct Score at 9.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ShuWol
NEWCASTLE V ARSENAL
5.30pm We finish a brilliant Saturday with the highlight of the day as Newcastle host Arsenal. This should be a cracker – these two sides have played some top class football this season, and we should have a very entertaining game here. They both had very different experiences midweek in the Carabao Cup with Arsenal crashing out against West Ham and Newcastle hammering Manchester United at Old Trafford. A win here would be massive for Newcastle, and also badly needed as they are becoming a little adrift in the Top Four race. It was always going to be a massive ask for them to hang onto their Top Four spot, but they start the weekend already six points behind Liverpool sitting in fourth. They’ve dropped points recently against West Ham and Wolves – both 2-2 draws away from home. At least you can say Newcastle have been entertaining to watch! We have a very open market here and Arsenal come into the game as the favourites. They are trading 2.68 with Newcastle 2.88 and the draw is 3.5 at the time of writing.
It’s been hard to fault either see this season. Arsenal have performed better though; their overall performance level is +0.86 while Newcastle’s is +0.49. For Arsenal, that’s the second best figure behind Manchester City in the Premier League. They have been solid at the back with an average xG conceded of just 0.85, and going forward they are creating 1.71. Newcastle have stats that put them into the Top Four, and they have been excellent at home too. Their average xG created at home is a very high 1.92. I think we’ll have a dramatic game here with plenty of chances. I’m happy to skip the match odds market because this game screams goals. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.97 and Both Teams To Score is 1.73. I have to say I like both bets – both sides like to play an open game, and Newcastle generally really go for it at home. I couldn’t put anyone off the BTTS option, but the 1.97 on Overs looks an excellent bet to finish the day!
The Striker Says:
Four points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.97 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NwcArs
