FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews JUVENTUS v NAPOLI with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
JUVENTUS V NAPOLI
7.45pm We have a treat for Friday night football this week on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE as Juventus host Napoli in a Serie A blockbuster! You don’t need me to tell you this is a massive game for both sides, but more so for Napoli who have already dropped plenty of points this season. The current Champions start this weekend a whopping 11 points off Inter Milan sitting at the top of the table. Juventus haven’t been playing fantastic football this season; but they have been grinding out plenty of results and are just two points behind Inter.
It’s hard to pinpoint what is going wrong for Napoli this season. They are playing some excellent football – if you look at the pure under-lining numbers, they are the best performing side in Serie A this season, yet they are so far off the pace. Their overall performance figure is +0.79. Their average xG created is 1.93, which is a good bit ahead of the next best of 1.74 from Inter Milan. Napoli have been very solid at the back too; their average xG conceded of 1.14 is the third best defensive figure in the league this season.
Those attacking and defensive figures are way better than Juventus, however you have to give Juventus massive credit for their ability to get results this season. Their average xG created is 1.46 which, on paper, is a good bit away from Napoli. They have been conceding marginally more chances too; their average xG conceded is 1.21 which is still very reasonable. Their overall performance figure is +0.25 which is basically one third of Napoli! If you were picking a side based on performance levels you would love this Napoli side, but it’s Juventus who are nine point ahead of them!
Juventus come into the game as favourites in a very open market, understandable given they have home advantage. Juventus are 2.6 with Napoli 3.0 and the draw is trading 3.3 at the time of writing. Napoli have a very good recent record against Juventus; they have won three of the last four meetings, the other being a draw. I know Napoli aren’t getting the results this season, but the 2.6 on Juventus does feel a little short here. We tend to see goals when the sides meet too; 61% of the meetings between the sides have had Over 2.5 goals. That’s trading 2.1 here, but this seasons under-lining numbers don’t screams Overs here.
Napoli have an average xG conceded of just 1.16 away from home, while Juventus have been excellent at home this season. Their average xG conceded is only 1.02 at home which is very impressive. I wouldn’t even be surprised to see a 0-0 here which is trading 11.0. I couldn’t put anyone off that bet, but I like the Juventus lay here at 2.6 – it’s a nice position to have the draw on our side too in my opinion. Obviously it is a worry that Napoli haven’t been getting the results they deserve, so I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Juventus to beat Napoli at 2.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
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