WEDNESDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Wednesday’s games between MANCHESTER UNITED v BRENTFORD and WEST HAM v NEWCASTLE with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MANCHESTER UNITED V BRENTFORD
8pm The midweek Premier League action continues on BETDAQ Betting Exchange on Wednesday night! Manchester United and Newcastle both did battle with each other on Sunday afternoon, and they are both back in action tonight against Brentford and West Ham. We start the evening with Manchester United hosting Brentford, and they’ll be hoping to bounce back after getting completely outplayed at the weekend. That result left United out of the Top Four, with Spurs drawing at Everton on Monday night. The good news for United is Newcastle, Spurs and United all have 50 points – but United have two games in hand on Spurs. So do Newcastle, so at the moment it looks like Spurs will miss out on Champions League football – we might even see Harry Kane at Old Trafford next season if that does happen. The UK media are reporting him as Erik ten Hag’s number one target. Brentford were also outplayed at the weekend away from home, but they managed to get a 3-3 draw at Brighton. They conceded a whopping xG of 4.47 which has to be a major worry – we actually very rarely see figures that high in the Premier League because it’s so competitive. United are going to be without their main man Casemiro again here though, which is obviously a massive worry – he really is the backbone to this United side.
United come into the game trading as the odds on favourites, as you would expect with home advantage. The home win is 1.7 at the time of writing, with Brentford 5.5 and the draw is 4.2. A lot has happened since Brentford hammered United 4-0 at the start of the season – remember all the fallout with experts questioning ten Hag and the protests against the owners. Times change quickly in football, and nothing beats winning to change the mood around a club. We usually get plenty of action when these sides meet, and they both have an attacking mindset too. I can’t see Brentford sitting back even away from home, it’s just not their style. The 1.7 on United doesn’t appeal to me without Casemiro – I am happy to sit out of the match odds market here. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.78 and that looks the standout bet here. Brentford games have been very entertaining this season, the average xG of games they have been involved in is 3.5, and United will play their part at home to make for an entertaining game. Overs is a confident bet.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MunBre
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● In a run stretching back to 1939, Manchester United have won their last three home league games against Brentford by an aggregate score of 10-1, winning 3-0 in this fixture last season.
● Having won 4-0 at home in August, Brentford are looking to complete their second ever league double over Manchester United, after the 1936-37 top-flight campaign.
● Brentford won 2-1 at Manchester City earlier this season – the last London side to win away against both Manchester clubs in the same league campaign was Arsenal in 1990-91.
● Having lost all five of their midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games last season, Brentford are unbeaten in their three such games this term, drawing with Crystal Palace and Chelsea before beating Southampton.
● Manchester United have lost just one of their last 22 Premier League home games (W14 D7). Indeed, the Red Devils are on the longest current home run without defeat in the competition (12 games) since losing 2-1 to Brighton on the opening weekend.
● Manchester United have failed to score in each of their last three Premier League games; never before have they gone four without a goal in the competition, last doing so in the league overall in April 1989.
● Brentford have lost just one of their last 16 Premier League games (W7 D8), going down 1-0 at Everton last month. Only Arsenal, Manchester City and Newcastle have lost fewer games than the Bees this season (5), though Thomas Frank’s side have drawn more Premier League games than anyone else this term (13).
● Marcus Rashford has scored 18 home goals in all competitions this season – it’s the most by a Man Utd player at Old Trafford in a single campaign since 2011-12 (Wayne Rooney, 19), while the last player to hit 20 was Rooney in 2009-10.
● Bruno Fernandes has assisted 49 goals in all competitions for Manchester United, more than twice as many as any teammate since his debut for the club in February 2020. The only Premier League player with more assists in this period is Kevin De Bruyne with 58.
● Ivan Toney has scored 17 Premier League goals this season; only one Brentford player has ever scored more in a top-flight campaign, with Dave McCulloch doing so three times (26 in 1935-36, 31 in 1936-37, 26 in 1937-38).
WEST HAM V NEWCASTLE
8pm We finish the evening with West Ham hosting Newcastle. Both sides come into this game on a high after wins at the weekend at opposite ends of the table. West Ham recorded a huge win here against Southampton, and that was badly needed in the relegation fight. West Ham have a squad so good that they shouldn’t be in a relegation fight, but here we are and they have to collect enough points to survive. A loss against Southampton at the weekend would have been a bitter blow in that regard, but the win is a step in the right direction. Newcastle must be buzzing after beating Manchester United at the weekend too – that moved them up into third, level on points with Spurs and Manchester United. Just like Manchester United, they have two games in hand on Spurs so it looks like it will be the London side missing out on a Top Four finish at the moment. Newcastle have to keep the pressure on however, and they have to win games like this. They come into this game as favourites, but they aren’t trading odds on. Newcastle are trading 2.2 at the time of writing, with West Ham 3.7 and the draw is 3.5. Although The Hammers have been involved in the relegation battle, their performances haven’t been too bad.
This should be a good challenge for Newcastle. West Ham have been creating marginally more chances than they are conceding this season, and they have been much better at home this season too. Most of their issues have come away from home – they’ve only managed six points away from home this season which is the joint-lowest return before the midweek fixtures kick off (the other team is Nottingham Forest). It’s hard to fault Newcastle this season though; they have Top Four xG figures. Their average created xG is a high 2.0 and their average conceded is only 1.1. They completely bossed United here at the weekend, creating an xG of 3.18 and only conceding 0.35. There’s definitely a little gulf in class between the sides given the way they have played this season, but I do respect the West Ham home form. I still feel Newcastle at 2.2 are worth a bet given their performance level, but I’m not getting carried away with the staking.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Newcastle to beat West Ham at 2.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WhuNew
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● West Ham are unbeaten in their last three Premier League games against Newcastle, though the last two have ended level (W1). They last had a longer such run against the Magpies between February 1998 and October 2000 (6).
● Newcastle have won 10 Premier League away games against West Ham, only winning more away games against Tottenham Hotspur in the competition (11).
● Newcastle haven’t lost any of their four away Premier League matches in London this season (W2 D2), beating Fulham and Spurs while drawing with Arsenal and Crystal Palace. The Magpies last went five unbeaten in the capital between May 2013 and January 2014.
● Newcastle have lost just one of their last 10 Premier League away games (W5 D4), going down 2-0 at Man City last month. Overall, no side has lost fewer games on the road this season than the Magpies (2).
● West Ham are unbeaten in their last five Premier League home games, winning three of them (D2), as many as they had in their previous 12 at the London Stadium beforehand (W3 D3 L6). The Hammers have also kept three clean sheets in this run, as many as they had in their previous 16 home league matches before this.
● Newcastle have won each of their last three Premier League games, scoring exactly twice each time. The Magpies last won four straight matches in the competition while scoring at least twice in each victory in April 2012 under Alan Pardew (run of 5).
● Six of West Ham’s seven Premier League wins this season have come at home (86%) – no side has a higher such ratio in 2022-23. In fact, 11 of the Hammers’ last 13 league wins have been at the London Stadium, including each of their last six, the first time they have had six top-flight wins in a row all coming at home since a run of nine in succession from November 2009 to November 2010.
● Newcastle striker Callum Wilson has scored 10 Premier League goals against West Ham, more than he has against any other side. His first ever top-flight goals came away against the Hammers, netting a hat-trick at Upton Park with Bournemouth in August 2015.
● West Ham’s Danny Ings has scored three Premier League goals against Newcastle, scoring those goals with a different club each time (Burnley, Southampton, Aston Villa). Only Robbie Keane (Coventry, Leeds, Spurs, Aston Villa) and Peter Crouch (Aston Villa, Southampton, Liverpool, Stoke) have scored against the Magpies with four different clubs in the competition.
● Alexander Isak has scored three goals in three away Premier League starts for Newcastle United, netting both goals in their 2-1 win at Nottingham Forest in March. Despite playing just 293 away minutes, only Miguel Almirón (6) has more away Premier League goals for the Magpies this season.