PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews BRIGHTON v CHELSEA with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
BRIGHTON V CHELSEA
8pm We finish Tuesday night with Brighton hosting Chelsea in what should be a cracker. Brighton might not be a very popular side or get many results, but they do play lovely football. They have played good football for a number of years now, but this is the first year that they are sitting in mid table. They have been in relegation battles at times in the past when the xG table had them in the Top Four! It’s good to see them finally getting the results they deserve, but once again they were unlucky in their last fixture when drawing 1-1 with Crystal Palace on Friday night – they finished the game with an xG of 2.66. Brighton seem very comfortable at home, and it will be interesting to see what kind of performance we get from Chelsea here. They lost 1-0 to Manchester City at the weekend, and while it was nice to land a Max Bet on City, it was a very close game. City created more, but Chelsea didn’t do too badly. However, they only created an xG of 0.43 which shows City basically controlled the game – they just didn’t create a host of chances themselves. Chelsea have been struggling in general lately, with their only high point coming with their two wins over Spurs in the Carabao Cup Semi-Final. They will need a decent performance here to beat a good Brighton side, and the question is are they up to it.
I have to say, I was surprised to see Chelsea as short as 1.78 when I clicked into the market. These sides met very recently and Brighton were able to get a 1-1 draw in London. They actually finished the game with a marginally higher xG than Chelsea, and although they needed a stoppage time goal to get the draw, you couldn’t say they didn’t deserve it. In true Brighton style, they haven’t got the results they have deserved here recently. They have failed to beat Crystal Palace, Wolves, Leeds and Newcastle all while finishing with a higher xG. They created 1.84 v Wolves and 1.99 v Leeds but didn’t manage to take their chances and score. There is always the danger of Brighton creating a lot of chances and not taking them, but I can’t have Chelsea as short as 1.78 here – I fully expect a closer game than those odds suggest and from a value point of view I’m happy to lay Chelsea.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Chelsea to beat Brighton at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBriche
● Brighton have drawn their last two league games against Chelsea, picking up more points from these two games than they had in their first 11 league meetings with the Blues (D1 L10).
● Chelsea have never lost in 13 league meetings with Brighton (W10 D3) – it’s the most the Blues have faced an opponent without ever losing in their league history.
● Brighton have never led in nine Premier League meetings with Chelsea. In the competition’s history, only two sides have faced an opponent more without leading for a single minute – Sheffield United against Manchester City (10) and Portsmouth against Chelsea (14).
● Brighton have had more shots than Chelsea in each of the last three Premier League meetings between the sides. Since we have detailed shot data (2003-04), Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United are the only teams to have outshot Chelsea in 4+ consecutive meetings in the competition.
● Chelsea have scored in all nine of their away games against Brighton in all competitions. Only Wigan (11) have they faced more often on the road while scoring in every game.
● Brighton have won just two of their 14 Premier League games played on a Tuesday (D4 L8), with those victories coming against Crystal Palace in December 2018 (3-1) and Manchester City in May 2021 (3-2).
● Chelsea have lost their last two away league games played on Tuesdays, against Wolves and Leicester City last season. The Blues had only lost two of their last 21 such games before this (W11 D8).
● Only the current top three sides of Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea have lost fewer Premier League games than Brighton so far this term (4). However, the Seagulls have drawn more games than any other side this season, with their 10 draws the most recorded by a team 20 games into a Premier League campaign since Sunderland in 2014-15 (11).
● Chelsea are winless in their last three Premier League games (D2 L1), their longest such run under Thomas Tuchel. The Blues lost 1-0 at Man City last time out, but haven’t gone consecutive away league games without a goal since May/August 2019.
● Brighton have scored seven goals in the final 10 minutes of games in the Premier League this season – in no other campaign have they netted more in this timeframe. These goals have been worth seven points to the Seagulls, and on all seven occasions it’s been their only goal of the game.