SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s Premier League games. What a start to the day at 12.30pm with the Manchester derby at Old Trafford. All previews include a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
MANCHESTER UNITED V MANCHESTER CITY
12.30pm We have another fantastic Saturday in the Premier League this week and we start with an absolute cracker at Old Trafford. All football bets are 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange on Saturday, and there’s no doubt that the Manchester Derby will take on the headlines. After losing 5-0 here to Liverpool, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is under immense pressure – I have to say I was impressed with the way his side bounced back with their 3-0 win over Spurs. The squad definitely upped their effort and that’s a clear sign that Ole still has the dressing room behind him. Even if it seems Ronaldo is single handily keeping him in a job with all his wonderful goals! Although United dealt with Spurs, Man City is a completely different level and it’s hard to see how they stop City from scoring here. They changed their tactics last weekend, but now Varane is injured and that’s going to be a huge issue for United.
Ronaldo saved United again midweek with an incredible stoppage time goal for a 2-2 draw with Atalanta – apart from his wonder goals, they actually haven’t created a lot lately. However, United fans will take some hope from the fact that City performed poorly against Crystal Palace last weekend. They lost 2-0, and only created an xG of 0.79 which was very unlike them – they did bounce back to form in the Champions League though with an xG of 4.22. Obviously both sides do have their issues, but City are on a different level to United this season. They have creating a huge volume of chances, and it’s just hard to see how this United defence and midfield cope with City. Liverpool completely exposed United, and I can see the same thing happening here. I don’t feel City will score five, but it will be an easy win. United have to rely on Ronaldo doing wonders again, but City are a Max Bet for me at 1.77. There’s only one winner here.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Manchester City to beat Manchester United at 1.77 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQMunmci
MATCH STATS
● Manchester United are unbeaten in their last four league games against Man City (W3 D1), their longest such run against them since a run of six between 2008 and 2011.
● Manchester City have won seven Premier League away games against Manchester United, the joint-most of any team at Old Trafford in Premier League history (also Liverpool with seven wins).
● Man Utd have won three of their last four league games against Man City, as many as in their previous 16 against them. They’ve also kept three consecutive clean sheets against the Citizens in the Premier League, as many shutouts as they’d recorded in their previous 18 against them.
● Manchester United have lost seven home matches in all competitions in 2021, their most since 2001 when they also lost seven. They haven’t lost more than seven at home in a single year since 1989 (eight).
● Manchester United have conceded at least once in each of their last 13 home games in all competitions. Only twice have they had a longer run without a home clean sheet in their history – 21 games between April 1958 and March 1959 and 14 between September 1954 and February 1955.
● Manchester City have failed to score in three of their 10 Premier League games this season, already as many as they had in the whole of 2020-21. However, the Citizens have never failed to score in the 12.30 Saturday kick-off slot since it became a regular fixture in the Premier League in 2016-17 (23 games).
● Manchester United are the only side yet to score a Premier League goal from a set-piece situation this season, while Man City are one of two sides yet to concede from a set-piece this term (also Wolves, excluding penalties).
● Man Utd boss Ole Gunnar Solskjær has won four of his eight meetings with Man City boss Pep Guardiola in all competitions, the best win rate of any manager to face the Spaniard at least five times (50%).
● Man Utd’s Cristiano Ronaldo has scored three goals in his last five Premier League Manchester derbies, with his last goal in his first stint at the Red Devils coming against Man City in May 2009.
● There have been eight red cards in 48 Premier League Manchester derby matches, with Man Utd’s Cristiano Ronaldo the only player to have been sent off more than once in the fixture (January 2006 and November 2008).
● Manchester City’s Raheem Sterling has faced Manchester United more than he has any other opponent in his club career in all competitions (23). However, Sterling is yet to score against the Red Devils, despite playing 1662 minutes and having 38 shots (15 on target) in these games.
● Phil Foden has been directly involved in 14 goals in his last 16 away Premier League matches for Manchester City (11 goals, 3 assists), scoring in consecutive away games four times in that run but never three in a row. The only Man City player aged 21 or younger to score in three away consecutive Premier League appearances was Gabriel Jesus between March and May 2018 (four in a row).
BRENTFORD V NORWICH
3pm We kick off the 3pm games with an interesting market. Brentford host Norwich in a game that they should win with home advantage, however they performed very poorly last weekend against Burnley. Brentford have played some excellent football this season, and they were incredibly unlucky to lose against Chelsea and Leicester here recently – they also held Liverpool to a 3-3 draw and had an xG of 3.13. Last weekend was very poor however, they conceded an xG of 2.95 away from home. As I noted towards the start of the season, perhaps Brentford are going to be more settled at home compared to away from home in their first season in the Premier League. Brentford look good value to at 1.65 to beat this Norwich side who have been very poor recently.
Although Norwich have been nailed to the bottom of the table for the whole season, their performances have got worse as the season has gone on. They had a tough fixture list to start with, but they were playing some OK football against the bigger sides. For example, they created an xG of 1.81 against Liverpool and created a higher xG than Leicester when they lost 2-1. Since then, their lack of chances and goals has been a massive issues. Their highest xG since the Leicester game is 1.17 at home to Brighton, and they’ve had an xG of below 1 in their other six games since. Perhaps morale is very low after the slow start, but their football level has definitely dropped now. Brentford have been creating so many chances, they will simply out score Norwich.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Brentford to beat Norwich at 1.65 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBrenor
MATCH STATS
● This will be the first ever top-flight meeting between Brentford and Norwich. The Bees are winless in their last five league meetings with the Canaries, drawing 1-1 twice and losing 1-0 three times in this run.
● Norwich haven’t lost an away league game against Brentford since August 2009 (1-2 in League One), winning two and drawing three of their five visits since then.
● Sides starting the day bottom of the Premier League table have lost 19 of their last 20 league games away to London sides (D1), with Sunderland the last such team to win a visit to the capital (4-0 vs Crystal Palace in February 2017).
● Brentford have lost three of their last four home league matches (D1), as many as in their previous 33 combined (W19 D11). The Bees haven’t lost three in a row at home since December 2018 at Griffin Park in the Championship.
● Norwich are only the second team to fail to score in their first five away top-flight matches of a season while shipping 15+ goals themselves – the other was Derby County in 2007-08 (0 scored, 17 conceded), who went on to finish with a record Premier League-low 11 points.
● Brentford have lost their last three league matches, their joint-worst losing run under Thomas Frank. They haven’t lost four in a row since December 2016 in the Championship under Dean Smith.
● Excluding games played on the opening weekend of the season, this is Norwich’s 40th consecutive Premier League match in the relegation zone, equalling Swindon’s record in the competition set in the 1993-94 season.
● Norwich are winless in their last 25 away Premier League games in London (D6 L19) since a 2-1 win at Spurs in April 2012, with only Derby (26 between 1999 and 2008) and Fulham (36 between 2003 and 2011) having longer winless runs in top-flight history. The Canaries have also lost their last 11 in the capital, the longest top-flight run since Sunderland lost 14 in a row between 2002 and 2008.
● Norwich City have taken just two points from their last 20 Premier League matches (D2 L18) and haven’t scored more than once in any of their last 28 top-flight games. Only Wolves between January 1984 and October 2003 have had a longer run of games without scoring more than once in top-flight history (30 in a row).
● Only Chelsea (15) and Man City (11) have had more different goalscorers in the Premier League than Brentford this season, with nine of the Bees’ 12 goals coming from different players (excluding own goals).
CHELSEA V BURNLEY
3pm After just getting their first win of the season last weekend, Chelsea away is the last fixture Burnley want to see! Chelsea have been on an incredible run of late since losing to Manchester City. They’re going to start the weekend top of the table after Manchester City and Liverpool dropped point last weekend, and they have been putting the average sides to the sword week after week. That’s not good news for Burnley, however the reason why Chelsea are 1.28 instead of say 1.2 is that Burnley have been creating more chances than ever this season. Their results haven’t reflected that, but they have been creating more. Usually their tactics were to grind out games, but their xG figures have been decent. For example, they created an xG of 2.95 against Brentford last weekend and they have generally been creating an xG of over 1 against better teams. Make no mistake, they are in a relegation fight until the end of the season, but at least there is some hope for them.
It’s hard to see past a Chelsea win here, even with Burnley playing good football. They have been very impressive against your standard Premier League sides this season, and they have scored ten goals in their last two Premier League games. I feel this is a question of how many goals rather than win Chelsea win. Burnley were able to keep Manchester City down to two goals recently, and they can keep the score line respectable here. This is a game for small stakes for me with better opportunities in other games, but under 2.5 goals is worth a small bet at 2.26 here. I think Burnley will put XI men behind the ball, and Chelsea will have to work hard for the win.
The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQChebur
MATCH STATS
● Chelsea have won their last four Premier League games against Burnley, scoring 12 and conceding twice in this run.
● Burnley have won just one of their 14 Premier League games against Chelsea (D3 L10). However, five of the six points they’ve won in the competition against the Blues have come at Stamford Bridge (W1 D2 L4).
● After winning just three of their first 30 Premier League games in London (D4 L23), Burnley have won five of their last eight top-flight games in the capital (L3).
● None of the 14 Premier League meetings between Chelsea and Burnley have ended nil-nil – indeed, all 14 matches have seen at least one goal scored in the first half, the most meetings between two teams in Premier League history to have seen at least one goal scored in the first 45 minutes in every match.
● Chelsea have scored 16 goals in their opening five home Premier League games this season (W4 L1), their joint-most at this stage of a Premier League season, also netting 16 in 2010-11. They’ve only scored more at this stage in two previous top-flight seasons: 17 in 1959-60 and 22 in 1958-59.
● This will be Chelsea’s second consecutive Saturday 3pm kick-off in the Premier League, having faced Newcastle last week. The last time they played on consecutive Saturdays with a 3pm kick-off in the league was in August 2016, with the second game in that run a 3-0 home win over Burnley.
● Burnley picked up their first Premier League victory of the season last time out against Brentford – the Clarets are looking to win consecutive league games for the first time since January, when they beat Liverpool and Aston Villa.
● This will be Thomas Tuchel’s 30th Premier League game in charge of Chelsea – the Blues have kept 18 clean sheets since his first game in charge in January, four more than any other side, while only José Mourinho ever kept more than 18 in his first 30 games in charge in the competition (22).
● In just five Premier League starts this season, Reece James has been directly involved in six goals for Chelsea (four goals, two assists), the joint-most of any Blues player alongside Mateo Kovacic. The 21-year-old has scored in every game so far this campaign in which he’s played more than 45 minutes.
● Burnley’s Maxwel Cornet has scored four goals in his first five Premier League appearances, netting their third goal in a 3-1 win over Brentford in their last game. It is the joint-most goals scored in a player’s first five Premier League appearances when each appearance has come for a side starting the day in the relegation zone, equaling Demba Ba’s four in five for West Ham in February and March 2011.
CRYSTAL PALACE V WOLVES
3pm We finish the 3pm games with another very interesting market as Crystal Palace host Wolves. I feel the market is totally wrong here, and I can’t believe Wolves are the outsiders here. They are trading 3.15 at the time of writing, and that looks absolutely massive to me. I believe the market is so far out of line here that Wolves have to be a Max Bet at the odds. It’s my first time having two max Bets on the same day in the Premier League, but I just can’t have Crystal Palace as favourites here. After a very unlucky start to the season, Wolves’ results are finally starting to reflect their performances. They will start the weekend just outside the Top Six, and if they continue playing the same kind of football they have realistic chances of a Europa League spot. Compare that to Palace who sit in mid-table, and were closer to a relegation fight before beating Manchester City last weekend.
Those three points away to Manchester City could look absolutely vital come the end of the season, and to be fair to Palace they kept City down to an xG of 0.79 which was very good. They obviously benefited hugely from City having a man sent off, but they took full advantage. They had put together four draws prior to that, but I still can’t see past the Wolves win here, and the odds are incredible. Wolves lowest xG this season was 0.94, but generally they create over or close to 1.5. They created 2.24 against Everton last weekend, and they have only lost one away game in the Premier League this season. They were unlucky in that game too, losing 1-0 to Leicester but creating an xG of 1.66 to 0.55. Palace are a pretty average side, and Wolves should be favourites here.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Wolves to beat Crystal Palace at 3.15 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQCrywol
MATCH STATS
● Crystal Palace won this exact fixture 1-0 in January last season but haven’t won back-to-back home league games against Wolves since November 1969.
● Since their return to the Premier League in 2018, Wolves have won four of their seven meetings with Crystal Palace in all competitions (D1 L2), keeping a clean sheet in each victory.
● Crystal Palace are looking to register consecutive Premier League wins for the first time since January/February, with one of those victories coming at Selhurst Park against Wolves.
● After having a 10-game unbeaten run in London following their return to the Premier League in 2018 (W5 D5), during which they scored in every game, Wolves have lost four of their last seven league visits to the capital (W2 D1), failing to score on five occasions in that run.
● Crystal Palace have lost just two of their first 10 Premier League matches this season (W2 D6), their fewest at this stage of a league season since 1996-97 in the second tier (one) and fewest in the top-flight since 1990-91 when they’d lost none and went on to finish third.
● Crystal Palace have scored the highest proportion of their Premier League goals in the second half of games this season (85% – 11/13). Both of their goals in the opening 45 minutes have been netted by Wilfried Zaha (vs Brighton and Manchester City).
● Wolves have earned 10 points from their last four away league games (W3 D1), just one fewer than they managed in their previous 15 on the road (W2 D5 L8).
● Crystal Palace manager Patrick Vieira is unbeaten in his first five home league matches as Eagles boss (W1 D4), the first manager to remain so in the top-flight with the club. The last Palace manager to lose none of his first six league games on home soil was Ian Holloway in 2012-13 in the Championship (lost none of first 12).
● Conor Gallagher has the most direct goal involvements (5 – 3 goals, 2 assists), shots (21) and chances created (13) of any Crystal Palace player in the Premier League this season.
● Raúl Jiménez’s four goals and assists have been worth seven points to Wolves in the Premier League this season – only Michail Antonio (9) and Son Heung-min (8) have been more valuable to their sides through goals and assists.
BRIGHTON V NEWCASTLE
5.30pm We finish the day with Brighton hosting Newcastle. After all the fanfare of new ownership and endless money to spend, Newcastle have yet to win a game. Perhaps reality has hit now, that new owners don’t change a limited squad. We haven’t seen a bounce in performances since Steve Bruce “parted ways” with the club, and they appear to be finding it very difficult to find a new manager. None of the top managers in Europe are interested, despite the obvious high pay. Newcastle desperately need the transfer window to arrive, but again they will be relying on players coming to Newcastle purely for money, and the question is; will they tough it out in the trenches of a relegation battle? I have to say, it’s a very interesting situation at Newcastle at the moment! They picked up a draw in their last away game to Crystal Palace, but they conceded an xG of 2.38 and were lucky with a 1-1 result.
Brighton have finally started to win games, and managed to come from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 with Liverpool last weekend. It was a pretty level game on xG, but Brighton do come into this fixture on a small run without a win. They failed to beat Norwich and Crystal Palace, but they have had to play Manchester City and Arsenal in that run too. They were actually unlucky not to beat Arsenal, having to settled for a 0-0 draw but creating an xG of 1.38 to 0.43. Newcastle’s performances have been very poor this season, and Brighton should win this one. They look a little short to me however at 1.66 – the draw makes more appeal at 4.1 from a betting point of view. Both sides are without a recent win, and I can see this being a real grind of a game with little chances. Newcastle would probably take a draw without playing given they only have four points and are in a relegation fight at the moment. This might not be the best game to watch, but the draw is worth a small bet.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 4.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBrinew
MATCH STATS
● Brighton have never lost in eight previous Premier League meetings with Newcastle (W4 D4), with the Seagulls conceding just one goal in those eight games.
● Newcastle have faced Brighton without ever winning more often than they have any other side in the Premier League (D4 L4).
● Brighton won both Premier League meetings against Newcastle 3-0 last season – the previous six games between the sides in the competition had produced just four goals combined (Brighton 3, Newcastle 1).
● Newcastle have only scored with one of their 96 shots in the Premier League against Brighton and Hove Albion (1.0%) – since 2017-18, that conversion rate is the lowest of any of the 344 instances a team has had at least 50 attempts against another opponent in that time.
● Brighton have won 16 points in their opening 10 league games this season (W4 D4 L2), their most ever after 10 top-flight matches in a season. Two defeats is their joint-fewest at this stage of a top-flight season, equaling their record in 1981-82 (W3 D5 L2).
● Newcastle United have failed to win any of their opening 10 league matches this season (D4 L6) – the Magpies have never had a longer winless start to a league season. They last went more than 10 league games without a win between December 2007 and March 2008 (13 games).
● Brighton have won just four of their 26 Premier League matches against teams starting the day in the relegation zone (D12 L10), scoring just once in their last seven matches against the bottom three. Their win ratio of 15.4% in these matches is the second-lowest of any team to play in more than one Premier League season, ahead only of Bradford City (12.5%).
● Newcastle have the highest expected goals (xG) against figure of any team in the Premier League this season (20.2), while only Norwich have conceded more goals (25) than the Magpies (23). They are also one of only two teams still looking to keep a clean sheet in the competition this season, along with Watford.
● Newcastle striker Callum Wilson is averaging a goal or assist every 50 minutes at the Amex Stadium in the Premier League (2 goals, 2 assists), scoring in both starts there when he played for Bournemouth. Among the 152 players to have played at least 200 minutes at the Amex, Wilson has the best minutes per goal or assist ratio at the stadium.
● No player has created more chances from set plays in the Premier League this season than Newcastle’s Matt Ritchie (13).
