THE STRIKER: previews Saturday’s Premier League matches. The Boxing Day matches include ARSENAL v CHELSEA at 5.30pm. All previews include extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

LEICESTER V MANCHESTER UNITED

12.30pm What a fascinating fixture to kick off Boxing Day! We have a cracking day ahead, made even better by the fact that all football bets are 0% commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange today too! This is a massive clash for both sides as they are both in a fantastic position to challenge for the title – the winner will only progress while the loser will have to regroup. I think it’s fair to say that neither have looked like title winners; but such is the current situation who knows what can happen. Liverpool look a class above; but for an example a win for United would put them only two points behind Liverpool.

It’s been a very busy run for United. They crashed out of the Champions League at the Group stages, and then had a League Cup Quarter Final before Christmas. They have had some solid away performances but it hasn’t been without drama. They tend to concede too many goals and they can’t score 3+ goals every game! If I had to I’d lay United at the odds, but over 2.5 goals jumps off the page at 1.68 here. These two are full of goals at the moment and the way United have been playing just screams goals at both ends. I expect over 2.5 goals to be shorter than 1.6.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.68 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQleimnu

MATCH STATS

  • Leicester City have lost more Premier League games (19) and conceded more Premier League goals (60) against Manchester United than they have versus any other side in the competition.
  • Manchester United have lost just one of their last 22 Premier League meetings with Leicester (W17 D4) and are unbeaten in their last 11 since a 3-5 away loss in September 2014 (W8 D3).
  • Manchester United have scored in each of their last 22 Premier League meetings with Leicester – against no side have they had a longer scoring streak in the competition (also 22 vs Aston Villa between 1997-2008).
  • Since returning to the Premier League in 2014, Leicester have lost five of their six games played on Boxing Day in the competition, winning the other 2-1 against Manchester City in 2018.
  • Manchester United have the most wins (21) and highest win rate (81%) of any Premier League side in Boxing Day games. They’ve lost just two games on 26th December in the competition, against Middlesbrough in 2002 (1-3) and Stoke in 2015 (0-2).
  • Manchester United have won each of their last 10 Premier League away games. In top-flight history, only two sides have ever won 11 in a row on the road – Chelsea between April-December 2008 and Manchester City between May-December 2017.
  • Four of Leicester’s five Premier League defeats this season have come in home games. Indeed, the Foxes have already lost as many home league games this season as they had in the whole of 2019-20 (4).
  • Since their 0-1 home defeat against Arsenal in November, Manchester United are unbeaten in seven Premier League games (W6 D1), with only Liverpool (10) on a longer current run without defeat in the competition.
  • Since Brendan Rodgers’ first game in charge of Leicester, Jamie Vardy has scored more Premier League goals than any other player (43). Only Luis Suárez (54) scored more Premier League goals under the Northern Irishman than Vardy has managed so far.
  • Since his Premier League debut in February, Man Utd’s Bruno Fernandes has been involved in more goals than any other player in the competition (29 – 17 goals, 12 assists). The Portuguese has been involved in 50% of the Red Devils’ league goals in that time (29/58).

ASTON VILLA V CRYSTAL PALACE

3pm Aston Villa are one of my best bets today. I believe they are an excellent value bet at 2.0. They have been playing some impressive football for a while now, and they should be able to deal with this Crystal Palace side. We landed a nice bet on them to beat West Brom last time out, and now they can do the same to Palace. You only have to look at their xG figures to see how good they have been playing recently. They are creating a huge volume of chances and against a Palace side that doesn’t create much – I can see only one result here.

It’s actually very tempting to have a max bet on at this price. However the main reason why I haven’t pulled the trigger on a max bet is Palace do generally create about one goal per game looking at their xG figures. They were tonked 7-0 by Liverpool before Christmas but they did manage a solid 1-1 draw with Spurs recently when they had home advantage. Villa impress me a lot however, and even in their 0-0 draw with Burnley they create an xG of 2.05. When you’re creating that much, you’re going to win more than you lose and at odds of 2.0 they are a very good value bet to outscore Palace.

The Striker Says:
Four points win Aston Villa to beat Crystal Palace at 2.0 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQavlcry

MATCH STATS

  • Aston Villa have won two of their last three Premier League games against Crystal Palace (L1), as many as they had in their previous 12 against them in the competition (W2 D5 L5).
  • Crystal Palace have won just one of their eight Premier League away games against Aston Villa (D3 L4), beating them 1-0 in December 2013.
  • Crystal Palace have never scored more than once in 17 away league games against Aston Villa (W3 D4 L10), netting 11 goals in total in that run.
  • Aston Villa have won just one of their last 10 Premier League matches on Boxing Day (D4 L5), though this did come against Norwich last season. They last won top-flight games on consecutive Boxing Days in 1988/1989.
  • Of all teams to play at least 10 Premier League games on Boxing Day, Crystal Palace’s matches have seen the lowest goals-per-game ratio (1.5), with the Eagles scoring eight and conceding seven in their 10 matches.
  • Aston Villa have kept seven Premier League clean sheets so far this season, more than any other side and as many as they kept in the whole of 2019-20. The Villans haven’t conceded in any of their last three Premier League games, last having a longer run of top-flight shutouts in February 2010 (4).
  • Crystal Palace have conceded in each of their last 13 Premier League games, since beating Southampton 1-0 on the opening weekend. The Eagles conceded as many goals in their 0-7 defeat to Liverpool last time out as they had in their six previous league games combined.
  • This will be Crystal Palace boss Roy Hodgson’s 341st Premier League game in charge, overtaking Rafael Benítez into the top 10 for all-time games managed in the competition.
  • Aston Villa’s Anwar El-Ghazi has scored three goals in his last three Premier League games, as many as he had in his previous 34 in the competition.
  • Crystal Palace’s Nathaniel Clyne has scored three of his four Premier League goals against Aston Villa, netting with three of his seven shots against the Villans. With his other 88 shots in the top-flight, he’s scored just once, against Liverpool in August 2014.

FULHAM V SOUTHAMPTON

3pm An interesting fixture, and a massive one for Fulham who were in the bottom three for Christmas Day. After their recent results though they are right in the mix and will be hopeful of battling to stay up this season. This should be a good game, as Southampton have been excellent this season. They lost 1-0 to Man City before Christmas, but there’s no shame in that – it was probably more disappointing that they could only draw 1-1 with Arsenal beforehand! Fulham have been playing solid football lately with three deserved draws against Newcastle, Brighton and Liverpool as well as beaten Leicester recently so this will be a tough test for Southampton.

I think the match odds market is priced quite fairly here. I feel the 2.4 on Southampton is the correct price. The bet I like is under 2.5 goals at 1.8. Neither side have had a lot of goals in their recent games, with Southampton generally keeping things very tight bar their game against Manchester United. Fulham have also been very tight at the back lately, keeping Man City down to two goals and Liverpool only one. I’d have unders a lot shorter here.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.8 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQfulsou

MATCH STATS

  • Fulham have lost just one of their seven Premier League home games against Southampton (W4 D2), winning 3-2 in their last such meeting in November 2018.
  • Southampton have won three of their last four Premier League meetings with Fulham (L1), keeping a clean sheet in each victory. Saints had won just one of their first 10 games against Fulham in the competition (D6 L3), conceding in nine of those 10 matches.
  • Fulham haven’t won a home league game on Boxing Day since 2003, drawing three and losing one of their four such games since. However, their last victory at home on 26th December was in a Premier League match against Southampton (2-0).
  • Southampton have won six of their last eight league games on Boxing Day (D1 L1), with their only defeat in that run coming at Tottenham in 2017 (2-5).
  • Fulham have drawn each of their last three Premier League games, as many draws as they’d had in their previous 34 top-flight games (W7 D3 L24).
  • Southampton lost their first two Premier League games against newly promoted teams under Ralph Hasenhüttl but have since won each of their last nine in a row. Saints have never won 10 in a row in the top-flight against newly promoted teams, also winning nine in a row between October 1979 and January 1981.
  • Southampton failed to score in a Premier League game for just the second time this season in their defeat against Man City last time out. They last went consecutive Premier League games without finding the net in September/October 2018 under Mark Hughes (5 games).
  • Fulham’s Aleksandar Mitrovic hasn’t scored in any of his last 10 Premier League games, since netting twice at Leeds in a 3-4 defeat in September. It’s the Serbian’s longest run without a goal in English league football.
  • Southampton’s Danny Ings has scored nine goals in his last 11 Premier League away games – his next goal will be his 50th in the competition (11 for Burnley, 3 for Liverpool, 35 for Southampton).
  • Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse has been involved in seven Premier League goals this season (4 goals, 3 assists). Only in 2019-20 (5 goals, 3 assists) and 2016-17 (4 goals, 4 assists) has he been involved in more in a single campaign.

ARSENAL V CHELSEA

5.30pm Yet another tough fixture for Arsenal as their situation gets more desperate with each passing week. I have to say it will be fascinating to see what the board do with Arteta. How long do they let this situation continue? They are only four points off the bottom three which is incredible when you think about it. There’s a gap starting to show between the bottom six and the rest, and if Chelsea can win here things only get more desperate for Arsenal. Chelsea got back to winning ways too before Christmas with an impressive 3-0 win over West Ham after a poor run of results.

I noted in the preview that they were unlucky to lose against Everton and Wolves, with xG saying they should have had a draw against Everton and a win against Wolves. They have been playing impressive football this season, and while those two losses have knocked them back in their title challenge – they look very good value at 1.99 to beat this Arsenal side. It’s hard to know what to make of Arsenal at the moment – they just aren’t playing good football. They look slow and uninterested – it looks like they want the manager gone to be honest. Even if Arsenal played well, you’d still fancy Chelsea to beat them which makes this 1.99 a cracking bet.

The Striker Says:
Three points win Chelsea to beat Arsenal at 1.99 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQarlche

MATCH STATS

  • Arsenal lost this exact fixture 1-2 last season, despite being 1-0 ahead until the 83rd minute. They’ve not lost back-to-back home league games against Chelsea since November 2009.
  • Chelsea have lost just two of their last 17 Premier League meetings with Arsenal (W9 D6), with both of those defeats coming at the Emirates (0-3 in September 2016, 0-2 in January 2019).
  • The side scoring first won none of the three meetings in all competitions between Arsenal and Chelsea last season (D1 L2), with Arsenal coming from behind to win the FA Cup final in the most recent encounter.
  • Arsenal haven’t lost any of their last 12 Boxing Day home games (W10 D2) since a 0-2 loss against Nottingham Forest in 1987. The Gunners have won each of their last nine such games in the Premier League, including a 2-1 victory over Chelsea in 2001.
  • Chelsea lost 0-2 against Southampton on Boxing Day last season, ending a run of 14 games without defeat on 26th December (W9 D5). The Blues haven’t lost consecutive Boxing Day matches since 1994/1995.
  • Arsenal are winless in their last seven Premier League games (D2 L5) – only once in the competition’s history have they had a longer run without a win, going eight games between November 1992-January 1993.
  • Chelsea haven’t lost three consecutive Premier League away games since February 2019, a run which included a defeat at Arsenal.
  • Two of Arsenal’s four Premier League victories this season have come in London derbies, with the Gunners winning 3-0 at Fulham at 2-1 against West Ham in their opening two games of the campaign.
  • Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored on both of his Boxing Day appearances in the Premier League – he could become the first Arsenal player to score on three consecutive Boxing Day games since Thierry Henry between 2002-2004.
  • Jorginho has scored in each of his last two Premier League games against Arsenal. The last Chelsea player to score in three consecutive Premier League appearances against the Gunners was Didier Drogba in October 2010.

MANCHESTER CITY V NEWCASTLE

8pm Man City are the shortest priced side of any side today as they currently trade just 1.14 at the time of writing! Personally I wouldn’t be backing them at those odds, however they are a must for every BETDAQ Multiple. City should blow this Newcastle side away, even if they haven’t been at their best this season. They sat in the unusual position of 8th place on Christmas Day and their main problems have been going forward. They were poor at the back last season, but you can see by looking at their xG that they just haven’t been creating the same volume of chances that they usually do.

I think the plan for Newcastle here will be pretty straightforward. They will try to defend and frustrate City. That only works if they can stop City from scoring early, otherwise they’ll have to completely change tactics. Although City scored four against Arsenal before Christmas in the League Cup; Arsenal have been woeful this season and City haven’t been scoring the same amount of goals as usual. I’m happy to lay Any Other Home Win (City to score four or more and win) at around 2.6 in the Correct Score market. I expect City to win, but Newcastle to keep the scoreline in check.

The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Any Other Home Win Correct Score at 2.6 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmcinwc

MATCH STATS

  • Manchester City have won each of their last 11 Premier League home games against Newcastle, scoring 39 goals and conceding just seven in return. It’s the Citizens’ longest winning home run against an opponent in their top-flight history.
  • Newcastle haven’t won any of their last 16 away league games against Man City (D2 L14), last winning such a game against them in September 2000 (1-0). Their current run of 11 straight away defeats against Man City is their longest such losing streak in their league history.
  • Manchester City have scored in each of their last 23 Premier League games against Newcastle (61 goals in total) – only Arsenal have had a longer run of scoring in consecutive games against an opponent in the competition (24 vs West Bromwich Albion).
  • Manchester City lost their last Boxing Day game in the Premier League, 1-2 against Leicester in 2018. They’ve not lost consecutive such matches since a run of three between 2003-2005.
  • Newcastle have lost each of their last five league Boxing Day games, since a 5-1 win against Stoke in 2013. Indeed, in the Premier League the Magpies have lost more Boxing Day games (14) and conceded more Boxing Day goals (42) than any other side in the competition.
  • Manchester City’s 19 goals in 13 Premier League games this season is their lowest goals-per-game ratio in the competition (1.46) since 2007-08 (1.18). It’s also manager Pep Guardiola’s lowest such ratio in his top-flight managerial career.
  • Sergio Agüero’s 15 Premier League goals for Man City against Newcastle is the most a player has scored for a single team against a specific opponent in the competition’s history.
  • Newcastle boss Steve Bruce is looking for his first ever away Premier League win against Manchester City (P12 W0 D3 L9) – his only away league win against City was in the second tier in November 1999 with Huddersfield Town.
  • Man City’s Kevin De Bruyne has provided 15 Premier League assists in 2020, three short of his record in a single calendar year in the competition (18 in 2017). The Belgian has been involved in seven goals in his seven league games against Newcastle (2 goals, 5 assists).
  • Newcastle’s Callum Wilson has scored eight goals in 12 Premier League games this season, as many as he netted in 35 appearances last term. Only in 2018-19 (14) has he scored more in a single campaign in the competition.

SHEFFIELD UNITED V EVERTON

8pm Sheffield United doubled their points tally before Christmas, however unfortunately for them they only have two points after 14 games! They are nailed to the bottom and getting further and further away with each passing week. It’s been a very unfortunate time for them – they were playing some excellent football before lockdown but haven’t been the same team since. It’s almost hard to believe they finished 9th last season – and indeed were pushing for a Top Six finish before lockdown. For the opening few weeks you thought they’d turn it around – but now realistically they have a mountain to climb. They need a good run to even get back in the mix, and then another good run to get out of danger. That’s unlikely.

The worrying thing from a Sheffield United point of view is their xG numbers after West Brom. I backed them to beat West Brom and was pretty confident looking at their figures. They had been playing OK football and losing – but since they lost to West Brom they have been woeful. And they should have beaten West Brom too; they finished the game with an xG of 3.25! Since then we’ve had xG’s of 0.32, 0.27, 1.33 and 0.52. They were a man down against Brighton but lucky to draw conceding an xG of 3.01. Everton are worth backing at 1.9 as the Blades look to have completely lost their confidence.

The Striker Says:
Two points win Everton to beat Sheffield United at 1.9 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQshueve

MATCH STATS

  • After winning both Premier League meetings with Everton in the inaugural campaign of 1992-93, Sheffield United have won just one of their last six against the Toffees (D2 L3), winning 2-0 at Goodison Park last season.
  • Following their 1-0 win at Bramall Lane last season, Everton are looking to win back-to-back away league games against Sheffield United for the first time since January 1897.
  • The team bottom of the table haven’t won any of their last six Boxing Day Premier League games (D3 L3), with Sunderland the last such side to win against Everton in 2013 (1-0).
  • Sheffield United are unbeaten in their last four league Boxing Day games (W3 D1) since a 1-2 loss at Port Vale in 2014. However, in the top-flight the Blades are winless in their last five December 26th matches, since a 1-0 win at Luton in 1990, a match which featured Chris Wilder for the Blades.
  • Everton are unbeaten in their last five Premier League Boxing Day games (W4 D1) since losing 0-1 against Stoke in 2014. Away from home, the Toffees are unbeaten in their last seven such matches (W4 D3) since a 0-4 loss at Aston Villa in 2005.
  • Sheffield United remain winless in their 14 Premier League games this season (D2 L12) and are just the third side to be without a win by Christmas in English top-flight history after Burnley in 1889-90 and Bolton in 1902-03.
  • Everton have won their last three Premier League games, last winning four in a row in their first four matches of this campaign. The Toffees haven’t had two runs of 4+ wins in the same league season since the 1986-87 campaign.
  • Jayden Bogle scored on his Premier League debut for Sheffield United at Brighton last time out – if he scores here, he would be the youngest player to score on his first two Premier League appearances (20y 152d) since Anthony Martial in September 2015 (19y 289d).
  • Sheffield United’s David McGoldrick has had a hand in five goals in 12 Premier League appearances this season (4 goals, 1 assist), more than he was in 28 games in the competition last season (2 goals, 2 assists).
  • Dominic Calvert-Lewin is Everton’s top scorer so far this season with 11 goals. Only Romelu Lukaku in 2015-16 (15) has scored more for the Toffees before the new year in a single Premier League campaign.

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