TUESDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews CLUB BRUGGE v ASTON VILLA, PSV v ARSENAL and REAL MADRID v ATLETICO MADRID with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
CLUB BRUGGE V ASTON VILLA
5.45pm: The Champions League is back on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! We have some blockbuster fixtures this week as we begin the Last 16 – the new Group format received a lot of criticism with plenty of meaningless fixtures towards the end; however the knockout stages have really given us some mouth-watering fixtures. All eyes will be on the Madrid Derby later in the evening but we kick off the action on Tuesday with the early kick off as Club Brugge host Aston Villa. There’s no getting away from the fact that Aston Villa would have been delighted with this draw compared to some of the other sides they could have been facing at this stage. However, it would be foolish to write off Club Brugge just because of their size. They knocked out Atalanta to reach here, and they have been hard to beat at home. These two sides actually met here in the Group stage with Club Brugge winning 1-0 – they held Villa to a low xG figure and deserved to win the game. Not only did they beat Villa here, but they also beat Sporting Lisbon and held Juventus to a draw at the Group stage, then beat Atalanta twice in the knockouts. Villa have their hands full here.
It’s very interesting to the market movement between when the sides met at the Group stage and now. At the time, Villa had got off to a lightening start and had beaten Bayern Munich – they were trading 2.22 to win here. Now we have a much more open betting heat – Aston Villa are still the favourites at 2.64 with Club Brugge 2.94 and the draw is 3.55 at the time of writing. You have to admire Brugge for their run in Europe this season – it’s been incredible considering they aren’t even top of the Belgian Pro League; they’re actually nine points off Genk! Villa deserve credit too for the amount of results that they have managed to grind out; they only have an average xG created of 1.39 in the Premier League this season which is towards the bottom of the table. I know we have an open market, but now we’ve seen enough from Brugge at home to know they are exceptionally tough to beat. I would actually have an even more open betting heat with Villa a little bigger in price. From a value point of view, I’m happy with the Villa lay.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Aston Villa to beat Club Brugge at 2.64 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
PSV V ARSENAL
8pm: We have some fantastic games kicking off at 8pm. As I said above, the Madrid Derby will likely take all the headlines here, but PSV hosting Arsenal is a fascinating game too. Arsenal have had plenty of time to prepare for this fixture given it was an FA Cup weekend in England and they are out of that. They are also out of the Premier League title battle too with a loss to West Ham and then a draw to Nottingham Forest. There’s been a lot of pressure on Arteta recently – the amount of time he has been at Arsenal and the lack of trophies is now a common debate. Erik ten Hag won more in Manchester United’s worst years. An exit from the Champions League now would certainly pile the pressure on even more so than the past few weeks. On paper, this is a tie that Arsenal should come through – but the first leg will just be about getting through the 90 minutes in my opinion – a draw wouldn’t be the worst outcome here even allowing for the fact that Arsenal come into the game as decent favourites. Arsenal are trading 2.16 with PSV 3.9 and the draw is 3.5 at the time of writing.
PSV are five points off Ajax at the top of the Eredivisie, but they have been very strong at home in the Champions League. They beat Juventus 3-1 to get here, after being 2-1 down after the first leg. They beat Liverpool 3-2 but obviously Liverpool had already topped the Group at that stage – but they haven’t been beaten at home with a draw to Sporting Lisbon along with a 4-0 win over Girona and 3-2 against Shakhtar. As I said above, a draw wouldn’t be the worst result for Arsenal here. Obviously there is a big gulf in class between the sides from a domestic football point of view, but Arsenal don’t look full of confidence at the moment and PSV clearly have a good record at home. I feel this one will be closer than the odds suggest on Arsenal, and from a value point of view I’m happy to lay Arteta’s men at 2.16. We might see a big over-reaction in the UK media if Arsenal fail to win here; but this looks tough on paper.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Arsenal to beat PSV at 2.16 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
REAL MADRID V ATLETICO MADRID
8pm: We finish Tuesday night with one of the blockbuster fixtures of the Last 16! Real Madrid host Atletico Madrid with everything at stake for these two clubs – they are both in a title battle in La Liga, but Real Madrid dropping points there at the weekend losing to Real Betis. They are also both in the Copa del Rey Semi-Finals, and could easily meet in the Final. Now it’s bragging rights in the Champions League; the sides have already met twice in La Liga this season and both times we had a 1-1 draw. As always, we should have a fascinating clash. Real Madrid come into the game as the marginal odds on favourites at 1.94 with Atletico Madrid 4.4 and the draw is 3.75 at the time of writing. Real Madrid have dropped points in four of their last five La Liga fixtures; sandwiched in between was a wonderful display knocking Manchester City out of the Champions League. They were poor at the weekend against Real Betis though; didn’t create much and given how hard Atletico have been to beat this season I wouldn’t be rushing to take the odds on here. You just know Diego Simeone will have his side set up superbly well at the back.
Atletico have conceded the fewest goals in La Liga this season, and while they haven’t done anything flashy up front – you have to give them massive credit for grinding out as many results as they have. Even in the recent Madrid Derby in La Liga here, Real were all over them for a large part of the game but they manage to tough it out with a draw. Simeone went viral in a clip at the weekend cheering on tackles like a mad man on the side line – that is classic Simeone and Atletico. Once again I feel the favourite is a little too short here, and I expect the game to be closer than odds of 1.94. From a value point of view, I’m happy with the Real lay. The obvious worry is the fact that when the sides met here recently, Real finished the game with an xG of 2.83 but Atletico still managed to hold out. That is an exceptionally high xG in fairness so I will reduce stakes, but I still feel the Real lay is the value call.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Real Madrid to beat Atletico Madrid at 1.94 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
