Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11, 3-9-1 ATS) @ Baltimore Ravens (8-5, 7-5-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Baltimore -14 (45.5)
Significant Injuries
Jacksonville: DE Andre Branch (out– groin), RB Denard Robinson (out– foot)
Baltimore: RB Lorenzo Taliaferro (questionable- foot), TE Crockett Gilmore (questionable– back), OT Jah Reid (questionable– hand)
Recent Trends
Jacksonville is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game
Jacksonville is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games
Jacksonville is 9-24-1 ATS in their last 34 games overall
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games
Baltimore is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing record
Baltimore is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 14 points
The home team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 6-1 in Jacksonville’s last 7 games vs. AFC opponents
The UNDER is 11-5 in Baltimore’s last 16 home games
The OVER is 5-2 in Baltimore’s last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record
Three reasons to back Jacksonville
1. Uhh… that’s a lot of points.
2. The Jags have been competitive over their past couple of games, beating the New York Giants in Week 13 and holding a 3rd-quarter lead over Houston last week. Rookie quarterback Blake Bortles has shown flashes of promise, throwing for 220 yards or more 6 times in 11 starts, and this week he’ll be facing a Baltimore secondary that has surrendered the second-most passing yards in the league this season. Bortles should be able to do enough damage to keep Jacksonville in the game.
3. That’s a LOT of points.
Three reasons to back Baltimore
1. This is the type of mismatch you typically see in a sport like Major League Baseball, where the lack of a salary cap allows big-market teams to simply outspend the competition, creating a few quasi-All Star teams and several other teams who are essentially “farm systems” for the big boys, places where talent is developed and then snatched away by some team with deeper pockets. The NFL is known as the league of parity because of the way it is structured– a salary cap and “floor”, draft rules, player acquisition/waiver rules, etc. Theoretically, the teams are all on equal competitive footing, so quick turnarounds are possible. It’s a very effective way to provide hope to the fan bases of all 32 teams, and it’s a big reason why the NFL now dwarfs Major League Baseball in popularity, something that couldn’t have been said 35 years ago. Somehow, though, the Jaguars continue to buck the trend. Despite every opportunity for improvement– top-5 draft picks, a new coach, a new general manager who has entirely turned over the roster, a spot in one of the NFL’s weakest divisions– they’ve been remarkably consistent in their level of play over the past few years, and that level of play is, well, shamefully bad. Here they are again, 2-11, 3-9-1 against the spread, winless on the road, and last in the league in point differential (-156). Any Jacksonville argument here must begin and end with “boy, that’s a lot of points.”
2. The Ravens have a stout defense that ranks 6th in points allowed and 4th against the run, and the Jags rank 32nd (a.k.a. dead last) in points scored, averaging just 15.3 per game. Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles, a rookie, leads the NFL in interceptions despite not making his first start until Week 4.
3. The Jacksonville defense has surrendered 27.4 points per game this season. The Baltimore offense averages 27.4 points per game. (hint: this is not good for Jacksonville) The Ravens have been especially good at home, where they’ve produced 26 points or more in 4 of their past 5 games (4-1 ATS in those games). The offense is balanced yet explosive, and it’t the primary reason why Baltimore has won 6 games this season by 14 points or more.
Prediction
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