Oakland Raiders (2-11, 7-6 ATS) @ Kansas City Chiefs (7-6, 8-5 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Kansas City -10.5 (41.5)
Significant Injuries
Oakland: CB Tarell Brown (questionable– foot), DT Pat Sims (questionable– shoulder), LB Sio Moore (questionable– hip), TE Brian Leonhardt (out– concussion), WR Denarius Moore (out– knee), OT Menelik Watson (out– foot)
Kansas City: LB Tamba Hali (questionable– knee), CB Phillip Gaines (doubtful– concussion), DE Allen Bailey (out– concussion)
Recent Trends
Oakland is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
Oakland is 7-1 ATS i their last 8 games in Kansas City
Oakland is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a win
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record
The UNDER is 5-2 in Oakland’s last home games
The UNDER is 21-8 in Kansas City’s last 29 home games
The UNDER is 7-2 in Kansas City’s last 9 games overall
The UNDER is 15-4 in the last 19 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Oakland
1. The Raiders are playing their best football of the season, having won 2 of their past 3 games, and the Chiefs are moving in the opposite direction, as three straight losses now have them on the verge of being eliminated from playoff contention. The 10.5-point number here is simply out of hand, especially when you consider that Oakland beat the Chiefs 24-20 just three weeks ago. Plus, the Raiders are always a good bet in KC, covering in 7 of their last 8 opportunities.
2. Kansas City ranks 26th in total offense and they’ve scored 24 points or fewer in 8 of their past 9 games. They’re extremely one-dimensional on that side of the ball, as only one team has passed for fewer yards this season, and they’ll be even more one-dimensional than usual this week because the Raiders are excellent in the secondary, ranking 7th against the pass. A plodding, predictable offense covering a double-digit number? Don’t bet on it.
3. The Kansas City defense has been awful against the run this season, as only one team (Tennessee) has surrendered more rushing yards. They couldn’t handle the Oakland rushing attack three weeks ago, when Latavius Murray ran wild and the Raiders piled up 179 yards on the ground, and in the two games since the Chiefs have allowed a whopping 355 rushing yards in losses to Denver and Arizona.
Three reasons to back Kansas City
1. Okay, the Chiefs have lost three straight games. This is true. One of those losses came against Oakland. Also true. Honestly, though, the case for the Raiders ends there. Both of Oakland’s wins this season have come at home and they’ve both come in the past three weeks, but in between those two wins the Raiders took a road trip to St. Louis and were beaten 52-0. Make no mistake: Oakland is a terrible team, and Kansas City is a playoff contender that returns home this week in desperate need of a win. This one could get ugly.
2. The Raiders rank last in the NFL in total offense and 31st in points scored, as the average just 15.4 points per game. Kansas City, meanwhile, has an excellent defense that ranks 8th in yards allowed, 2nd against the pass, and 5th in points allowed. This is a first-rate mismatch.
3. The Oakland defense has allowed more points this season than all but four teams leaguewide and they’re especially bad against the run, surrendering 128 rushing yards per game. That’s bad news when you’re getting ready to face a Kansas City offense that features All Pro running back Jamaal Charles and is averaging nearly 130 yards per game on the ground.
Prediction
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