SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s four matches starting with CHELSEA v BRENTFORD at 12.30pm. All with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
CHELSEA V BRENTFORD
12.30pm We’re set for another excellent Saturday in the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! With so many European commitments from Premier League sides these days, we only have four fixtures to enjoy on Saturday but we do have some very interesting markets. We kick things off with Chelsea hosting Brentford and this is a game most football fans will be expecting Chelsea to win. They have had a terrible start to the season, but they managed to put three wins together prior to the International Break in the League Cup and Premier League, then returned with a decent 2-2 draw against Arsenal. Perhaps things are starting to turn around for Mauricio Pochettino – they still sit in mid-table though, and to be honest their hopes of Top Four already look gone. Nevertheless, they come into this game as the odds on favourites. They are trading 1.67 at the time of writing with Brentford 5.9 and the draw is 4.2. We have two very similar attacking sides here; Chelsea’s average xG created is 1.51 while Brentford’s is only 0.02 higher at 1.53.
Where the key difference might be is at the back. Chelsea have been very solid this season; their average xG conceded is just 1.16 which is a Top Four figure at the moment. Only Manchester City and Arsenal have an average xG conceded is under 1.0. Brentford have been leaking more chances; their average xG conceded is 1.41. That’s partly why they have only managed two wins this season and they haven’t had an exceptionally tough fixture list either. They have to play Liverpool, Arsenal and Brighton all within the next six weeks. They were supposed to play Manchester City too but that fixture had to be moved. While Chelsea should win here, they have had issues scoring goals and I feel it’s hard to make the case that they should be massively shorter than 1.67. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market and I like Under 2.5 goals at 2.1 – I would have this a little closer to 2.0 because Chelsea have been so solid at the back, plus they have struggled to convert their chances.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheBrt
ARSENAL V SHEFFIELD UNITED
3pm We had a very hectic 3pm schedule last weekend, this Saturday we only have two fixtures and we start with Arsenal hosting Sheffield United. We have one of the shortest prices around Europe here – Arsenal are trading as short as 1.13 at the time of writing. It’s been a while since I saw Arsenal trading that short in the Premier League; we’ve had Manchester City and Liverpool at those prices but not for Arsenal. It’s hard to blame the market here; Sheffield United just haven’t looked up to Premier League standard so far. They have the lowest average xG created at only 0.85, and they are also conceding the most chances at an average xG of 2.12. They are the only side conceding an xG of over 2.0 per game, and one of three sides with an average xG created under 1.0. The stats make for very poor reading for Sheffield United, and while they might grind out a few results at some stage it’s hard to see them having the quality to stay up. I mean they have so many problems at both ends of the pitch.
I think this is a case of how many goals can Arsenal score rather than will they win. The market is expecting goals too; Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.41 but it’s also expecting all those goals to come from Arsenal. Both Teams Not To Score is trading 1.65, which is effectively an Arsenal clean sheet in this situation. Arsenal have been very hard to fault this season; only themselves and Manchester City are conceding an average xG of under 1.0, and they are creating a host of chances too. This is going to be one way traffic, and it’s just about how many Arsenal score. All eyes will be on the goal and Handicap markets, and I like Arsenal to cover the -2 Asian Handicap which is trading 1.63. This is a nice position with money back if Arsenal win by exactly two goals. Sheffield United have been conceding a host of chances, to be honest it’s hard not to see Arsenal scoring four or more here. I couldn’t put anyone off Any Other Home Win at 2.76 or bigger in the Correct Score market.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Arsenal -2 goals Asian Handicap to beat Sheffield United at 1.63 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsShu
BOURNEMOUTH V BURNLEY
3pm We have the most open market of the day next because we don’t have an odds on favourite. Bournemouth host Burnley in a game that will have a big impact on the relegation battle, even this early in the season. I say we have the most open market, but you wouldn’t actually call it an open market because Bournemouth are trading quite strong favourites at 2.22 with Burnley 3.5 and the draw is 3.75. After seeing the early part of the season, you can see why Sheffield United and Luton Town are long odds on to go down. I would suggest Sheffield United are nailed on to go back down to be honest. With Everton collecting points recently and actually playing good football, I would suggest these two sides will probably start to feel the heat very soon. They definitely need a good run to Christmas, otherwise they are going to be in a massive relegation battle. It might be interesting to see how Burnley handle that because at the start of the season the general feeling was they wouldn’t even be in a relegation battle.
Along with Sheffield United, Bournemouth are still waiting for their first win of the season. They start the day second last with just three points from their nine games. Burnley only have one point more though, and this game could be viewed as the winner finally kickstarts their season while the loser is under immense pressure. The reality here is we have two very average sides; the stats make poor reading for both squads. Burnley are averaging an xG of under 1.0 which is very poor, but Bournemouth aren’t far behind them at 1.14. Bournemouth have been very poor at the back; their average xG conceded is 1.88 which is the third worst record at the back this season – again, Burnley aren’t far behind that at 1.7. When I look at this fixture all I see is a close game, and I have to say the 2.22 on Bournemouth looks exceptionally short. I just see a closer game than those odds suggest; not because I have a lot of confidence in Burnley, just because we have two poor sides here and there shouldn’t be a clear favourite in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Bournemouth to beat Burnley at 2.22 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouBrn
WOLVES V NEWCASTLE
5.30pm We finish Saturday in the Premier League with Wolves hosting Newcastle. This should be an interesting game, and I’m sure there will be some big opinions either side of the book on the Newcastle price. They come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.89, with Wolves 4.4 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. Newcastle had been on a superb run heading into their Champions League game midweek but they lost 1-0 to Dortmund with home advantage. That was definitely a massive setback after their opening two results, especially the win against PSG. This is a game that they should win to be honest, Wolves have played pretty average football this season but of course we all remember their win over Manchester City here! After a terrible start to the season, and everyone talking about relegation, they have added a draw away to Aston Villa and a win away against Bournemouth since the City win. They’ve moved up the table, and any thoughts of relegation seem to be gone for the time being. They face a top class Newcastle side here though.
Football doesn’t always work out this way, but if you look at the stats there’s only one winner here. Newcastle are creating more-or-less what Wolves are conceding – Newcastle’s average xG is 1.69 and Wolves are conceding 1.72. And then Wolves are only creating what Newcastle are conceding. Wolves average xG created is only 1.12 and Newcastle are conceding an average of 1.15. That figure for chances created from Wolves is in the bottom five, and it’s hard to get away from Newcastle at 1.89. As I said above, I’m sure given the City result and some decent recent results that Wolves will have their supporters here but Newcastle are ten ticks too big in my opinion. There’s a huge gulf in performance level, and while I know Newcastle have to bounce back from a disappointing result midweek I feel we’re getting so much value at 1.89 here that they are worth a Max Bet.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Newcastle to beat Wolves at 1.89 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolNwc