SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s action with recommended BETDAQ bets – Brighton v Liverpool, West Ham v Newcastle, Wolves v Aston Villa then the highlight of the weekend Arsenal v Man City at 4.30pm.
BRIGHTON V LIVERPOOL
2pm What a Super Sunday in the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! All eyes will be on Arsenal v Manchester City in the prime Sunday TV slot, but we have three very interesting markets kicking off at 2pm before we get there. We have the three sides that were involved in the Europa League on Thursday night, and we start with Brighton hosting Liverpool. We had the biggest drama of the season in the Spurs v Liverpool game last weekend, and we’ll probably never see drama like that again this season! The VAR video that the Premier League released was jaw dropping stuff. Jurgen Klopp called for a replay afterwards and that was a little silly – the VAR clearly made a massive error, and we just can’t go down the route of replaying games. Ironically VAR was brought in to avoid these situations but you have to say football was definitely better before VAR from an in-stadium point of view. It’s better watching at home with VAR, but it has definitely lowered the stadium experience in my opinion. There has to be more communication with the fans what VAR is doing.
Anyway, hopefully no VAR drama here! This should be a very entertaining game between two sides who love to attack and play an open brand of football. Liverpool are the favourites at 2.2 with Brighton 3.2 and the draw is 4.2 at the time of writing. After an excellent start to the season, Brighton have hit a bump in the road over the last week. They lost their first Europa League game when they started the game trading in the 1.2 range, then Chelsea knocked them out of the Carabao Cup and they were embarrassed at the weekend losing 6-1 to Aston Villa. They create so many chances going forward I still feel that the 2.2 on Liverpool is a little short; however it seems it’s a good time to play Brighton. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here because this game screams goals. The market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 goals trading 1.4, but I really like Over 3.5 goals at 1.83. This game absolutely screams goals and action in my opinion; neither side know how to sit back!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 3.5 goals at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BhaLiv
WEST HAM V NEWCASTLE
2pm Newcastle stole all the headlines on Wednesday night in the Champions League with a 4-1 win over PSG! St James Park was absolutely rocking, probably the best atmosphere we’ve seen all season to be honest. I’m sure that was a superb experience, but Newcastle must follow up that performance with another impressive one here. They are trading 2.18 at the time of writing with West Ham 3.5 and the draw is 3.8. West Ham were in action on Thursday night in the Europa League, in a tricky away fixture to Freiburg from the Bundesliga. They have had a positive start points wise in the Premier League this season, but there are reasons to be worried. They are conceding an average xG of 2.02 this season which is the second worst figure in the Premier League this season. Prior to the weekend, the only side worse than West Ham at the back was Sheffield United. Eventually sides are going to start taking their chances against the Hammers, and with Newcastle in superb form and full of confidence this just might be the game. You can’t knock Newcastle’s figures this season; their average xG created is 1.76 and they have been rock solid at the back too with an average conceded of 1.16.
West Ham have won two of their three home games this season, but weren’t too strong at home last season. In fairness, in hindsight you could say that they were more focused on the Europa Conference League which they won and we saw incredible scenes so it was worth it, but they did hang around the relegation battle for too long! Newcastle were the third best side away from home last season, and I really like the 2.18 here. There’s so much in Newcastle’s favour heading into this game – they are playing superb football and the fact that West Ham are conceding an average xG of over 2.0 gives me great confidence too. I would have Newcastle closer to 2.0 here, and I feel we’re getting so much value at 2.18 that Newcastle are worth a Max Bet here at the odds. It’s been quite the run for Newcastle; an 8-0 win, a win over Manchester City in the Carabao Cup and then beating PSG midweek – hopefully they can keep the winning run going here.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Newcastle to beat West Ham at 2.18 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WhuNwc
WOLVES V ASTON VILLA
2pm We finish the 2pm games with Wolves hosting Aston Villa. Wolves produced the shock of season so far last weekend with a 2-1 win over Manchester City! After a really poor start to the season, that was just what they needed! The general feeling was that they were going to be involved in a relegation battle this season, and they probably still will be to be honest but beating City is a complete bonus three points. Although City completely outplayed them, you have to give Wolves massive credit for holding on for the final 20 minutes. Usually City find a goal from somewhere – City finished the game with an xG of 2.21 but Wolves grinded it out. The big challenge now is can they follow that up against an in-form Aston Villa side. Villa will be delighted with their start to the season with five wins from seven games; their losses coming against Newcastle and Liverpool. They have been playing some very good football since Unai Emery took over – he has completely transformed them from the way they were playing under Steven Gerrard.
We actually have very similar odds in all the 2pm games today. Aston Villa are the favourites here at 2.22 with Wolves 3.45 and the draw is 3.7. There’s only four ticks between all three favourites in the afternoon! While I feel the 2.2 is a little short on Liverpool and the 2.18 is massive on Newcastle, the 2.22 is appealing on Aston Villa in my opinion. Not quite at the levels of Newcastle, but worth backing. Wolves have been very poor this season; I know they got the win against City but if you played that game another nine times City would win all nine. It was just one of those days. Wolves’ average xG created this season is 1.04 which is the in bottom four and they are conceding an average of 1.85 which is the third highest xG conceded in the Premier League this season. The stats don’t paint a good picture for Wolves, and with Villa playing such good football they can get the three points here. I would have them ten ticks shorter.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Aston Villa to beat Wolves at 2.22 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolAvl
ARSENAL V MANCHESTER CITY
4.30pm The Premier League have saved the best until last this weekend as Arsenal host Manchester City in the prime Super Sunday TV slot! At the start of the season City were odds on favourites to win the title again and Arsenal were the closer challengers in the betting. Liverpool have joined Arsenal as the “main” challengers, but to be honest City have shortened since the season started even with their loss to Wolves last weekend. They have looked head-and-shoulders above everything else to be honest. Obviously the Wolves loss was a freak result, and you couldn’t knock the way City played – they finished the game with an xG of 2.21. As I said above in the Wolves game, if they played another nine times City would win all nine. It will be very interesting to see can Arsenal get a result here; when the sides met last season there was a huge gulf in class. Even Sky Sports were taken aback by the difference in class – it was built as the title decider because Arsenal had the lead at the time, but twice City brushed them aside to be honest plus they beat them in the FA Cup as well. Arsenal have added Declan Rice to the midfield, and City do have a lot of injury worries.
A fascinating game awaits, and we have a very open betting heat too. City will come into the game as the favourites; they are trading 2.54 at the time of writing with Arsenal 3.05 and the draw is 3.5. You get the feeling that if Arsenal are going to have any chance in the title race this season, they have to win here. City aren’t going to be as weak as they are here with injuries – that being said, it’s not like they don’t have any replacements! Their squad is stacked with talent and they replace the injuries with 50 million+ players! While I couldn’t put anyone off taking the 2.54 on City, I am going to stay out of the match odds market here. City don’t have their best XI at the moment, and these two sides are the only sides in the Premier League conceding an average xG of under 1.0. I feel we’ll have a tense and cagey affair without as many goals as usual. Under 2.5 goals is trading 2.16 and that looks cracking value; I know both sides have so much attacking talent so I’m keeping stakes reasonably low but I expect a very tight game.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.16 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArlMci
