MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Monday’s Serie A action between EMPOLI v ATALANTA and LAZIO v FIORENTINA with recommended BETDAQ bets.
EMPOLI V ATALANTA
5.30pm Monday night football from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this week comes from Serie A. We have two very interesting markets to look at here. To be honest it’s been a fascinating matchday in Serie A with some huge clashes towards the top of the table – it was actually a fantastic weekend all over Europe with Jude Bellingham winning El Clasico in injury time in La Liga and then Harry Kane scoring from his own half in the Bundesliga. We might not have the most glamorous fixture here as Empoli host Atalanta, but I’m sure there will be some big opinions either side of the book on the Atalanta price at 1.69. The home win is trading 5.5, while the draw is 4.3 at the time of writing. Empoli had a dreadful start to the season, but they finally moved out of the relegation zone with two wins from four games. Atalanta are sitting in the top three with their attacking record this season – although that hasn’t quite translated into the points they have deserved it’s clear they are playing some very nice football. In terms of xG created, only Napoli and Inter Milan are ahead of them this season.
Most Serie A fans will be aware though that Atalanta have had good xG figures for a few years now, but they always tend to struggle to take their chances. While Atalanta sit towards the top of the xG created table, Empoli are down towards the bottom. An average xG of 1.06 isn’t the worst record in Serie A, but it is in the bottom five and they have really struggled this season. Not only have they been poor going forward but they’ve also been poor at the back. Their average xG conceded is 1.71 which heading into this matchday round of fixtures was the worst record in Serie A. The only positive here for Empoli is they have home advantage; they don’t concede as many chances at home while Atalanta don’t create as much and concede a little more. That being said, on performance levels there’s only one winner here and I’m happy to take the 1.69 on Atalanta – I just won’t go crazy on the stakes but I see one way traffic for Atalanta.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Atalanta to beat Empoli at 1.69 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EmpAta
LAZIO V FIORENTINA
7.45pm We stay in Serie A for the highlight of Monday night football as Lazio host Fiorentina. This is a massive game for both sides as they try and push for a European spot this season. Fiorentina finished just outside the European spots last season, so that’s obviously a huge goal for them this season. Lazio finished in the top four last season, indeed in second behind Napoli but it’s clear that they won’t be repeating that this season. In fairness, their performance levels were a lot lower than the other sides in the European spots last season – you have to give them massive credit for grinding out results when everyone else bar Napoli was throwing away points but it was pretty obvious they would fall back to reality this season looking at their under-lining numbers. They are sitting mid-table again this season on performance levels. Their average xG created is 1.28 and they are conceding more chances at 1.42. Fiorentina have more-or-less the opposite figures; their average xG created is 1.4 and they are conceding an average of 1.25. Their xG level is +0.15 while Lazio is -0.14.
You’d have to expect this to be a very close and cagey affair. I was a little surprised when I clicked into the market to see Lazio trading as short as 2.34 with Fiorentina 3.3 and the draw is 3.5 at the time of writing. I thought we’d have a much more open market. I know Lazio have home advantage but they haven’t actually created more chances away from home this season compared to at home. The positive for Lazio is that they have been much more solid at the back in front of their own fans. You could say that Fiorentina have struggled away from home too; they are conceding more than they are creating away from home. I still feel the 2.34 on Lazio is too short because I expect a closer game than those odds suggest, however the draw looks a very nice bet here at 3.5. I see this game being very close, and the 3.5 looks nice value!
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LazFio