CHAMPIONS LEAGUE TUESDAY: The Ultra previews the return of the Champions League and the three games between AC MILAN v NEWCASTLE, PSG v DORTMUND and MANCHESTER CITY v RED STAR BELGRADE all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
AC MILAN V NEWCASTLE
5.45pm The Champions League is back, and we have a fantastic week of action on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! The draw has thrown out some superb clashes at the Group stage, and we also have the added interest in the likes of Newcastle being in the Champions League this season as well as Arsenal returning after so long. Newcastle fans were living in dream world getting into the Champions League so early in the new project since the new owners took over but then they were brought back down to reality with a bump when they got AC Milan, PSG and Dortmund in their Group! Group F is where we start the first evening as Newcastle travel to take on AC Milan. We have the most open market of the evening here; AC Milan are marginal favourites but there isn’t many ticks between the sides. AC Milan are 2.68 with Newcastle trading 2.8 and the draw is 3.6 at the time of writing. Both sides had different fortunes at the weekend; Newcastle got a much needed win over Brentford after losing three Premier League games in a row while AC Milan suffered their first defeat of the Serie A season in the Milan Derby. The Milan sides went into that game being the only two sides with a 100% record in Serie A, and it was a bit of a thrashing with Inter winning 5-1.
This should be a very interesting game. You’d have to say comparing the two leagues, they are basically playing at the same level. You wouldn’t be surprised if they both missed out on the top four this season either to be honest – Newcastle will definitely find it tough although Manchester United and Chelsea have started the season terribly. Newcastle have had a difficult fixture list having had to play Man City, Liverpool and Brighton but their performances haven’t set the world on fire. You can say a very similar thing about AC Milan – for example their average xG created is 1.37 and average conceded is 1.17. Both sides have definitely been a lot more comfortable at home compared to away; both of them are actually conceding more chances than they are creating away from home. That would definitely be a worry for Newcastle heading into this tie, and of course they’ll have to deal with the occasion with this being their first Champions League fixture, but I feel the draw is a nice value bet at 3.6. I can see a very close and cagey game here; neither side is creating a huge amount and they can cancel each other out.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AcmNew
PSG V DORTMUND
8pm We have some real European blockbuster fixtures in the Group stage this season, and PSG v Dortmund is one of them. Both clubs come into this season with plenty of questions hanging around them, especially PSG after losing Messi and Neymar this summer. That’s not even mentioning the whole Mbappe to Saudi Arabia drama that didn’t happen, but the club believes he has agreed terms with Real Madrid already – imagine losing one of the best players in the world on a free. That’s crippling. It is fair to say that the star name approach hasn’t worked for PSG though. There’s always been issues in the dressing room, and they will always be judged on their Champions League results which. they have come up short thus far. After their start to this season in Ligue 1, it looks like they’ll come up short in the Champions League this season again! After five games they aren’t even in the top four in Ligue 1 – they have had two draws and a loss at the weekend at home to Nice. Their xG figures have been better than their results, but they haven’t exactly been screaming that they are unlucky so far. Perhaps we could have a title race in France this season which is always nice! Dortmund should be coming into this season as Bundesliga Champions but they fluffed their lines on the final day – it’s hard to believe that they’ll get another chance to win at the title as good as that one. After the weekend they are two points behind Bayern Munich but it’s early days; they basically need Bayern to perform way below their level again. Who would have thought they’d get their best chance at a title the year Erling Haaland left though!
This should be a cracking game, and there’s plenty of questions to be answered too! PSG come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.83 with Dortmund 4.5 and the draw is 4.3 at the time of writing. When the sides met in the Champions League in 2020, PSG won when they had home advantage and Dortmund won with home advantage too. On paper, this game screams goals but it did it 2020 too and we saw score lines of 2-0 and 2-1. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.59 so the market is expecting goals again and to be honest it’s hard to see past goals here. Both sides have been conceding some very sloppy goals this season already, and we all know how attacking they both are too. Dortmund are even more attacking than PSG and it won’t bother them being away from home. I have to say the PSG lay is tempting at 1.83 because they do have a poor midfield this season but I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here and go with Over 2.5 goals at 1.59. This should be a very entertaining game!
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.59 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PsgDor
MANCHESTER CITY V RED STAR BELGRADE
8pm We move over to Group G to finish Tuesday evening as Manchester City host Red Star Belgrade. City come into this game as the exceptionally heavy odds on favourites – the market can’t see past the home win here with Pep Guardiola’s men trading as short as 1.08 at the time of writing. You don’t need me to tell you that’s the shortest price of any side in the Champions League this week! Obviously the gulf in class between the sides in huge here, and especially with home advantage it’s close to impossible to see past a City win here. With City so short in the match odds market, we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value. City could have had a bit of drama at the weekend in the Premier League as they were 1-0 down to West Ham away from home but in true City fashion they turned things around and won 3-1. After five games in the Premier League, they are the only side left with a 100% record and at the moment you’d have to say they have a fantastic chance of repeating their Premier League and Champions League wins this season! It’s always hard to win the Champions League given you need to deliver at the right times against the top sides, but it’s clear that City are by far the best side in Europe.
If the likes of Real Madrid and Bayern Munich can’t handle this City side, it’s hard to see Red Star Belgrade stopping them! The market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.24 and the market is also expecting City to do all the work there because Both Teams Not To Score is trading 1.6. City have been conceding goals recently – they conceded against Sheffield United, Fulham and West Ham on the way to winning, but Red Star Belgrade are probably a level or two below those clubs. City have also been rock solid at the back – their average xG conceded in the Premier League this season is just 0.77 which is best record at the moment. That’s not even mentioning their average xG of over 2.0 going forward. They just look unstoppable at the moment, and they can cover the 2.5 goal Handicap here with is trading a very nice price at 1.61. A very similar price to Both Teams Not To Score which is basically a City clean sheet bet, but I prefer the Handicap bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Manchester City -2.5 goals to beat Red Star Belgrade at 1.61 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciRed