Green Bay Packers (10-3, 7-5-1 ATS) @ Buffalo Bills (7-6, 7-6 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Green Bay -4 (50.5)
Significant Injuries
Green Bay: CB Davon House (out– shoulder), LB Jamari Lattimore (out– ankle)
Buffalo: DE Jarius Wynn (questionable– knee), TE Chris Gragg (out– knee), S Da’Norris Searcy (out– hamstring), WR Mike Williams (out– calf)
Recent Trends
Green Bay is 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning record
Green Bay is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record
Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after rushing for fewer than 90 yards in their previous game
The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 7-2 in Green Bay’s last 9 road games
The OVER is 8-2 in Green Bay’s last 10 games overall
The UNDER is 4-0 in Buffalo’s last 5 home games
The UNDER is 5-0 in Buffalo’s last 5 games overall
Three reasons to back Green Bay
1. The Packers, who are 10-3 and have won 9 of their past 10 games, are quite possibly the best professional football team in the world. They’re led by MVP frontrunner Aaron Rodgers at quarterback and an underrated defense that has come together over the past 5 weeks. The weather in Buffalo won’t bother them– it’s pretty cold in Green Bay, after all– and neither should a Bills team that has lost 5 games by 7 points or more this season.
2. Aaron Rodgers is playing the best football of his career and, as a result, the Packers are averaging an impressive 32.5 points per game, which leads the league. The Buffalo defense has dominated subpar offenses this season but they’ve struggled against capable units, allowing an average of 26.2 points per game against San Diego, New England, Miami, and Denver. The Packers may not reach 50 in this game, but anything less than a 28-30 point outing would be considered a disappointment.
3. Considering the fact that Green Bay leads the NFL in points scored, it seems likely that the Buffalo offense will have to be productive in order for the Bills to have a chance. Unfortunately for Bills fans, the team starts Kyle Orton at quarterback, their best wide receiver is a rookie, and their most explosive playmaker (C.J. Spiller) is still sidelined with a broken collarbone. Not surprisingly, that formula hasn’t produced great results, as the Bills rank 22nd in total offense and have scored 22 points or fewer in 8 of their past 11 games. They won’t be able to keep pace with Rodgers and the Pack.
Three reasons to back Buffalo
1. While NFL fans and bettors alike have marveled at some of Green Bay’s blowout wins in recent weeks, what they may not have noticed is that nearly all of those impressive victories came at Lambeau Field. The Packers simply aren’t the same team on the road, and this week they’ll be facing a quality Bills team that’s desperate for a win. Green Bay is 3-3 in their 6 road games this season, and 2 of their 3 wins have come by 3 points or fewer. They’ve won by more than 3 points on the road just once all season, and that was a September game against a Chicago team that we now know to be fraudulent. Should they be a 4-point favorite in Buffalo this week, then? Absolutely not, but it’s understandable considering the betting public’s affinity for the Packers. Sharp bettors will be with the home team, though.
2. The Bills have one of the NFL’s best defenses, a physical, attacking unit that leads the league in sacks and ranks 4th in points allowed. They’ve improved over the course of the season and have been positively dominant at home lately, surrendering just 11.5 points per game in their last 4 home contests. They traveled to Denver last week and broke Peyton Manning’s streak of 51 games with a touchdown pass, which had been the 2nd most in NFL history, so a home game against Aaron Rodgers should be just another opportunity for this group to show the world just how good they are. It’s going to be a tough day for the Pack.
3. The Buffalo offense has ranked in the top-half of the league in both total yards per game and pass yards per game since Kyle Orton took over for E.J. Manuel at quarterback, and this week Orton and friends have a golden opportunity to shine against a Green Bay defense that ranks 26th in yards allowed and surrendered 37 points to the struggling Falcons last week.
Prediction
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