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5.45pm We finish the Champions League Group stage on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE on Wednesday night! All eyes will no doubt be on Group F involving Newcastle later in the evening, but we kick off the night with Manchester City in action away to Red Star Belgrade in Group G. With five wins from five games, City are already certain of top spot, and unfortunately for Red Star Belgrade they are going to finish bottom of the Group and end their European journey this season. With City certain of top spot, you’d have to expect Pep Guardiola to rest most of his main XI here. As I mentioned in my preview of Tuesday’s fixtures, the UK sides have a hectic December schedule ahead with games all through Christmas and New Year. It’s not the same for other European leagues, and Guardiola has to take every chance he can to rest players. There’s still a huge gulf in class between the clubs however, and it would be a surprise if City didn’t win with a second XI. Red Star Belgrade just haven’t been up to Champions League standard, even losing to Young Boys last time out.

I’d expect changes from Guardiola here, but City still come into the game as the red-hot favourites. They are trading as short as 1.38 at the time of writing with Red Star Belgrade 9.0 and the draw is 6.0. City finally put an end to their run without a win in the Premier League at the weekend with a 2-1 win over Luton Town; it was more hard fought than expected to be honest. City absolutely hammered Red Star Belgrade when they had home advantage earlier in the Group; they only scored three times but they has an xG of over 3.0. I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.38 on City given the situation, but you definitely don’t want to be against them here. I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market here, and I like Over 2.5 goals at 1.57. Red Star have managed to score in all up one of their Champions League games this season, and Both Teams To Score is a tempting bet at 1.9 but I prefer to be on Over 2.5 goals will on the City firepower; even with a few changes.

The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.57 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here ->


8pm It’s crunch time in Group F! Newcastle fans will be glued to both games; as it stands Dortmund are already through with ten points. Then we have a three points gap to PSG on seven points followed by Newcastle and AC Milan both on five points. Newcastle need to win against AC Milan and then Dortmund to beat PSG. We should have two superb games! If Newcastle win, a draw isn’t good enough for PSG so you’d expect a very entertaining game here. Neither side has been at their best domestically this season; Dortmund are outside the top four, and they are four points back now too after a loss to RB Leipzig at the weekend. It was an entertaining game, but RB Leipzig came out on top with a 3-2 win. PSG have also had their problems this season, they even had a very slow start in Ligue 1 – it’s always hard to judge where PSG actually stand because there is such a gulf in class between them and the rest of Ligue 1. They don’t really have to be at their best to win. They’ve been on a decent winning run lately, and after the weekend they have a four point gap at the top of the table.

PSG come into the game as the odds on favourites – they are trading 1.94 at the time of writing with Dortmund 4.0 and the draw is 4.2. PSG ran out 2-0 winners when they had home advantage earlier in the Group, but Dortmund probably should have scored at some stage. Most of Dortmund’s problems have come away from home this season – I know they lost here at the weekend to RB Leipzig but they lost a man after 15 minutes. They have been a lot more solid at home; their average xG conceded in the Bundesliga is only 1.19 at home – compare that to their away figure at 1.87! I feel the 1.94 on PSG is just a little too short here, but I respect the fact that they are in a much better place now with things going well in Ligue 1. Over 2.5 goals is definitely an interesting bet at 1.64, but I’m happy with a small lay on PSG from a value point of view – I just feel we’re going to have a closer game than the odds suggest.

The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) PSG to beat Dortmund at 1.94 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here ->


8pm Crunch time for Newcastle next as they host AC Milan. Newcastle couldn’t have started this Group any better – they picked up a draw away to AC Milan and then beat PSG 4-1 on a famous night at St James’ Park. Since then though, things have gone very wrong! Back-to-back losses against Dortmund in the two middle fixtures in the Group really put them on the backfoot, and now a win here might not even be good enough. They would still go into the Europa League with a win or a draw however, with a run in the Europa League not being the worst outcome really given the very difficult Group they were dealt here! Newcastle have been going through a very tough spell in the Premier League, but most of their issues have come away from home – their last five away games have been very disappointing. They drew with West Ham and Wolves, then lost to Bournemouth, Everton and Spurs. It was a very disappointing week for them coming into this game too; 3-0 and 4-1 losses to Everton and Spurs. Confidence must be pretty low; but at home they have been a different side. Their last three Premier League home games have been wins against Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United!

I know Chelsea and Manchester United haven’t been that good this season, but they are probably at least at the same level as AC Milan. It’s been a weird season for AC Milan in Serie A; they are sitting in the top four but their xG figures are very poor. Their average xG created is only 1.32 and they are marginally conceding more than that at 1.33. That’s mid-table form at best, but you do have to give them credit for grinding out a lot of results. Their figures have been more-or-less the same at home and away, so I don’t think being away is a major negative here. Newcastle come into the game as the odds on favourites; they are trading 1.93 with AC Milan 4.1 and the draw is 4.0 at the time of writing. A very similar market to the Dortmund v PSG game, just different home and away favourites! I know it’s hard to have confidence in Newcastle at the moment because of their recent results, but as I said above at home they have been a different side. AC Milan are there for the taking too, they have been very average this season and I’m happy with the 1.93 on Newcastle.

The Ultra Says:
Two points win Newcastle to beat AC Milan at 1.93 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

You can view all markets here ->

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