Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5, 6-7 ATS) @ Atlanta Falcons (5-8, 6-7 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Pittsburgh -2 (55)
Significant Injuries
Pittsburgh: LB James Harrison (questionable– knee), CB Ike Taylor (doubtful– shoulder)
Atlanta: FB Patrick DiMarco (questionable– illness), WR Julio Jones (questionable– hip), S William Moore (questionable– foot), CB Robert Alford (out– wrist)
Recent Trends
Pittsburgh is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 December games
Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a win
Pittsburgh is 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 road games against a team with a losing record
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 December games
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game
The OVER is 6-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 7 games overall
The UNDER is 5-1 in Atlanta’s last 6 games following a loss
The OVER is 11-5 in Atlanta’s last 16 home games
Three reasons to back Pittsburgh
1. The Steelers are playing very well at the moment, as they dismantled division-leading Cincinnati last week and have won 5 of their last 7 games overall. They’re better than the Falcons in every measurable way: a better offense, a better defense, and a better record. Atlanta’s only three wins since Week 3 have come against Carolina and Tampa Bay, two of the NFC’s worst teams, and an Arizona team that was without its starting quarterback.
2. Pittsburgh has an explosive offense that ranks 2nd in the league in both total yards per game and pass yards per game and 6th in points scored. They shouldn’t have any trouble with a Falcons defense that ranks 32nd– dead last– in both total yards allowed and pass yards allowed. Expect video game-like numbers from Ben Roethlisberger.
3. Atlanta has a terrible offensive line that can’t open up holes in the running game and is even worse in pass protection. Over the past 8 weeks the Falcons have had to alter their offense a bit due to the line, as there has been more of a focus on the short, quick passing game instead of the 7-step drop, downfield passing that has been a staple of the team’s attack for so many years. As a result, the offense has lost its explosiveness– until last week’s loss in Green Bay, a game in which the Packers changed their defensive game plan after taking a 24-point halftime lead, the Falcons had gone 9 consecutive games without scoring 30 points. They simply won’t be able to keep up with the high-scoring Steelers, who will undoubtedly be flying up and down the field against Atlanta’s porous defense.
Three reasons to back Atlanta
1. The Falcons have been playing good football since their Week 9 bye– they’ve won 3 times and have lost to Cleveland and Green Bay, two potential playoff teams, by a combined 8 points. Pittsburgh has been very unreliable this season and they’ve been terrible in road games against sub-.500 teams over the past few years, covering just 5 times in their last 26 opportunities. Only a sucker would trust them as a road favorite in this matchup, especially when you consider that Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan is 7-2-1 ATS in his career as a home underdog.
2. Atlanta’s strength– their passing attack– just happens to match up perfectly with Pittsburgh’s biggest weakness, their secondary. The Falcons average nearly 285 pass yards per game, ranking 5th in the NFL, and the Steelers rank 24th in passing defense despite facing run-first teams like Cincinnati, Tennessee, and the New York Jets over the past month. Plus, Pittsburgh’s best cornerback, Ike Taylor, is likely to miss this game with a shoulder injury.
3. The Atlanta defense has mostly played well over the second half of the season, holding 9 of their past 10 opponents below 30 points. They’re underrated by the betting public, while the Pittsburgh offense has mostly gotten a “pass” for their struggles on the road. Just look at what the Steelers have done away from home this season: they produced just 6 points in Baltimore, 17 points against a terrible Jacksonville defense, 10 points in Cleveland, and 13 points in a loss to the lowly New York Jets. People who are expecting the Steelers to pile up the points this week just haven’t been paying attention.
Prediction
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