SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s Premier League action with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet. Starting with the headline match of the weekend …. Man City v Liverpool at 12.30pm.
MANCHESTER CITY V LIVERPOOL
12.30pm The Premier League returns after the International break, and talk about being back with a bang on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! Manchester City host Liverpool in undoubtedly the highlight clash of the weekend – it’s a fantastic way to end the International break and start such a huge month coming up in the Premier League. Liverpool will have a big say in the title race over the next week as they play Arsenal next weekend. Sandwiched in between those games is a midweek clash against Chelsea too – quite the difficult fixture list for Klopp’s men! The International break probably came at a bad time for City as they were on a decent winning run, and had won 7-0 and 6-0 in their last two games. A big win over Burnley was probably expected, but they absolutely hammered RB Leipzig 7-0 in the Champions League. They had been creating good xG figures because despite only scoring once against Crystal Palace prior to those games they recorded an xG of 2.47. It will be interesting to see how attacking they are here, and how Guardiola opts to line-up against Liverpool. They went into the International break off the back of two losses, the 1-0 loss to Bournemouth was a bitter pill to swallow after beating Manchester United 7-0, and while the loss against Real Madrid was disappointing, they were effectively out of the Champions League after the first leg embarrassment.
It wasn’t so long ago that this was a top of the table clash, a title decider if you like, now it’s all about City closing the gap on Arsenal. Liverpool might not even get a place in the Top Four this season – however their performances against the top sides have been better than the mid-to-low tabled sides. They have conceded far too many goals against sides they should be beating, but you’d have to expect them to “turn up” for this battle. City have undoubtedly been the better side this season – especially at the back. Liverpool’s average xG conceded is a very high 1.6 while for City it’s only 1.0. City also creating marginally more chances – their average xG figure is 2.4 while Liverpool’s is 2.2. While you’d have to lean towards City, it’s hard to make the case that they should be shorter than 1.63 and I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market here. This game screams goals given how open Liverpool have been at the back this season, and Over 2.5 goals looks the value play at 1.68. Both sides have a huge amount of attacking talent, and you wouldn’t be surprised to see a five or six goal thriller to be honest.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciLfc
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Manchester City have lost just one of their last 13 Premier League home games against Liverpool (W7 D5), going down 4-1 in November 2015 under Manuel Pellegrini.
● Liverpool are looking to complete the league double over Manchester City for what would be just a second time in the last 17 seasons, previously doing so in Jürgen Klopp’s debut campaign in 2015-16.
● Liverpool have won more Premier League games against reigning champions than any other side (23). They’re looking to achieve their first such double since 2013-14, beating Manchester United 1-0 at home and 3-0 away under Brendan Rodgers.
● Manchester City have won their last three Premier League games, but have yet to win four in a row in 2022- 23. They last did so in April/May last season (a run of five).
● Liverpool have taken just 12 points from their 13 Premier League away games this season (W3 D3 L7), compared to 30 at home. They have the biggest difference between points won at home and on the road in the Premier League this season (18).
● Manchester City have played more through balls than any other side in the Premier League this season (64). Among players, Kevin De Bruyne has played more than any other player (21), while Erling Haaland has received more through balls than anyone else (18).
● Liverpool have failed to score in seven different Premier League games this season, with six of these coming away from home. They last failed to score in more different matches on the road in 2011-12 (8). In all competitions, the Reds could lose three consecutive matches without scoring for the first time since October 2009.
● Mohamed Salah has scored in all three of Liverpool’s games against Man City this season, in the Premier League, Community Shield and EFL Cup. The last Liverpool player to score in four different games against an opponent in a single campaign was Ian Rush, netting in five meetings with Everton in 1986-87 (including the English Super Cup).
● Erling Haaland has scored 42% of Man City’s Premier League goals this season (28/67), while his goals have also been worth 20 points to the Citizens. All three (28 goals, 42% and 20 points) are the highest by a Manchester City player in a single Premier League campaign.
● Erling Haaland has scored 42 goals in all competitions for Manchester City this season, including six hat- tricks (all at the Etihad). Only two players have scored more in a single campaign for a Premier League club (since 1992-93) – Ruud van Nistelrooy in 2002-03 and Mohamed Salah in 2017-18 (both 44).
ARSENAL V LEEDS
3pm We have a busy afternoon as the Premier League returns to action with five games kicking off at 3pm. We start with the shortest price of the weekend as Arsenal host Leeds. It’s a big day for Arsenal fans who will be glued to the Man City v Liverpool game earlier in the day. That’s a tricky fixture for City, and Arsenal could easily have the chance to go ten or eleven points clear – City still have a game in hand, but if they dropped points earlier in the day I couldn’t see them coming back from that at this stage of the season. Arsenal just have to keep winning games and ticking off each passing week – from that point of view it’s been so far so good for Arsenal. They had a wobble when City went level on points, but they bounced back well and then City dropped more points. You couldn’t say they didn’t deserve the title if they won it – they have had some incredible performances and scored late goals too – something that Champions do really. We say that for a reason. Leeds went into the International break off the back of a massive win over Wolves in the relegation battle. That was a huge boost for them and pushed them up into 14th. They are still only two points off the bottom three however, so they can’t relax any time soon. The market doesn’t fancy them getting a result here either so they will likely be under immense pressure again.
Arsenal come into this game trading as short as 1.32 – as I said above the shortest price of the weekend. It’s very hard to see past a home win, but Arsenal home games haven’t been without drama this season. The Bournemouth win is obviously fresh in the mind, they were trading even shorter to win that game but you weren’t in a good position when Bournemouth went 2-0 up! Leeds are conceding an average xG of 1.7 in the Premier League this season and given how good Arsenal have been going forward it’s hard to see anything bar an Arsenal win in the end. It’s only a question of how many goals. I can see Leeds playing an open game, so I like Over 2.5 goals at 1.57 and Both Teams To Score at 1.99. Arsenal went into the International break a little sloppy at the back, conceded against Bournemouth, Sporting Lisbon in both legs and Crystal Palace. Arsenal will win, but Leeds can find the net at some stage and the 1.99 is worth taking on BTTS.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.99 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArlLee
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 13 meetings with Leeds in all competitions (W11 D2), since a 3-2 home loss in May 2003 that ended the Gunners’ title bid that season.
● Since a 0-0 draw in their first Premier League away game against Arsenal in February 1993, Leeds haven’t drawn or kept a clean sheet in any of their subsequent 13 league visits to the Gunners (W3 L10), shipping 31 goals in total.
● Leeds have won just two of their 23 Premier League games against the league leaders (D9 L12), though both victories came away from home (v Middlesbrough in August 2000 and Man City in April 2021). They’ve lost all four such games against Arsenal by an aggregate score of 14-2.
● Arsenal have won their last six Premier League games, their joint-longest such run under Mikel Arteta. They last won seven in a row between August and October 2018 under Unai Emery.
● Leeds won their second away league game of the season at Wolves last time out, netting more goals in that 4-2 victory than they had in their previous six on the road combined (3).
● Arsenal have scored 66 Premier League goals this season and have an expected goals tally of 54.9 – their difference of netting 11 more goals than their xG suggests is the highest in the division this term.
● Both Arsenal and Leeds have had a joint-high 14 different goalscorers in the Premier League this season (excluding own goals, Chelsea also 14). In Leeds’ case, only in 1992-93 (15) have they had more different players find the net in a single campaign.
● Arsenal’s top scorer in the Premier League this season is Gabriel Martinelli with 13 goals; the last player to score more while aged 21 or under in a single campaign in the division was Dele Alli in 2016-17 (18), while the last non-English player to do so was Saido Berahino in 2014-15 (14).
● Only Erling Haaland (33) and Harry Kane (23) have been involved in more Premier League goals than Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka this season (22), with Saka the only player so far to reach double figures for both goals (12) and assists (10).
● Jack Harrison has scored in his last two Premier League games for Leeds, as many as he had in his previous 29 appearances. Harrison has made more assists (6) and created more chances (41) than any other Leeds player in the Premier League this term.
BOURNEMOUTH V FULHAM
3pm At the start of the season this would have been billed as a massive relegation battle! Both teams came up from the Championship, and we all know how hard it is to stay in the Premier League these days. That hasn’t been the case for Fulham however, they sit happily just inside the top half of the table. As I have been saying in recent weeks, they have been lucky to pick up as many points as they have done, but you have to give them credit for grinding out results and they have been good going forward. They have been conceding a lot of chances however – their average xG conceded is 1.9 which is usually what we see from sides in the relegation battle. Their actual goals conceded only works out at an average of 1.4, so there is a big difference there and as I have been saying, you’d expect them to drop down the table as the season goes on. They have done the hard work though, and they are safe this season. The big question going forward is can they build on this season, and not get dragged into a relegation battle next season.
The Fulham performances, rather than just the bare results, are the reason we see Bournemouth trading as favourites here. Bournemouth have been bang average this season, at times they haven’t looked up to Premier League standard, but they have managed to grind out enough results to give themselves a chance at staying up. The win over Liverpool was absolutely massive, and although they are still sitting in the bottom three they are only three points behind Crystal Palace sitting up in 12th! There’s a lot of drama to come in the relegation battle this season! We have two sides here who concede a lot of chances, and I feel we’ll see goals here. I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market again as it looks priced very fairly – it’s hard to argue Fulham are good value given they have been over-performing. Over 2.5 goals is trading 2.16 and that looks cracking value in what should be an open game. An early goal could easily see fireworks, but either way we should have a very entertaining game.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.16 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouFul
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Each of the last three league meetings between Bournemouth and Fulham have been drawn, with the away side opening the scoring each time.
● Fulham won their only previous top-flight away game against Bournemouth, picking up a 1-0 win in April 2019 courtesy of Aleksandar Mitrovic’s penalty.
● Since the start of last season, away sides have won seven of the 11 Premier League meetings between two promoted sides (D2 L2). The only home wins in that run were Brentford against Watford (December 2021) and Fulham against Nottingham Forest in February this season.
● Since the resumption of the Premier League following the World Cup, no side has lost more games (8), won fewer points (8) or scored fewer goals (7) than Bournemouth. However, they beat Liverpool 1-0 in their last home league game, last winning consecutive top-flight home matches in February 2020.
● Fulham have lost their last two Premier League games, but are yet to lose three in a row this term. Nine of the Cottagers 10 league defeats this term have come against teams starting the day in the top half of the table, with the exception being a 3-1 loss at 15th placed West Ham in October.
● Fulham have conceded six goals across their last two Premier League games, more than they had in their previous 10 combined (5).
● Bournemouth have had the fewest shots (227) and second fewest shots on target (86) of any Premier League side this season, while at the other end they’ve faced more shots (457) and shots on target (147) than anyone else.
● No side have conceded more headed goals in the Premier League this season than Bournemouth (11), while a league high share 32% of Fulham’s goals this season have been headers (12/38). However, Fulham will be without Aleksandar Mitrovic for this game, who has scored 33% of their headed goals (4/12).
● Bournemouth midfielder Philip Billing is one of just two Premier League players to have applied 150+ pressures in each of the defensive third (178), middle third (315) and attacking third (157) of the pitch this season, along with Jordan Ayew.
● Fulham’s Manor Soloman is averaging a goal every 70 minutes in the Premier League this season (4 goals in 278 minutes), the best rate of any player to score more than three times. Three of his four goals have come from the bench, with only Son Heung-min (4) netting more sub goals this term.
BRIGHTON V BRENTFORD
3pm We have the clash of the xG boys here! Two owners who love the stats and data around football, and you have to say that they have had great success too. Brighton have definitely backed the process – even when they were involved in the relegation battle, their performances were always good and the owners never lost faith. Brentford have had great success since coming up to the Premier League too, and these two sides look bankers to finish mid-table for the next few seasons; even pushing up to challenge for the European spots. Brighton will have hopes of landing a European spot this season – they currently sit in seventh and with Manchester United winning the League Cup there will be extra spots available for Europe – it’s likely City or United will win the FA Cup too. Despite Liverpool having a “terrible” season by their own standards, it’s great that Brighton sit on the same amount of points as Liverpool with a game in hand from their point of view. Brentford have played two more games compared to Brighton, but they are sitting on the same amount of points too.
This should be a good game. You’ll probably see the best football played from the 3pm games! I can’t see either side sitting back, and we should get an entertaining game. Brighton come into the game as the odds on favourites, currently trading 1.69 at the time of writing. Brentford have put in most of their better performances at home, and while I feel the 1.69 is a little short I won’t be taking on Brighton here. Both sides actually went into the International break off the back of average performances in the Premier League. Brighton beat Crystal Palace 1-0 but conceded an xG of over double what they created and Brentford drew 1-1 with Leicester but conceded an xG of over double what they created as well. Brighton hammered Grimsby Town in the FA Cup, but obviously there was a big gulf in class between the sides there. With both sides not creating too much before the International break, maybe we can see a lack of goals here. I’m going to keep stakes small because we do have two attacking sides, but Under 2.5 goals looks appealing at 2.12 and is worth a small investment.
The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.12 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriBre
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Brighton have alternated between victory (3) and defeat (2) in their last five home league games against Brentford, winning this exact fixture 2-0 last season.
● Following their 2-0 win at the Brentford Community stadium in October, Brentford are looking to complete their first league double over Brighton since the 2014-15 campaign when the sides were in the Championship.
● Brighton have won four of their last five Premier League home games (L1), keeping a clean sheet in each victory. Only twice have they won three in a row at the Amex Stadium in the Premier League (March 2018 and November 2019), and never without conceding.
● Five of Brighton’s seven Premier League defeats this season have come against London clubs, including three of their four home losses.
● Brentford have lost just one of their last 15 Premier League games (W7 D7), a 1-0 loss at Everton last month. Away from home, the Bees have won three of their last six league games (D2 L1), having been winless in their first seven on the road this term (D4 L3).
● Including penalties, Brentford have scored a league-high 19 goals from set pieces in the Premier League this season, while Brighton have shipped a league-high proportion of their goals from set piece situations (45% – 14/31). Indeed, no side has scored more penalties than Brentford this term (6), while only Bournemouth (6) have conceded more from the spot than Brighton (5).
● Brighton pair Kaoru Mitoma and Pascal Groß have each scored six Premier League goals from 23 shots this season – their conversion rate of 26.1% is bettered only by Man City’s Erling Haaland among players with at least 20 shots (31.1%).
● Solly March is Brighton’s joint-top Premier League goalscorer this season with seven goals. He’s the top scoring player in the competition this season who didn’t score before the World Cup break, with all seven of his strikes coming in his 11 appearances since Boxing Day.
● Brighton’s Solly March has created six chances following a take on in the Premier League this season, more than any other player. March has also been involved in six goals following a ball carry (4 goals, 2 assists), with no player being involved in more.
● Brentford’s Ivan Toney has been involved in 10 goals in his 12 away games in the Premier League this season (8 goals, 2 assists), with only Erling Haaland and Harry Kane (10 each) scoring more on the road than Toney.
CRYSTAL PALACE V LEICESTER
3pm Plenty of talking points to discuss as Crystal Palace host Leicester – not least the return of Roy Hodgson! At 75 years old, I wasn’t expecting to see him back at Crystal Palace but he does know the club very well, and the reality is Crystal Palace just need to see this season out now and re-build in the summer. A re-build will be badly needed, because they have been one of the worst Premier League sides for a while now. They have been grinding out enough results to avoid a relegation battle, but their performances point to them going in the wrong direction and if things don’t change then they will be in the relegation battle next season. Indeed, despite starting the weekend sitting in 12th place they are only three points away from the bottom three. Leeds, Nottingham Forest, Leicester, West Ham and Bournemouth all have games in hand too. Palace aren’t quite out of trouble, and they desperately need a boost. We could easily see a new manager bounce situation, and that’s basically what Crystal Palace need at this point – there doesn’t seem to be enough quality in the squad.
You could more or less say the same thing about Leicester, except they haven’t changed manager. They start the weekend sitting just outside the bottom three, just one point ahead of West Ham and Bournemouth. They have been very poor this season, and Brendan Rodgers has looked a man running out of options at times. The players have argued on the pitch, and I’ve questioned whether he’s lost the dressing room or not. He’s still here though, and he gave an interview during the week saying they are just targeting 40 points. That was a bit odd considering they were challenging for a Champions League spot not long ago. I feel we’ll have a very low quality game here between two struggling sides. It’s been a while since either won too, and the draw makes appeal at 3.35. Palace deserve to be favourites with home advantage, but it’s hard to be confident in either side here to be honest.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.35 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CryLei
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● After winning four consecutive Premier League games against Leicester between 2017 and 2019, Crystal Palace are now winless in their last seven against the Foxes (D3 L4).
● Leicester have won just one of their last six away league games against Crystal Palace (D3 L2), with their last two visits to Selhurst Park ending level.
● Crystal Palace remain without a win in their 12 league games in 2023, drawing five and losing seven. Only three clubs have had a longer run without a Premier League win from the start of a calendar year – Derby County in 2008 (18), Sunderland in 2003 (17) and Middlesbrough in 2017 (14).
● Crystal Palace are winless in their last 13 games in all competitions (D5 L8), since beating Bournemouth 2- 0 on New Year’s Eve. It’s their longest run without a win since a run of 16 between December 1980 and April 1981 – the 14th game in that run was a 1-1 draw with Leicester, and the Eagles were relegated from the top-flight at the end of the campaign.
● Having kept a clean sheet in five of their six Premier League games before the World Cup break, Leicester are the only side without a clean sheet since the resumption of the competition, conceding 22 goals in their 12 games.
● No side has scored fewer Premier League goals this season than Crystal Palace (22). Indeed, Leicester have netted more first half goals (24) than the Eagles have in total, with the Foxes netting the highest share of their Premier League goals before half time this season (63%).
● No team has failed to score in more games overall (13) or home games (6) in the Premier League this season than Crystal Palace. The Eagles have the third lowest shots-per-game average this term (9.9), while only Bournemouth (24.1) have a lower overall xG than Palace (25.2).
● Roy Hodgson – the Premier League’s oldest ever manager – returns to Crystal Palace having taken charge of 148 Premier League games for the Eagles between 2017 and 2021. After winning seven consecutive games against Leicester in all competitions between 1998 and 2019, Hodgson has since lost four of his last five against the Foxes (D1).
● Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha has scored more Premier League goals against Leicester than he has any other opponent, with his seven goals against the Foxes coming in his last 10 appearances against them.
● No Leicester player has scored more Premier League goals this season than Harvey Barnes, with his nine goals his joint-best return in a single top-flight campaign. Only once has he reached double figures in a single league campaign, doing so in 2018-19 (9 with West Brom in the Championship, 1 Premier League goal for Leicester).
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V WOLVES
3pm We finish the 3pm games with Nottingham Forest hosting Wolves in a huge relegation battle. Both sides will be reasonably happy with their performances since returning to action after the World Cup, however they are still both very much in the relegation battle. Wolves recorded a huge win over Spurs recently, but within their last six games they have lost to Bournemouth and Leeds too; two sides also in the relegation battle. That has set them back, and they start the weekend just three points away from the bottom three. Nottingham Forest are sitting just behind Wolves but they won’t be unhappy to be one point behind with a game in hand. Forest looked odds on to go down this season, but they have managed to pick up plenty of points since the World Cup and they would have probably taken this position if offered it at the start of the season! It’s fair to say the loser, if there is one here, is going to be under immense pressure with the winner adding that little bit of cushion. It’s been a while since Nottingham Forest won, but they did pick up a point against Manchester City which is always a bonus and drew 2-2 with Everton too. Nottingham Forest have been very poor away from home this season, and that’s where most of their issues have come.
Forest have only managed six points away from home all season which is the joint-worst return this season. At home they have been much more comfortable, and I was slightly surprised to see Wolves trading as favourites. We have a very open market to be fair, with Wolves trading 2.7 and Nottingham Forest 3.05. You could say that Wolves have had a difficult away fixture list because they’ve had to play Newcastle and Liverpool, but their last six xG figures away from home have been 0.87, 0.71, 0.73, 1.24, 0.60 and 1.04. They clearly aren’t creating a lot on the road, but I fully respect the fact they have had to play better sides than Forest. I feel home advantage is a big factor here in what should be a close game, and I’m happy to lay Wolves at 2.7 from a value point of view. I would just have them a little bigger and Forest a little shorter given they have been pretty solid at home this season.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Wolves to beat Nottingham Forest at 2.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NotWlv
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Nottingham Forest have won just one of their last eight league games against Wolves (D2 L5), a 2-0 away win in the Championship in January 2018.
● Wolves have won their last two away league games against Nottingham Forest – they’ve never won three in a row before. Indeed, they’ve won three of their last four at the City Ground (D1), more than they had in their previous 15 visits (W2 D5 L8).
● This is the first time Nottingham Forest are hosting Wolves in a top-flight match since November 1983, with the Tricky Trees winning 5-0 under Brian Clough.
● Having been unbeaten in their first five Premier League games of 2023 (W3 D2), Nottingham Forest are now winless in their last six (D2 L4). Having conceded just two goals in those first five games, Forest have conceded at least twice in five of their last six.
● After a nine-game unbeaten home run in the Premier League, Nottingham Forest lost 2-1 against Newcastle in their last match at the City Ground. Three of their four home league defeats this term have come despite scoring the first goal of the game (2-3 v Bournemouth, 2-3 v Fulham, 1-2 v Newcastle).
● Wolves have lost three of their last four Premier League games (W1), as many as they had in their first nine under Julen Lopetegui (W4 D2). They’ve also won just two of their last 18 away games in the Premier League (D5 L11), though both of these victories have come under the Spaniard.
● No Premier League side has scored fewer goals than either Nottingham Forest or Wolves so far this season (22 each). Forest have had fewer shots on target than anyone else in the division this term (83 – 3.1 per game), while Wolves have the lowest shot conversion rate of any side (6.9% – 22 goals from 319 attempts).
● Wolves have had a league-high six red cards in the Premier League this season. It’s their most in a single campaign in the competition, while no side has had more in a season since 2014-15, when Aston Villa and Newcastle both had seven.
● 48% of Nottingham Forest forward Brennan Johnson’s off the ball runs in the Premier League this season have seen a teammate trying to find him (228/473), the highest percentage of targeted runs by a player to make 200+ runs in the competition this term.
● Wolves’ Raúl Jiménez has had more shots on target without scoring this season than any other player in the Premier League (9). Overall, the Mexican hasn’t scored in any of his last 21 Premier League appearances since netting against Watford in March 2022.
CHELSEA V ASTON VILLA
5.30pm We finish an intriguing day in the Premier League with Chelsea hosting Aston Villa. It was a very rocky start, to say the least, for Graham Potter at Chelsea but the tide has seemingly turned. They are unbeaten in four games and through to the Quarter-Finals of the Champions League. The UK media were reporting that Potter was going to be sacked if the results against Leeds or Dortmund didn’t go his way; which is definitely bad news whether it’s true or not. If your job is dependent on certain results you are always under pressure, and we know how trigger happy Chelsea are with managers! The 2-2 draw against Everton would have been disappointing, but this is a good chance to get back to winning ways. Villa have been pretty average this season, but they have been playing better football since Unai Emery took over. The International break came at a bad time for Aston Villa because they had won three of their last four games, and they picked up a 1-1 draw away to West Ham too. They created a lot too, their xG figures were 2.19, 1.18, 1.98 and 3.2. It will be interesting to see how Emery sets his side up here away from home, he has been more attacking than I have expected since he took over.
Chelsea have been creating good xG figures recently too, and you could say the International break came at a bad time for them too. They finally started taking their chances under Potter, and that confidence bought wins. Their last four xG figures in all competitions were 1.63, 2.47, 1.54 and 2.18. In fairness to Potter, Chelsea were creating decent figures but just not taking their chances – you could see them improving, it was just a matter of time before they started winning. I feel Chelsea will be a popular bet here at 1.7, but I’m happy to avoid them. I feel Villa have been playing decent football lately, and Chelsea still concede sloppy goals. We could see a very open game with plenty of chances – both sides are clearly creating good figures at the moment and we have two managers happy to play an open game too. I was very surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading as big as 2.02 when I clicked into the market – I really felt we’d see Overs trading odds on and I feel we’re getting a lot of value here. I’m happy with a Max Bet at 2.02 as we should get plenty of goals.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.02 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheAst
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Chelsea have won nine of their last 11 Premier League games against Aston Villa (D1 L1), with the only defeat in that run coming at Villa Park on the final day of the 2020-21 campaign.
● Aston Villa have won just one of their last 17 Premier League away games against Chelsea (D4 L12), losing six of the last seven since a 3-1 victory in December 2011.
● Chelsea have won two of their last three Premier League games (D1), as many wins as in their previous 15 combined (D6 L7). Indeed, the Blues have scored as many goals in their last three leagues matches (6) as they had in their previous 12.
● Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last four Premier League games (W3 D1), keeping a clean sheet in each of those three wins. They last went five without defeat in the competition in December 2020, with the last game in that sequence coming at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea (1-1).
● Only Manchester City (584) and Arsenal (423) have had more open play sequences with 10+ passes than Chelsea (422) this season in the Premier League, while the Blues allow their opponents on average a league-low 9.4 passes per defensive action, highlighting their intense press out of possession.
● Since Unai Emery’s first away Premier League game in charge of Aston Villa (a 2-1 win at Brighton in November), only Man City (16) and Arsenal (15) have picked up more points on the road than the Villans (13 – W4 D1 L1).
● Chelsea’s Premier League games have seen the fewest goals this season (57 – 29 GF, 28 GA), with Stamford Bridge also seeing the fewest of any venue (26 goals in total).
● Mason Mount scored both of Chelsea’s goals in their 2-0 win at Villa Park in the reverse fixture. He could become the fifth Chelsea player to score home and away against Aston Villa in a single Premier League campaign and just the second Englishman to do so after Frank Lampard in 2012-13.
● Following his goal at West Ham, Ollie Watkins became the first Aston Villa player to score in four successive away Premier League appearances since Dwight Yorke in March-May 1998. A goal in this game would see him become the first Villa player to net in five successive Premier League appearances on the road.
● Ollie Watkins has either scored (8) or assisted (3) in 11 of his last 15 Premier League games for Aston Villa, although he’s only made more appearances against Leeds (6) than he has against Chelsea (5) without scoring in the competition.