MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews JUVENTUS v UDINESE and ALMERIA v ATHLETIC BILBAO both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
JUVENTUS V UDINESE
7.45pm It’s the start of a huge week from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with the Champions League and Europa League knockout stages starting, and we kick it off with Monday night football from Serie A and La Liga. We start the action with a cracker from Serie A as Juventus host Udinese. We have two sides from the opposite end of the table here with Juventus starting this matchday in second and Udinese down in 16th just one point away from the relegation zone. Juventus suffered a massive blow to their title charge last weekend with a 1-0 loss to Inter Milan. There was a big gulf in performance level between the two sides at the top of the table, it felt inevitable that Inter would take over at some stage – their average xG created is 1.78 compared to Juventus at 1.38. Udinese are clearly under immense pressure given their place in the table, but they haven’t been playing too badly. They’re performance level is pretty much mid-table level, and you’d expect them to move up the table as the season goes on. They have to start taking their chances though, and stop conceding sloppy goals!
Juventus come into the game as the odds on favourites. They are trading 1.44 with Udinese 9.5 and the draw is 4.9 at the time of writing. Performance level wise, there actually isn’t much between the sides. Juventus have an average xG created of 1.38 while for Udinese it’s 1.31. Juventus have definitely been better at the back, however Udinese haven’t been too bad with an average xG conceded of 1.41 – that’s basically mid-table form as I said above. The major difference between the sides is that Juventus have been over-performing while Udinese have been under-performing. Juventus are only conceding half of the goals they should based on xG, and I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 1.44 here. However, they have been very impressive at home so I’m not keen on laying them. The bet I like is Under 2.5 goals at 1.88. Juventus have obviously been solid at the back this season, I know Udinese have conceded more goals than they should but I wouldn’t say they have been that bad at the back. Unders has won in three of the last four meetings, and it’s a nice value bet at 1.88 in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.88 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/JvnUdi
ALMERIA V ATHLETIC BILBAO
8pm We move to La Liga to finish the night as Almeria host Athletic Bilbao. We have an interesting market here, and I was very surprised to see the odds here. Athletic Bilbao are the odds on favourites at 1.78 with Almeria 5.0 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. I have to say I was surprised to see Bilbao trading as big as 1.78 here – Almeria have been nailed to the bottom of La Liga for a while now. They are still waiting for their first win of the season, and they’ve only managed six points in 23 games. They did give Real Madrid a scare recently, but things like that are going to happen over the course of the season. Another reason why Bilbao are as big as 1.78 is that Almeria haven’t been too bad going forward – their average xG created is basically at a mid-table standard. However, where they have really struggled is at the back. Their average xG conceded is the second worst in the league, but they have been conceding a host of sloppy goals too. They have conceded the most goals in La Liga this season, and when you’re conceding over two goals per game on average and scoring less than one – you’re not winning many games!
On the other hand, Bilbao are having an excellent season. I don’t expect them to actually finish in the top four, but they can say that they are in the mix for the time being. They start this matchday three points behind Atletico Madrid in fourth. I don’t think they’ll catch them but a Europa League spot would be an excellent result. Their performance level is the third best in La Liga this season with an average xG created of 1.58 and an average xG conceded of 1.17. That 1.17 is also the second best defensive figure this season in La Liga. Obviously a worry is that Bilbao haven’t been as good away from home as they are at home, however I feel Almeria are there for the taking. I would be tempted to have a Max Bet on Bilbao, but their away form is holding me back and although they haven’t got many results this season you wouldn’t say that Almeria have been playing terribly at home. Nevertheless, the 1.78 is too big here and it’s worth a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Athletic Bilbao to beat Almeria at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AlmAth