EUROPA LEAGUE: The Ultra previews BACKA TOPOLA v WEST HAM, AEK ATHENS v BRIGHTON and LIVERPOOL v LASK and all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BACKA TOPOLA V WEST HAM
5.45pm The fantastic week of European action on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE continues on Thursday with some very interesting Europa League markets. We have massive games for West Ham and Brighton early doors, followed by how many goals Liverpool can score later. We kick off the evening in Group A as Backa Topola host West Ham. This is a must win game for West Ham considering Backa Topola have been the weakest team in Group A. West Ham are currently sitting in second spot just behind Freiburg on goal difference as both sides have nine points. Backa Topola have been completely out of their depth, and they have only managed one point from their four games. West Ham will be fully expected to win here, and they come into the game the massive odds on favourites. They are trading 1.27 at the time of writing, and if you fancy a shock Backa Topola are 11.5 with the draw at 7.0. Backa Topola have struggled at both ends of the pitch in the Europa League this season – their average xG created is only 0.76 and they are conceding over double that at an average of 1.88. They have been much better at home compared to away, but that is to be expected really.
West Ham might struggle to find the first goal as Backa Topola sit back, but you’d imagine once that goal goes in then the floodgates might open. West Ham had a morale boosting win at the weekend as they beat Burnley 2-1 away from home. They left it very late to win, only making it 1-1 in the 86th minute before finding the winner in the 91st minute. Wins like that are always enjoyable – you can’t beat an injury time winner! They have had a lot of issues at the back this season though; their average xG conceded in the Premier League is a very high 1.73. That’s the third worst figure in the Premier League this season; only Sheffield United and Luton Town have been worse at the back. Backa Topola managed to score in a 3-1 defeat against West Ham in London, and Both Teams To Score is trading odds on 1.94 here. West Ham have conceded so many chances I feel this is a nice position – Backa Topola have scored in their two home games in the Europa League. The 1.94 offers some value in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.94 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BacWes
AEK ATHENS V BRIGHTON
5.45pm Next we move to Group B as AEK Athens host Brighton. Brighton are on a revenge mission here. We had huge fanfare for Brighton’s first European game as they hosted AEK Athens but the party was spoiled with a shock 3-2 wins for Athens! Brighton started that game trading in the 1.2’s and it really put them on the backfoot. After that loss, they could only draw with Marseille but back-to-back wins against Ajax has put them into second and into a reasonably strong position. Marseille top the Group with eight points, but Brighton are only one point behind – a win here would put them in an excellent position and they still must fancy their chances of topping the Group. I was surprised to see Brighton trading as big as 2.0 when I clicked into the market here; AEK Athens are 3.7 and the draw is 4.1. There’s a huge gulf in class between the sides here, but it’s worth noting that AEK Athens haven’t played too badly at home. They managed to draw with Ajax here, however Ajax are having a terrible season and they did lose 2-0 to Marseille. Brighton have been on a poor run in the Premier League lately, but the International break probably came at a good time for them – they came back with a 3-2 win away to Nottingham Forest at the weekend. Still leaking goals at the back, but finally found their scoring boots again.
Brighton had gone six Premier League games without a win before that, but they did have to play Manchester City and Liverpool in that run. They got hammered 6-1 by Aston Villa as well, but Villa look like they could even challenge for a top four spot this season under Unai Emery. I feel that the 2.0 is a little too big on Brighton here, but I do respect the fact that AEK Athens have played solid football at home in this Group, despite not winning a game. That will make me reduce my stakes a little, and two points feels like a nice position. Brighton have been leaking goals recently, and Over 2.5 goals is also a nice option at around 1.65. I can’t see a cagey game here; Brighton don’t know how to play a cagey game to be honest! We had plenty of chances when the sides met earlier in the Group; both bets are good options in my opinion but I just feel there’s slightly more value in the Brighton win.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Brighton to beat AEK Athens at 2.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AthBri
LIVERPOOL V LASK
8pm We finish Thursday night in Group E as Liverpool host LASK. This is a case of how many goals can Liverpool score rather than will they win such is the gulf in class between the sides. We all saw the viral video of the LASK players reacting to the news that they had Liverpool in their Group and they were all delighted to get the chance to play an Anfield. I’m sure this will be a great experience for them, but I never understood the idea of celebrating meeting a European giant for the smaller sides – I’d want the easiest draw possible and a better chance of going further in the competition! LASK just haven’t been up to the standard needed in this Group, and they currently sit bottom of the table. Liverpool are on top, but they did hit a setback in their last game with a 3-2 loss away to Toulouse. That leaves them with nine points, still top of the Group and a two point advantage but they still have work to do. They will be fully expected to win here given the gulf in class between the sides, and they come into the game as the long odds on favourites. Jurgen Klopp’s men are trading as short as 1.13 at the time of writing, and if you fancy a shock LASK are 22.0 with the draw at 12.0.
I think this is a case of how many goals can Liverpool score rather than will they win! I’m sure they will be a popular selection to add to any Acca this week, but we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value here. The 1.13 on Liverpool is the shortest price in the Europa League this week anyway! Liverpool games in the Europa League have had plenty of goals in them so far; only one from four finished with Under 2.5 goals, and that was a smooth 2-0 win to Liverpool. The market is expecting goals here with Over 2.5 goals trading 1.35, but that is mostly expected to be Liverpool goals because Both Teams To Score is 2.35. I know Liverpool have given away a huge amount of goals and chances lately, but the 2.35 doesn’t jump off the page here – Liverpool should dominate the game really. Liverpool are trading 1.99 -2.5 goals and I feel this is a nice position for a small bet. Liverpool have an exceptional average xG created is 1.93 in the Premier League this season and they can rack up a big score here on their way to winning.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Liverpool -2.5 goals to beat LASK at 1.99 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivLas