SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s action with recommended BETDAQ bets starting off with Luton v Spurs at 12.30pm.
LUTON TOWN V TOTTENHAM
12.30pm The top class football just keeps coming on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week, and we’re straight into another weekend of Premier League action after a dramatic week in the Champions League! I know it’s been a hectic schedule for the last three weeks, but we best enjoy this weekend because we head into another International Break after Sunday. I have to say this International Break has come around too quickly and it almost stops the season flow, but it is what it is. We kick off the weekend in the Premier League with Luton Town hosting Spurs. Will we see a more dramatic moment than the Spurs v Liverpool game last weekend? All the VAR drama; I don’t think it will be topped. When the Premier League released the audio is was barely believable what had happened. Spurs won’t be complaining, obviously, and they record a massive win that left them sitting in second place just one point behind Manchester City after they lost to Wolves in a massive shock. Ange Postecoglou certainly has the good vibes going at Spurs!
Not only have Spurs been getting results, they are actually playing superb football too. Their average xG created stands at a very impressive 2.24, which is the best figure in the Premier League at the moment. They are conceding a little more chances than the sides around them in the Top Four, but you can’t help but be impressed with them going forward. They come into this game as the odds on favourites at 1.47, and they’ll be fully expected to beat this Luton side. Spurs are actually the shortest price of the weekend, which doesn’t happen often! After getting their first win away to Everton last weekend, Luton had a big setback midweek when they lost 2-1 to Burnley with home advantage – that was going to be a massive fixture for them and they are conceding a lot of chances this season. Their average xG conceded is a high 1.7, and with Spurs in such good form going forward I can’t see past an away win here. The 1.47 is a confident bet to start the day.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Tottenham to beat Luton Town at 1.47 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LutTot
BURNLEY V CHELSEA
3pm We have four fixtures kicking off at 3pm this week, not as busy as last Saturday but a busy afternoon nonetheless! We start with Burnley hosting Chelsea, and it will be interesting to see who can follow up their wins here after Chelsea beat Fulham on Monday night and Burnley beat Luton on Tuesday night. It’s fair to say both sides desperately needed those wins! Despite the win over Luton, Burnley will start the weekend still sitting in the relegation zone and while this might not be the fixture to get them out, they’ll want to start going up the table as soon as possible. That win over Luton might just kick start their season; they needed a boost from somewhere and they did have a difficult fixture list to start the season. The goals finally came for Chelsea on Monday Night Football, but Fulham actually did OK. It was a very even game on chances created; Chelsea just finally started taking their chances. Ironically, and again highlighting what a “funny old game” football is, Chelsea have actually played much better at times already this season but haven’t had success. I would expect them to still have issues taking their chances this season – a striker in January will surely be a top priority for Pochettino.
Chelsea come into the game as the odds on favourites, and I’m sure we’re going to have some big opinions either side of the book on this one. Chelsea are trading 1.75 at the time of writing with Burnley 5.2 and the draw is 4.1. I’m sure Chelsea will have a lot of fans at 1.75, but I have to say I’m not at the stage yet where I can trust backing them at odds on, especially away from home. They haven’t been too bad this season, but they are hardly banging down the door to win games looking at their xG figures. It’s hard to have faith in them to be honest; very similar to Manchester United! I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here, and Under 2.5 goals looks a very nice option at 2.1. I was surprised to see it trading odds against; Burnley have only managed an average xG created of 1.04 this season which is in the bottom five in the Premier League this season, add to that Chelsea’s issues scoring goals and we should have a low scoring game here.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BurChl
EVERTON V BOURNEMOUTH
3pm Is it too early to call this a massive relegation battle? Everton host Bournemouth and you have to say the results this past week have definitely put the pressure on these two! Wolves winning against Manchester City was a huge bonus for them, and a massive unexpected three points. You would say that Sheffield United and Luton Town are almost nailed on to go down, and then one of Everton, Bournemouth and Burnley will likely join them. Everton losing to Luton, and then Burnley beating Luton were two terrible results for the Toffees but they do start the weekend sitting outside the bottom three. Bournemouth have only managed three points from their seven games, and they are still waiting for their first win of the Premier League season too. Whatever happens, I would expect these two to be involved in the relegation battle for most of the season, and I would also expect one of them to go down too. The stats are quite interesting when you look at both sides.
On first look, Everton aren’t playing too badly looking at their xG figures. They’re creating an average xG of 1.63 which is just behind Liverpool for example. The thing is though, they have had a pretty easy fixture list. They’ve only had to play Arsenal from the top sides. Compare this to Bournemouth who have already played Liverpool, Spurs, Chelsea, Brighton and Arsenal. That’s four of the top six at the moment. They are conceding an average xG of 1.76 which is very poor and they are creating less than Everton, but you would expect them to struggle with that fixture list. Obviously a major worry here is that Bournemouth are away from home; but I still feel that the 2.02 is very short on Everton here. They lost here last weekend to Luton, and I expect Bournemouth to make the game closer than odds of 2.02 suggest – I’m happy with the home lay from a value point of view.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Everton to beat Bournemouth at 2.02 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EvrBou
FULHAM V SHEFFIELD UNITED
3pm We have another game here that will have an impact on the relegation battle as Fulham host Sheffield United. Fulham were actually my dark horses to be involved in the relegation battle this season, but you have to give them credit they do grind out an incredible amount of games. Their xG figures are very poor again this season, as they were last season, but they just grind out results. They are creating an average xG of 0.88 which is the third worst figure in the Premier League and they are also conceding close to double that. Still, they don’t appear to be getting involved in the relegation battle and they remain outsiders to go down. Unfortunately for Sheffield United, the same can’t be said about them. They start the weekend nailed to the bottom of the table with just one point from their first seven games. It’s going to be a long season for them in my opinion, and it’s hard to see them staying up. They could even finish below Luton in my opinion.
Sheffield United are conceding an average xG of 2.22 which is the highest figure in the Premier League. They also have the worst attacking stat too – their average xG creating is only 0.84. Major issues at both ends of the pitch then; where do you even start fixing that? At the moment, you’d have to say that they just don’t look up to Premier League standard. They have had to play Manchester City, Spurs and Newcastle but they have also had opportunities to play the likes of Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest and Everton. I wouldn’t be a huge fan of Fulham, but it’s hard to make any case of Sheffield United. I’m not going to take the 1.69 on Fulham because of their low xG created figure, but I couldn’t put anyone off them. With both sides so poor at the back, Both Teams To Score is worth a small bet at 2.0 but I’m definitely keeping stakes small for this one.
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 2.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FulShu
MANCHESTER UNITED V BRENTFORD
3pm We finish the 3pm games with Manchester United hosting Brentford. Where do you even begin with United this season. Personally I thought they had found some life with their win over Crystal Palace in the Carabao Cup; it was their best performance of the season and some new players came in too. They followed that up with a loss at home to Crystal Palace in the Premier League, and then to add to the misery they lost here to Galatasaray midweek in the Champions League. One of the most disappointing things about the whole event however was seeing the videos of how many Galatasaray fans where in the home section at the end of the game; it really just highlights how poorly the club is being run – those tickets are being sold for profit at a cost of home support and a better atmosphere for United fans. We can debate the manager’s position all day, but the owners are the problem in my opinion. It’s just so clear to see. Another point is the stadium is basically falling apart; the roof was leaking at the weekend and it’s no wonder the FA didn’t include Old Trafford in their bid for Euro 2028. United come into this game trading as the odds on favourites, but it would take a brave punter to back them at 1.73 given their current run!
Brentford will likely appeal more than United to many! The away win is trading 5.0 and the draw is 4.3. This should be an interesting game, as is every United game at the moment to be honest, but Brentford have only managed one win this season. They have been playing decent football without getting the result. Both sides actually have very similar xG figures going forward. United are creating an average xG of 1.48 with Brentford just behind them at 1.45. Brentford have been better at the back though; their average xG conceded is only 1.36 while United’s is 1.48. It’s just hard to have any faith in United at the moment – these players have thrown so many managers under the bus over the last few seasons and you can see the same sulking and lack of effort creeping in here. I expect Brentford to make this one closer than odds of 1.73 suggest on United, and I’m very happy with the home lay.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat Brentford at 1.73 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MunBrt
CRYSTAL PALACE V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
5.30pm We finish Saturday with Crystal Palace hosting Nottingham Forest! Not exactly the most glamorous game for a TV slot this weekend, but we do have Arsenal v Manchester City in the prime TV slot on Sunday to look forward to! This is an interesting betting heat with Crystal Palace coming into the game as the favourites with home advantage. They are priced at 2.28 with Nottingham Forest 3.7 and the draw is 3.4. Both sides will be happy with their starts to the season – Crystal Palace start the weekend in ninth which is a huge improvement from their start last season, and Nottingham Forest will be happy with eight points from their seven games. It seems pretty certain that they don’t have to worry about the relegation battle this season which is nice – they were in trouble at times last season! They really struggled away from home last season, but they produced a 1-0 win away to Chelsea already this season and surely they got a huge boost in confidence from that. They came close to getting a result at Old Trafford too; indeed they should have after being 2-0 up! Then again, who doesn’t beat United these days!?
Looking at the stats, neither side are playing fantastic football. They basically have to grind out enough results to finish mid-table – let’s be honest, neither side are going to achieve anything else this season. I would be worried about Nottingham Forest going forward – their average xG created is only 0.87 at the moment which is the second worst figure in the Premier League. They are conceding chances as well, but not as high as some other sides in fairness. Crystal Palace have been pretty rock solid – they create 0.03 more than they concede! They will grind out plenty of results this season with that level of performance, and Roy Hodgson does an amazing job with them. I have to say I wouldn’t be a huge fan of Crystal Palace, but they do appeal here at 2.28. I felt they would be a lot closer to 2.0 looking at how Forest have been playing this season, and I’m happy to have a small bet on the home win here to finish the day.
The Striker Says:
One point win Crystal Palace to beat Nottingham Forest at 2.28 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CryNtt