SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s two games with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NEWCASTLE V ARSENAL
4.30pm What a wonderful Super Sunday on BETDAQ Betting Exchange in the Premier League! We might have different start times this Sunday, but we still have two games to focus on. We start at the later time than usual as Newcastle host Arsenal at 4-30pm with West Ham hosting Manchester United later. Arsenal finally bounced back to winning ways during the week with an impressive 3-1 win over Chelsea, and it will be very interesting to see how they perform against a top class Newcastle side away from home here. Arsenal weren’t top of the league for long as Manchester City took back the lead the night after, but the best thing for Arsenal now is finishing the season strongly even though they look nailed on for second now. Sky Sports had the big debate again during the week as to whether second place is a successful season for Arsenal after being so far clear in the title race. It’s a good debate because there are two answers to be honest – getting back into the Champions League is a massive success after so long, not winning the title is bitterly disappointing given their position and the fact they traded odds on to win – both views are right in my opinion. They face another big test here, and it’s a reflection of how good Newcastle have been this season that they come into the game trading as the favourites.
We have a very open market, but Newcastle are favourites at 2.56, Arsenal are trading 2.8 and the draw is 3.9. Arteta has definitely given Arsenal a backbone this season, especially away from home. Arsenal have actually managed three more points away from home this season compared to Manchester City, but they have played one game more. That gap was much bigger before Arsenal drew at West Ham and lost away to Manchester City. It’s hard to fault either side here – I know Arsenal have had a lot of criticism because of the title race and having a big wobble under pressure, but their average xG created this season is 2.1 and they are conceding an average of 1.2. Very impressive stats. Newcastle have been fantastic too – their average xG created is 2.1 as well but they are conceding marginally less chances at 1.1. Both sides aren’t afraid to play an open and attacking game, and I feel we’ll see a very entertaining game here. Both Teams To Score is trading 1.6 and I feel this jumps off the page given all the chances they have created this season. Newcastle won’t sit back at home, and every game is a must win game for Arsenal at the moment. I’d be surprised if we didn’t see goals here.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewArs
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Newcastle won this exact fixture 2-0 last season – not since their first three home Premier League meetings with Arsenal between 1993-94 and 1995-96 have they won consecutively at St James’ Park against them.
● Arsenal have failed to score in their last two Premier League games against Newcastle, having scored at least once in each of their previous 18 against them (40 goals in total).
● The reverse fixture between Arsenal and Newcastle in January this season ended 0-0 – the Magpies haven’t avoided defeat in both Premier League meetings with Arsenal in a season since 2010-11 (1-0 away, 4-4 at home).
● Arsenal have kept 29 clean sheets against Newcastle in the Premier League – no side has kept more against a specific opponent in the competition’s history.
● Newcastle (D1) are one of three teams Arsenal have failed to beat in the Premier League this season, along with Southampton (D2) and Manchester City (L2). Victory for the Gunners would see them beat as many as 17 different opponents in a single campaign for the first time since 2011-12 (17).
● Newcastle have won eight of their last nine Premier League games (L1), including each of the last three by an aggregate score of 13-3. Their 18 wins overall this season is their most in a single top-flight campaign since 2011-12 (19).
● Arsenal are winless in their last three Premier League away games (D2 L1), as many times as they’d failed to win in their first 14 on the road this season (D1 L2). They’ve conceded eight goals across these three games, just one fewer than they had in those previous 14 (9).
● There have been at least four goals scored in each of Arsenal’s last seven Premier League games; only three teams have had longer such runs in the competition’s history – Liverpool (9 between Sep-Dec 2021), Manchester City (8 between May-Sep 2019) and Manchester United (8 between Mar-May 2000).
● Callum Wilson scored eight goals in seven Premier League appearances for Newcastle in April, including three braces. Overall, his 15 goals this season is the most in a single top-flight campaign for a Newcastle player since Demba Ba’s 16 in 2011-12, while the last player to reach double figures at St James’ Park (Wilson currently on nine) was Georginio Wijnaldum in 2015-16 (11).
● Leandro Trossard has assisted more Premier League away goals than any other Arsenal player this season (5), despite not making his first appearance on the road for the Gunners until February. Indeed, his five assists have come in just 309 minutes, averaging one every 62 minutes.
WEST HAM V MANCHESTER UNITED
7pm The Manchester United fixture list to end the season is relentless and they are back in action away to West Ham. The good news for United fans is that West Ham aren’t in the top half of the table because United have had a terrible record away from home against sides in the top half this season! They played reasonably well away to Brighton on Thursday night but were dealt a cruel blow losing in the 99th minute. Usually it’s United with the late goals, but they have had a few hammer blows late this season – Crystal Palace and Arsenal also come to mind. West Ham come into this game just on the edge of the relegation battle – they started the weekend four points away from the bottom three, a nice cushion but they are by no means safe – they are definitely the outsiders to go down, but that doesn’t mean it might not happen. They played very well against Arsenal here recently, and a repeat of that performance would likely get something. Most of West Ham’s major problems have come away from home this season – they have only managed 12 points from their 17 away games. They come into this game off the back of two away losses, but once of those was against Manchester City so that’s easy to forgive. United have a few injury worries, and at times recently they have looked very tired – it will be interesting to see how they perform here away from home against lesser opposition.
United come into the game as the favourites, but they aren’t trading odds on. The away win is 2.12 at the time of writing with West Ham trading 3.6 and the draw is 3.9. It’s hard to have a lot of faith in United away from home, but all their problems have come against sides sitting in the top half. That being said, I can’t make the case that they should be odds on here and the 2.12 doesn’t appeal as a value bet. They tried to keep things as tight as possible on Thursday night, and may opt for the same kind of tactics here which makes Under 2.5 goals appeal at 2.28. The problem with that however is that West Ham have been involved in a lot of high scoring games recently – the 4-3 against Crystal Palace being the highest! West Ham have been entertaining to watch this season, and they creating and conceding the same average xG figure at 1.5. I feel that they can score at some stage, and given all the goals they have conceded United will get chances too. Both Teams To Score is trading 1.68 and that looks a nice position. I wouldn’t be totally surprised to see a 1-1 with Under 2.5 goals winning as well, but BTTS looks the better option.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WhuMun
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Having won two of their three Premier League games against Man Utd under Manuel Pellegrini (L1), West Ham are winless in their last six against them, losing each of the last five in a row (D1).
● Man Utd have won their last two away league games against West Ham, as many as in their previous eight visits (D3 L3). They last won three in a row at the Hammers between February 2009 and April 2011.
● Manchester United have won seven of their last eight meetings with West Ham in all competitions (L1), with this the third consecutive campaign the two sides have met at least three times. The Red Devils have won both this season, and also won all three in 2020-21.
● West Ham have dropped 35 points from winning positions against Manchester United in the Premier League, more than they have against any other side. Their record when leading against the Red Devils in the competition is W7 D7 L7.
● Manchester United have won just one of their last seven Premier League away games against London sides (D3 L4), beating Fulham 2-1 earlier this season. It’s as many defeats as they’d suffered in their previous 23 visits to the capital (W12 D7 L4).
● West Ham are winless in three Premier League home games (D1 L2), conceding nine goals in these matches. The Hammers had been unbeaten in their previous five at the London Stadium (W3 D2), keeping three clean sheets and conceding just twice.
● West Ham have won two of their last three Premier League games on Sundays (D1), beating Southampton 1-0 and Bournemouth 4-0 last month. The Hammers had won just two of their previous 13 league games on Sunday before this (D3 L8).
● West Ham manager David Moyes is winless in his last 10 Premier League games against Manchester United (D2 L8), losing the last five in a row. His last win against them was with Everton in August 2012 (1- 0).
● Three of Marcus Rashford’s four Premier League goals against West Ham have been as a substitute, his most goals from the bench against an opponent in the competition.
● Lucas Paquetá has been involved in four goals in his last four home games for West Ham in all competitions (2 goals, 2 assists), double the amount he had in his first 16 at the London Stadium (2 assists).