FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews the Serie A games between SALERNITANA v INTER MILAN and AC MILAN v EMPOLI both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.


4pm Friday night football comes from Serie A in Europe this week on BETDAQ Betting Exchange!! We have a cracking evening ahead with both Milan clubs in action – Serie A has moved their fixtures forward a little to allow them more time to prepare for their Champions League Quarter-Finals next week. We start the evening earlier than usual at 4pm as Salernitana host Inter Milan. Would it be fair to say Inter Milan are in a mini-crisis? They have lost four of their last five Serie A games! On paper they are in a crisis, but if you look at their under-lining numbers you wouldn’t be too concerned. They have played good football, even great football, and results just haven’t gone their way. They finished the Bologna loss with a marginally higher xG figure than they conceded, lost 2-1 to Spezia with an xG of 3.51 and 1-0 to Fiorentina with an xG of 2.71. Then they lost 1-0 to Juventus with an xG of over double what they conceded too. They played Juventus again midweek in the Coppa Italia – we had absolute carnage at the end with two goals in the last ten minutes for a 1-1 draw along with three players sent off, two for Inter Milan and one for Juventus – the game was basically over by then, even had a red card after the final whistle!

The second leg will be an entertaining affair! Although Inter have that to look forward to, and a Champions League Quarter-Final midweek too against Benfica on Tuesday, they can’t afford to ease up here given the battle for a top four finish. They start this game sitting in fourth spot, on the same amount of points as Roma sitting in fifth. Obviously they’ve dropped plenty of points recently, and although the title race is over they simply can’t afford to drop out of the top four. They should really be beating a side like Salernitana, however Salernitana have put together five games unbeaten now – four draws and the 1.49 on Inter looks a little short. It certainly isn’t a price I would be rushing to back this weekend. Salernitana have tried to keep their games as tight as possible lately – probably shrewd considering they have been conceding too many goals this season. Inter are creating a lot, but not taking their chances. I like Under 2.5 goals at 2.15 – I can see Inter grinding out a win and having to work very hard. I’m going to keep stakes reasonably limited however as you have to expect the fact Inter have been recording some good xG figures recently.

The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.15 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

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8pm We stay in Serie A to finish the evening as AC Milan host Empoli. Like Inter Milan in the game above, AC Milan have a Champions League Quarter-Final next week, they meet Napoli in an all-Serie A clash. They would have got a huge boost for that game too by hammering Napoli 4-0 at the weekend! I know Napoli have such a big lead at the top of the table that the fixture didn’t matter much to them in the grand scheme of things, but as I said at the time it would have had a mental impact on the upcoming Champions League clash. From a Serie A point of view it was an important win for AC Milan – they badly needed it after losing to Udinese and Fiorentina along with drawing against Salernitana. Napoli are running away with the title, but things are very tight in the top four race. Lazio have taken full advantage of AC Milan, Inter Milan and Roma dropping points in recent weeks to be clear second, but then there’s only one point between AC Milan, Inter Milan and Roma. With all them losing games too, Atalanta have crawled back into the mix after looking like they were out of it too. This game in important for AC Milan – Empoli are an average side sitting down in 14th, and simply have to win games like this. Empoli haven’t been great away from home this season either, only 12 points which isn’t the worst return but it puts them in the bottom six on the away form table.

The market is quite confident on the home win here with AC Milan trading 1.42 at the time of writing. AC Milan have won the last four meetings between the sides in Serie A, and with home advantage I would happily include AC Milan in any Betdaq Multiple this weekend at 1.42. Empoli might be away from the relegation battle, but their under-lining numbers are very poor. They are conceding an average xG of 1.7 this season and only creating 1.0. You usually see figures like that from sides in a relegation battle, indeed the xG table actually puts them into the bottom three which is quite the statement when you consider the bottom three in Serie A have been very poor this season and adrift. Empoli will need big changes in the summer. I can see a smooth win for AC Milan here, and I like the 2.19 on the home side to cover the 1.5 goal Handicap.

The Ultra Says:
Three points win AC Milan -1.5 goals to beat Empoli at 2.19 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here ->

DAQMAN Sun: Hamilton NAP
DAQSTATS Sun: Hamilton NAP
THE STRIKER Sun: Super Sunday Preview
THE ULTRA Sun: Serie A and La Liga Preview
PAT HEALY: All eyes on Harvest Festival
WEEK AHEAD: Premier League, Solheim Cup, Rugby World Cup
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