Washington Redskins (3-10, 4-9 ATS) @ New York Giants (4-9, 5-8 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: New York -6.5 (47)
Significant Injuries
Washington: DE Jason Hatcher (questionable– knee), S Brandon Meriweather (questionable– toe), DE Kedric Golston (questionable– back), RB Roy Helu (questionable– toe), WR DeSean Jackson (questionable– leg), QB Colt McCoy (questionable– neck)
New York: LB Jacquain Williams (questionable– concussion), OT James Brewer (questionable– concussion), LB Mark Herzlich (questionable– concussion), G Geoff Schwartz (out– ankle)
Recent Trends
Washington is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record
Washington is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall
New York is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record
New York is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. NFC opponents
New York is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall
The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 4-1 in Washington’s last 5 games vs. NFC East opponents
The UNDER is 7-1 in New York’s last 8 games following a win of more than 14 points
The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Washington
1.The Redskins are a prime “buy low” candidate this week: they’re coming off an ugly loss and have been subject to intense media scrutiny over the past few weeks, making them an “avoid at all costs” team for most bettors. However, those people are overlooking the important stuff, like what actually happens on the field. Fact is, Washington is the only team in the NFC East to rank in the top-12 in both total offense and total defense. New York has been much worse on both sides of the ball this year according to the numbers. And remember, the Giants have lost 7 of their past 8 games and haven’t won at home since Week 5. There’s only one sensible option here: take the points.
2. Washington has an excellent defense that ranks on the top-half of the league in every major statistical category (except for points allowed, and that can be blamed on turnover issues when RGIII and Kirk Cousins were quarterbacking the offense), and the Giants have an sputtering, inconsistent offense that has produced 24 points or fewer 8 times this season (and 14 points or fewer four times). In games against Detroit, Arizona, Seattle, and San Francisco– all teams with quality defenses– the Giants scored 14, 14, 17, and 10 points. This is not an offense that should be relied upon as a favorite of nearly a touchdown.
3. The Giants have a leaky defense that’s especially bad against the run, as only two teams leaguewide are surrendering more than the 134.5 rush yards per game that the Giants allow. The Redskins have a capable young back in Alfred Morris and they’ve averaged over 100 yards per game on the ground this season, so this is a nice matchup for the Washington offense.
Three reasons to back New York
1. The Giants finally played to their capability last week in a 36-7 thrashing of Tennessee, and this week they return home to face a Washington team that’s a dysfunctional mess at the moment. The Redskins have lost 5 straight games and were just shut out at home by the St. Louis Rams. Making matters worse, their head coach has publicly “called out” franchise quarterback Robert Griffin III in the media, and at this point it’s not clear if either man will be with the team next year. And if you still need more convincing about the home team’s merit here, consider that when these teams met back in Week 4 it wasn’t even competitive, as New York rolled to a 45-14 win. There’s no reason to expect anything different this time around.
2. New York ranks in the top-half of the league in both total offense and points scored, so they shouldn’t have any trouble getting things going against a Washington defense that allows 26.6 points per game. And if the Giants can approach 30 points their bettors can rest easy, because Washington is bad and only getting worse on the offensive side of the ball. The Skins average just 18.8 points per game and the last month has been a disaster, as they’ve been held to 13 points or fewer 3 times in their past 4 games, including the aforementioned shutout loss to the Rams.
3. The Giants are better than the Redskins, that much is clear: they have a superior record, they’ve performed better against the spread, they score more points, they allow fewer points, and they easily dispatched the Skins back in Week 4. There are still some bettors likely to be hung up on the 6.5-point number, though, but they shouldn’t be. Why? Because when the Giants win they win big and when the Redskins lose they lose big, that’s why. All four of New York’s wins this season have come by double-digits, and Washington has suffered a staggering 7 double-digit losses. The points won’t come into play here.
Prediction
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