THE STRIKER: previews Sunday’s four Premier League games with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet. The action starts at 12pm with BURNLEY v NEWCASTLE.

The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!

Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.

BURNLEY V NEWCASTLE

12pm We have a superb day ahead in the Premier League and we kick the day off with a massive game towards the bottom of the Premier League. While Fulham have suffered some recent losses and have played both games than these two, Newcastle are surely still feeling the pressure given how close Fulham are. Burnley are four points ahead of Newcastle and are reasonably safe, but they still have a chance of going down with a loss here. A win here would see them safe and they can finish the season without worry. Both sides have had a lot of recent draws, and I’m sure there will be a lot of interest in the draw here at 3.2 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. You’d have to expect a reasonably low quality affair here, as both sides have been pretty poor this season.

xG would put Burnley down to 17th, where Newcastle have been for a while now. There isn’t much to write home about form wise for either of these sides – even Burnley’s recent win against Everton was very lucky. They won 2-1 but conceded an xG of 1.8, they also drew 1-1 with Arsenal but gave away an xG of 2.86. While Newcastle drew 2-2 with Spurs last weekend, they did create an xG figures of 3.86 and they played pretty well. Although Newcastle are closer to going down, they are probably a better side than Burnley at the moment looking at the figures. I’m very tempted to lay Burnley and have the draw on my side, but I can’t ignore Newcastle at the odds here. They are 3.55 and that simply looks too big. I know this will be a low quality affair and you can’t trust either side, but the 3.55 is very much worth backing.

The Striker Says:
One point win Newcastle to beat Burnley at 3.55 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQbrnnew

MATCH STATS

  • Burnley won 1-0 in their last home league game against Newcastle, last winning back-to-back home top-flight games against the Magpies in August 1968.
  • Following their 3-1 win over Burnley earlier this season, Newcastle are looking for their second Premier League double over the Clarets, previously doing so in 2018-19.
  • Burnley are winless in their last six Premier League games at Turf Moor (D5 L1), drawing each of their last five – they haven’t drawn six consecutive home league games since April 1936 in the second tier.
  • Newcastle have failed to win each of their last seven games in the Premier League (D4 L3), although they’ve avoided defeat in four of the last five (D4 L1). Last time out versus Spurs, the Magpies attempted 22 shots, their joint-highest tally in a Premier League game this term (also v Leeds in January).
  • Newcastle have picked up 29 points from 30 Premier League games this season – on three of the last four occasions the Magpies won 29 points or fewer at this stage of a top-flight campaign they were eventually relegated (2015-16, 2008-09 and 1988-89).
  • No side has registered fewer open play sequences of 10 or more passes in the Premier League this season than Burnley (123), while only West Brom (248) have completed fewer passes-per-game in the top-flight this term than the Clarets (258).
  • Burnley have scored a higher share of their Premier League goals in the opening 15 minutes this season than any other side (33% – 8/24), while they have also conceded a league-high share in the same period (25% – 10/40).
  • Newcastle manager Steve Bruce has lost all three of his away Premier League matches against Burnley, losing in 2009-10 with Sunderland, 2014-15 with Hull and last season with Newcastle.
  • Burnley striker Chris Wood has scored in each of his last three Premier League appearances – the New Zealand international has only scored in four consecutive Premier League outings once before, doing so between July-September 2020.
  • Jonjo Shelvey (64) has had a direct hand in more shots in the Premier League this season than any other Newcastle player, with the midfielder attempting 35 shots and creating 29 chances for his teammates, although he’s only scored one goal and provided one assist.

WEST HAM V LEICESTER

2.05pm While we have a massive early game in the Premier League, the next two games are fascinating. West Ham started the weekend in the Top Four and they are just four points behind Leicester. A win here would be huge, as it would ease the pressure on The Hammers fighting for fourth and bring Leicester into the mix for falling out of the Top Four towards the end of the season, again! With Chelsea, Spurs and Liverpool all chasing as we go towards the end of the season there’s a lot at stake here. I have to say, it would be nice if these two could finish in the Top Four – they have been impressive this season – especially West Ham who have been fantastic to watch.

After having a Max Bet on West Ham on Monday night at 2.7, I thought they were going to throw away another 3-0 lead when it went 3-2, but thankfully they held on! Leicester lost 2-0 to Man City, but you can forgive them that with City in excellent form. This should be a very high fixture and for me it all comes down to the odds. I feel the market is all wrong here, and the 3.15 on West Ham is worth backing. I don’t want to knock Leicester, as they have been impressive this season and actually come here in good form too but the Hammers have been fantastic going forward this season and 3.15 very much underrates their chances in my opinion. We should have an open game as both sides like to attack, and West Ham are worth backing at 3.15 to outscore Leicester.

The Striker Says:
Two points win West Ham to beat Leicester at 3.15 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwhulei

MATCH STATS

  • Between 1994-95 and 2014-15, West Ham won seven of their eight home Premier League matches against Leicester (L1) – they are winless in five at home since then (D2 L3), losing 2-1 last season.
  • Leicester are one of six away teams who are yet to lose a Premier League match at the London Stadium, with the Foxes unbeaten in four (W2 D2). Only Man City and Liverpool have played more times at the stadium without losing (five games).
  • West Ham United are looking to record their first Premier League double over Leicester since the 1999-00 season under Harry Redknapp.
  • The away team has won four of the last eight Premier League meetings between West Ham and Leicester (D3 L1), though the away team hasn’t won both top-flight meetings between these sides in a season since the 1929-30 campaign.
  • Coming into this weekend’s games, West Ham have the second best home record in the Premier League (28 points), while Leicester have the second best away record so far this term (34 points). Both sides are second to Manchester City in each case.
  • West Ham have scored three goals in the first half in each of their last two Premier League games (3-3 v Arsenal, 3-2 v Wolves). In the competition’s history, only Manchester United in September 2011 have scored at least three goals before half-time in three consecutive matches before.
  • Leicester have kept just one clean sheet in their last seven Premier League games, doing so in a 5-0 win against bottom side Sheffield United. Meanwhile, West Ham have scored in 25 different Premier League matches this season, with only Manchester City finding the net in more.
  • Only Leeds (6) have scored more Premier League goals from fast breaks than West Ham so far this season (5). Four of the Hammers’ five such goals have come since Jesse Lingard joined the club in February.
  • Leicester’s Ayoze Pérez has been directly involved in six goals in his last seven Premier League starts against West Ham (3 goals, 3 assists).
  • Since his Premier League debut for West Ham in February, no player has been involved in more goals in the competition than Jesse Lingard (9 – 6 goals, 3 assists).

TOTTENHAM V MANCHESTER UNITED

4.30pm Another massive game! All eyes will be on Jose Mourinho again as he takes on his old club as he pushes for a Top Four finish with Spurs. He would have been gutted last week as he watched his club draw 2-2 with Newcastle – that was a golden opportunity thrown away after Chelsea lost against West Brom. Classic Spurs you might say! While you can make plenty of Spurs jokes, the reality is they conceded an xG of 3.86 against Newcastle and that is a very worrying figure to see. I felt Jose had solved the issues at the back in recent weeks, although not fully as they do throw in the odd poor performance still, but if they defend like that again here United could hammer them.

United put in a very impressive performance midweek in the Europa League with a 2-0 win away to Granada. That was a very deserved score line too, as they finished with an xG of 2.27 to 0.43. That eases the pressure for next week, although they aren’t under as much pressure as Spurs in the race for the Top Four either. They look certain of a Top Four finish given the gap. I feel this is a game for small stakes, as both sides have a lot of goals and mistakes in them – but at the same time the managers can make the big games very cagey affairs. I feel United are worth a small bet at 2.56 – they perform much better away from home in the big games and they have a lot more in their favour today heading into this fixture. I wouldn’t go mad about it, but United win for me.

The Striker Says:
One point win Manchester United to beat Tottenham at 2.56 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQttmmun

MATCH STATS

  • Having beaten Manchester United 6-1 earlier this season, Spurs are looking to record their first league double over the Red Devils since the 1989-90 season under Terry Venables.
  • Manchester United have won just one of their last eight away Premier League matches against Spurs (D4 L3), a 1-0 win at Wembley in January 2019.
  • The record for goals scored against Manchester United by an opponent in a Premier League season is seven, achieved by four clubs. The last team to score more than seven in a top-flight season were Spurs in 1962-63 (8), while the last team to hit double figures were Aston Villa and Newcastle during 1930-31 (11 each).
  • Spurs could become the first team to record a Premier League double over Man Utd since Man City in 2018-19, while they could be the first side to do so against Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s Man Utd side. The last team to do a league double over Solskjaer were Ranheim against Molde in the 2018 Norwegian Eliteserien.
  • Tottenham have failed to win a league-high six Premier League matches this season in which they were leading at half-time, with the Lilywhites going on to draw all six such games.
  • Manchester United are unbeaten in each of their last 22 Premier League away games (W14 D8) – only Arsenal between August 2001-September 2002 (23 games) and April 2003-September 2004 (27 games) have registered longer such away runs in English top-flight history.
  • Tottenham have won their last three Premier League home games, while scoring two or more goals in each victory – they last won four in a row in this manner back in May 2017 (a run of 7), which included a 2-1 win against Man Utd.
  • Spurs boss José Mourinho is looking to become the first former Manchester United manager since Dave Sexton in 1981-82 with Coventry City to complete a league double over the Red Devils after leaving the club.
  • Tottenham striker Harry Kane (19) is looking to score 20+ goals in a Premier League season for the fifth different campaign (also 2017-18, 2016-17, 2015-16, 2014-15), and would become just the fourth player in the competition’s history to achieve this feat after Alan Shearer (7 times), Sergio Agüero (6) and Thierry Henry (5).
  • Mason Greenwood is looking to score in consecutive Premier League appearances for the first time since July 2020, while only Wayne Rooney (15) and Marcus Rashford (13) have scored more Premier League goals as a teenager for Manchester United than Greenwood (12).

SHEFFIELD UNITED V ARSENAL

7pm We finish with Sheffield United hosting Arsenal and this fixture should come with a wealth warning! Sheffield United sit bottom of the table, but the question is can you trust Arsenal at 1.6? Anyone who trusted them on Thursday night at similar odds in the Europa League had to watch them concede a very late goal for a 1-1 draw against Slavia Prague. They pretty much dominated that game too, but they just “did an Arsenal” as you might say. I said last week before the Liverpool game that they have been playing their best football of the season but they aren’t getting results at the moment. In fairness, Liverpool absolutely bossed them to win 3-0 but that’s not Arsenal’s level anymore. They were putting in some good xG figures against average sides apart from the Liverpool game.

Arsenal are always a better side when they are allowed play with space and time, and Sheffield United are unlikely to put them under too much pressure – I don’t think they are good enough. Sheffield United have been very poor this season, and Arsenal usually dominate these type of games. I’m happy to keep stakes small again here given its Arsenal and it’s hard to trust them, but they are worth backing at 1.6. They have been creating some good chances against the lesser sides recently and they can continue to do that here.

The Striker Says:
One point win Arsenal to beat Sheffield United at 1.6 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange.

You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQshearl

MATCH STATS

  • Sheffield United are unbeaten in all four home Premier League matches against Arsenal (W2 D2), winning their last two 1-0 in 2006-07 and 2019-20.
  • Arsenal have played more Premier League matches at Bramall Lane without winning than at any other ground (4). Their last away top-flight win at Sheffield United was in April 1991, winning 2-0 with goals from Kevin Campbell and Alan Smith.
  • London teams have won each of their last three Premier League visits to face Sheffield United at Bramall Lane (West Ham, Tottenham, Chelsea), as many as sides from the capital had won in their first 24 visits to the ground in the competition (W3 D6 L15).
  • None of Sheffield United’s last 16 Premier League games have finished level (W4 L12), with only Manchester City (19) on a longer current run without a draw.
  • This will be Sheffield United’s 24th consecutive Premier League game starting the day bottom of the table – only six teams have ever had a longer such run in the competition, most recently Aston Villa in 2015-16 (28 games).
  • Arsenal have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last nine Premier League games. Only twice have they had a longer run without a shutout in the competition – 11 games between Dec 2017-Mar 2018 and 11 games between Dec 2001-Feb 2002.
  • Arsenal have conceded three goals in each of their last two Premier League games (3-3 v West Ham, 0-3 v Liverpool), having conceded just 3+ goals in two of their last 37 in the competition. The last time the Gunners conceded at least three times in three consecutive league games was in April 2019.
  • Sheffield United are the lowest scorers in the Premier League this season, netting just 17 goals in their 30 games. They’ve only scored more than once in a match on three occasions this term, with two of those coming against Manchester United (also 2-1 vs West Brom).
  • 15 of Sheffield United’s 24 Premier League defeats this season have been by a single goal – no side has lost more games by a one-goal margin in a single campaign in the competition’s history.
  • Eight of Alexandre Lacazette’s 11 Premier League goals for Arsenal this season have come away from home – just nine of his first 37 in the competition across three seasons had come on the road.

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