EUROPA LEAGUE FINAL: The Ultra previews Wednesday’s final between SEVILLA v ROMA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
SEVILLA V ROMA
8pm We have the first of Europe’s major Finals on Wednesday night as Sevilla and Roma clash in the Europa League Final on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. It goes without saying that this is a huge fixture for both sides, however it is more important than ever with Sevilla and Roma sitting outside of their respective Champions League spots in La Liga and Serie A. For Sevilla, it would be a chance to gloss over a woeful, there’s no other way to explain it, season in La Liga. While for Roma it would be an incredible journey for Jose Mourinho (pictured below) – Roma only landed their first major European trophy last season in the Europa Conference League – to collect the Europa League the season after would be quite the feat, and then Jose has his side back in the Champions League too!
Both sides lost at the weekend, with Sevilla losing 2-1 to Real Madrid and Roma by the same score line to Fiorentina. Sevilla sat in the relegation zone for a long part of the La Liga season, but ever since they came back from 2-0 down at half-time against Manchester United at Old Trafford they have been finishing the season strongly. That was the first leg of the Quarter-Final of this competition, they absolutely bossed the second leg and then beating Juventus in the Semi-Final would have given them huge confidence. They still have issues at the back, as they have had all season however. Their average xG conceded in La Liga this season is 1.6, and they have conceded recent figures of 2.63 and 2.61 while winning those games. It seems the only thing to have changed is their confidence levels – they are still dodgy at the back!
Roma have really struggled domestically to finish the season. They’ve gone seven Serie A games without a win, just at the wrong time of the season too. They have struggled with injuries, and of course a lot of focus has been on this tournament too. They sat in the top four prior to that run, but losses against Atalanta and Inter Milan really hurt them, not mentioning the other dropped points. Even with Juventus getting a ten point deduction didn’t help – after the loss against Fiorentina at the weekend they sat down in sixth just one point ahead of Juventus so they have a battle on for a Europa League spot at the weekend if they lose here. They play Spezia too, who are fighting to stay up sitting just outside the relegation battle on goal difference so although they meet a low quality side, they do have so much to play for.
It’s not a surprise that we have a very open betting heat here. Sevilla are the favourites at the time of writing – they are trading 2.86 with Roma 3.05 and the draw is also 3.05. Although both sides haven’t been at their best domestically, they have really turned up for games in this tournament. Roma really parked the bus in the second leg of the Semi-Final but you can’t knock that – they were away from home and 1-0 up. They only created an xG of 0.06, a classic Jose Mourinho park the bus job! Roma will have to be more adventurous here, but overall they have been more solid at the back compared to Sevilla. Roma’s average xG concede in Serie A this season is 0.8 so only half what Sevilla have been conceding.
Both sides are very similar going forward. Roma’s average xG created is 1.6, while Sevilla’s is 1.5. It’s telling that Sevilla have been conceding more than they are creating, and that’s reflected in their poor season domestically. The positive about Sevilla however is they come into the Final playing their best football of the season. They have the momentum and the confidence, and I can understand why they are favourites. I do expect a very tight game here however, so I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market and focus on the goals market.
Despite having a bet in the goals market, I couldn’t put anyone off the draw here at 3.05. I fully expect a very cagey game without many chances. The market is also expecting a cagey game with Under 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.55. There’s two bets I like here – the first is Under 1.5 goals at 2.75 and the second is Both Teams Not To Score at 1.82. I just feel we’ll have two sides here that will clash in terms of styles, and we won’t have the best game of football. It’s hard to see either side playing an open brand of football – it’s just not in their set up in this situation. Under 1.5 goals looks cracking value at 2.75, and I’m happy with a three point bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 1.5 goals at 2.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SevRom