SUNDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews three matches all with a recommended BETDAQ bet starting with MONZA v NAPOLI in Serie A.
MONZA V NAPOLI
2pm With no La Liga action this weekend due to it being a Copa del Rey Final weekend, the action on Sunday from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE focuses on Serie A and the Bundesliga. We have three very interesting markets, and we kick the day off in Serie A as Monza host Napoli. There’s only three points between the sides, but the under-lining numbers couldn’t be any more different! There will be studies done and books wrote on Napoli this season – they have an average xG created of 1.87 which is the best attacking figure in Serie A and their average xG conceded of 1.15 is the second best defensive figure, yet they are sitting in mid-table. They actually have the exact same overall performance figure as Inter Milan, but the difference in points is immense. Obviously it’s been well documented that Napoli have really struggled to score goals and convert their chances this season. Their actual goals scored average is 1.47 which is quite a big difference, and why they aren’t challenging for the title. It’s been quite the drop off though to go from Champions to missing out on an European spot.
Napoli come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.91 with Monza 4.4 and the draw is 3.85 at the time of writing. Napoli games are always interesting because of the situation with their chances created v actual goals. The biggest question as ever is will they actually take their chances? Monza will definitely give them chances too; they are in the bottom six for defensive figures this season with an average xG conceded of 1.47. They have been very limited going forward; an average xG created of 1.13 is very limited. They have been more solid at home, but there’s a huge gulf in class between the sides performance wise here. I know Napoli have struggled for wins so that is clearly a reason to reduce stakes, but the 1.91 is far too big on a side who are creating the most chances in the league. As I have said before, they just have to start taking them!
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Napoli to beat Monza at 1.91 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MonNap
WOLFSBURG V GLADBACH
4.30pm Next we move over to the Bundesliga as Wolfsburg host Gladbach. This should be a very entertaining game between two sides sitting right before each other in the table with the same amount of points. Wolfsburg come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.95 with Gladbach 4.0 and the draw is the same price at 4.0 at the time of writing. These two have been Champions League sides but their level has dropped dramatic these days; they are now closer to the relegation zone than the European spots. They are both too good to go down and the bottom three looks pretty much locked in this season in the Bundesliga, but they are both only eight points off the bottom three. I don’t see them being in danger, but how close they are is a reflection of how poor both sides have been. They both have high average xG conceded figures; Wolfsburg’s figure is 1.48 which is basically mid-table level while Gladbach have been very open with an average xG conceded of 1.74. That’s the third worst defensive figure in the Bundesliga this season! We should have an open game here with plenty of mistakes from both sides.
Wolfsburg are obviously the better side looking at the under-lining numbers, and they do have home advantage too. However, the 1.95 doesn’t exact jump off the page as an excellent value bet. I feel this game absolutely screams goals, and Over 2.5 goals is trading at a very appealing 1.72. I have to say I was surprised to see it trading that big when I clicked into the market. Both sides create a similar level of chances; Gladbach have been scoring more and they will open up the game which is always a bonus when the away side wants to play an open game. Four of the last six meetings between the sides have finished with Over 2.5 goals, and Both Teams To Score is also a nice option here at 1.67. I couldn’t put anyone off either bet to be honest, but I feel we’re getting a lot of value at 1.72 on Overs and it’s my most confident bet on Sunday. It’s worth five points.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.72 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolGla
JUVENTUS V FIORENTINA
7.45pm We move back to Serie A to finish Sunday as Juventus host Fiorentina. This should be a very interesting game, and there’s a lot at stake here too. The wheels have most certainly come off Juventus’ season is recent weeks, and you could say the same about Fiorentina too. They dropped down to 10th after the weekend, and after being bang in the European fight it looks like it’s mid-table for them. It’s fair to say that both sides need a win to steady the ship and finish the season out strongly. Juventus are now in danger of being caught for third; being title challengers is a distant memory now. I know anyone who was a fan of xG knew that Inter would pull away in the title race eventually looking at the gulf in class between Juventus and Inter performance levels, but the drop has been dramatic. Juventus have only managed one win from their last nine Serie A games, and that came against Frosinone who are in the relegation battle. The only positive thing to say about Juventus at the moment is that they aren’t in danger of dropping out of the top four; they start the weekend with a seven point gap to Roma.
Fiorentina have a very similar poor run of results; they have only managed two wins from their last 11 Serie A games – those wins came against Frosinone and Lazio. It will be interesting to see how this one plays out; both sides are short on confidence. Juventus come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.87 with Fiorentina 5.0 and the draw is 3.6 at the time of writing. It’s hard to have a lot of confidence in either side given their current runs, and although Juventus have been much better at home this season compared to away from home, I still feel the 1.87 is worth laying. Fiorentina have been creating more than they are conceding away from home this season, and granted that they are on a poor run too, they can make this one closer than odds of 1.87 suggest. From a value point of view, I’m happy with a small lay on Juventus at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Juventus to beat Fiorentina at 1.87 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/JuvFnt
