Miami Dolphins (7-6, 7-6 ATS) @ New England Patriots (10-3, 8-5 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: New England -7.5 (48)
Significant Injuries
Miami: TE Charles Clay (questionable– hamstring), CB Cortland Finnegan (questionable– ankle), CB Jamar Taylor (questionable– shoulder), LB Jonathan Freeny (doubtful– hamstring), LB Jelani Jenkins (doubtful– foot), LB Koa Misi (doubtful– hamstring), OT Nate Garner (out– illness), DT Anthony Johnson (out– ankle)
New England: G Dan Connolly (questionable– ankle), WR Julian Edelman (questionable– thigh), OT Cameron Fleming (questionable– ankle), DE Chandler Jones (questionable– hip), WR Brandon LaFell (questionable– shoulder), DE Rob Ninkovich (questionable– heel), RB Shane Vereen (questionable– ankle), LB Chris White (questionable– ankle), DE Dominique Easley (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Miami is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit home loss
Miami is 30-12 ATS in their last 42 road games vs. a team with a winning record
Miami is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 December games
New England is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games
New England is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record
The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 7-1 in Miami’s last 8 games overall
The OVER is 4-1 in New England’s last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 21-7 in New England’s last 28 games vs. AFC East opponents
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Miami
1. The Dolphins are a quality team and it’s a bit unusual for them to be on the wrong side of a 7.5-point spread. As a matter of fact, the Dolphins are a bigger underdog this week than they have been for any game all season, eclipsing the 6.5-point number that Denver bettors had to lay in Week 12. Those bettors lost their money, though, as Miami put 36 points on the board and lost by just three. And it’s not like the Patriots are demonstrably better than the Dolphins– after all, when these teams met back in Week 1 it wasn’t even competitive, as Miami cruised to an easy 13-point win.
2. The Miami offensive line is just too tough and physical for the Patriots, a fact they proved emphatically the last time these teams met. The box score tells the story: 38 rushes, 191 yards, and 33 points despite two lost fumbles. The New England defense can’t stop the Dolphins from doing what they want to do. It’s as simple as that.
3. The New England offense is rather one-dimensional, ranking 7th in pass yards per game but 19th in rush yards per game. That makes them a great matchup for a Miami defense that has allowed fewer passing yards this season than all but two teams leaguewide. The Dolphins have been especially good on the road, surrendering 20 points or fewer in 5 of their past 6 road games.
Three reasons to back New England
1. The Patriots have been the best team in the AFC this season and they’ve been particularly good at home, where they’re 6-0 on the year and have covered in 4 of their past 5 opportunities despite facing playoff contenders like Denver, Detroit, and Cincinnati. Seven of their last 8 wins have come by 9 points or more, so bettors shouldn’t be too bothered by the 7.5-point number here.
2. The New England offense ranks 3rd in the league with an average of 30.8 points per game and they’ve been otherworldly at home, where they’ve averaged a staggering 39.6 points in their last 5 contests. The Dolphins gave up 28 in a loss to Baltimore last week and 39 in a loss to Denver two weeks before that, so their defense is far from impenetrable. If you’re expecting Tom Brady and Co. to struggle in this game, you haven’t been paying attention.
3. The Miami offense has been very ordinary this season, ranking 21st in total yards per game. They have a dink-and-dunk passing attack that produces fewer that 220 yards per game through the air, so defenses have been ganging up on the running game lately and have had success. The Dolphins produced just 13 points in a home loss to Baltimore last week and have now scored 22 points or fewer in 4 of their past 5 games. How are they going to keep up with a New England offense that averages over 30 points per game?
Prediction
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