CARABAO CUP: The Striker previews WEST HAM v ARSENAL and MAN U v NEWCASTLE on Wednesday both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
WEST HAM V ARSENAL
7.30pm We have the Fourth Round of the Carabao Cup on BETDAQ Betting Exchange on Wednesday, and we have two superb fixtures on Sky Sports. I’m sure Manchester United v Newcastle will take all the headlines, but we start the evening with another all Premier League clash as West Ham host Arsenal. West Ham will be hoping the change in competition brings a bit of life into them because they have had some disappointing results in the Premier League recently. A loss here against Everton would have been very disappointing; however as I highlighted in my preview you can see they aren’t playing fantastic football looking at their stats. That’s why we laid them at the weekend – their average xG conceded this season is a very high 1.84. Only Sheffield United have a worse figure than that and as I said at the weekend, eventually sides are going to start taking their chances against them. Giving away so many chances has to be a massive worry against a brilliant Arsenal side here, and it’s no surprise to see Arsenal trading as favourites.
My only surprise is that they weren’t trading a little shorter. Arsenal are 2.26 with West Ham 3.4 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing. Arsenal put Sheffield United to the sword at the weekend with a comfortable 5-0 win – their average xG created this season is a nice 1.71 and they remain only one of two sides with an average xG conceded of under 1.0 this season – the other side being Manchester City. They actually have the same average at 0.85. I know the major teams can decide to rest players for this competition and that has to be in your mind when considering whether to back Arsenal or not here. At 2.26 I feel we’re getting fantastic value though, and I’m just going to control the stakes a little compared to going bigger. With West Ham giving away so many chances and Arsenal playing confident and attacking football, I can only see one winner here. Arsenal are a confident bet.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Arsenal to beat West Ham at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/HamArs
MANCHESTER UNITED V NEWCASTLE
8.15pm We finish the evening with Manchester United hosting Newcastle, and what a fascinating fixture. If Newcastle are to go deep in this competition they have to do it the hard way – they’ve already beaten Manchester City, and now have to go to Old Trafford. The thing is now though, is going to Old Trafford that difficult? United were played off the park by Manchester City at the weekend, but they’ve even been struggling to beat average sides this season. Obviously we had that old tired debate about the owners again after the result at the weekend; it’s pretty obvious they are the problem now. How many managers do they have to go through before accepting reality? After a tough fixture list to start the season, Newcastle still sit in the top six but they dropped two points away to Wolves at the weekend. If they are going to keep their spot in the Top Four, which is unlikely looking at how good the current Top Four are playing, then they simply must win games like that. Man United will come into this game as the favourites, but to be honest they have been all over the place this season and Newcastle have been playing much better football. It hasn’t been a good few days for them though; a loss in the Champions League against Dortmund and then the Wolves game.
The match odds at the time of writing currently trade; Manchester United 2.3, Newcastle 3.4 and the draw is 3.55. The United lay just jumps off the page here. City created the higher xG figure in the Premier League this season against them at the weekend, and as I said above United have struggled to beat the likes of Sheffield United, Burnley and Nottingham Forest. Their stats are poor as well – they are conceding exactly what they are created as an average xG of 1.53. Newcastle are creating more, and they are conceding less – their average performance level on xG is +0.49. I fully expect a closer game than the odds suggest and I’m very happy with 2.3 lay from a value point of view. United are a side worth taking on at the moment in my opinion – I wouldn’t usually have a Max Bet on the Cup but I feel we’re getting so much value here it’s worth it. We landed a Max Bet against United at the weekend, and we can do the same here.
The Striker Says:
Five points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat Newcastle at 2.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ManNwc
