Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans (Sky Sports HD, 6pm)
Injuries have hit the Ravens hard. Their aging defence was always going to be a concern, particularly when outside linebacker Terrell Suggs went down with a season-ending injury before a ball was snapped. But now they must do without linebacker Ray Lewis and cornerback Ladarius Webb for the remainder of the season. While Dannell Ellerbe is a decent replacement for Lewis (the Ravens went 4-0 when he stepped in for the 37-year-old last season), there is no denying that second-year cornerback Jimmy Smith will see plenty of balls flying his way as he attempts to plug Webb’s role.
The Ravens were beaten badly by Dallas’s big offensive line, which paved the way for a 227-yard day on the ground last week. They got away with a win, thanks to poor coaching and time mismanagement in the final two minutes by Jason Garrett’s men.
They cannot afford to be as benevolent against Houston, in what could be a precursor to the AFC Championship game, but they are still two games ahead of Pittsburgh and Cincinnati in the AFC North and with the Browns and Raiders to follow in the next two weeks, defeat here would not be too significant. At worst, we should expect them to have a 6-3 record before facing the Steelers on November 19 and they are only one of two teams in the conference to boast a winning record at this stage. The other is Houston.
The Texans dropped the first of three consecutive home games to Green Bay on Sunday night, being blown out 42-24 and losing their unbeaten record in the process. Their schedule is less tough, having still to face the likes of Buffalo, Jacksonville, Tennessee and Indianapolis (twice). Victory for either would put them in pole position for homefield advantage in the playoffs.
Houston have a significant injury problem of their own, one that changes the whole dynamic of their defence. Missing linebacker Brian Cushing, their defensive captain, the Texans allowed Aaron Rodgers to pass for six touchdowns – the total amount of TDs they had conceded in their previous five games. You can put that one down to experience and they will be more prepared for life after Cushing this week.
Baltimore have hardly been prolific. They scraped past New England, looked lacklustre in a 23-16 win over Cleveland, then eked a 9-6 win at Kansas City before Sunday’s two-point win over Dallas. And they can be run upon, as the Chiefs (217 yards on the ground) and Cowboys proved.
Expect to see plenty of Arian Foster running up the gut, between the tackles, and Matt Schaub finding room in the secondary off play action, as the Ravens attempt to stack the line of scrimmage. This could develop into a shootout and while it could be Lucy 7 for the Texans (who have lost all six of their previous games against Baltimore), the six points that the BETDAQ handicap line accords the Ravens might be worth taking.
New York Jets @ New England Patriots (Sky Sports HD, 9.25pm)
The battle for the lead in the AFC East sees both clubs boasting surprising 3-3 records – surprising for different reasons. The Jets have had some issues with both lines and they have lost stars like cornerback Darrelle Revis and receiver Santonio Holmes for the season. The Patriots expect better starts than this. While they have lost three games by a combined total of four points, they have been far from consistent, their limitations exposed by strong defensive teams Arizona, Baltimore and Seattle.
Jets have been outscored 112-40 in last three against the Patriots but they appear to have adjusted well to the loss of Revis in their last two games. AFC powerhouse Houston struggled past them and the Jets followed up by cruising to an easy win over Indianapolis last week.
Mark Sanchez has often misfired this season and the feeling is that the coaching staff do not fully trust him at this juncture, but he was efficient against the Colts.
However, bad teams can suffer a drop-off after a big victory and that could happen to a Jets team that face a quarterback in Tom Brady who is 16-5 against Gang Green all time.
It will be interesting to see if Rex Ryan still has a grip on the locker room, given that he has given one of his – thus far largely unsuccessful – guarantees that the Jets will beat the Patriots. But old Rex, for all his bluster, does have a 3-4 record against Bill Belichik’s team.
The Patriots are 29-22 against the spread in games after a loss and you have to start wondering if Boston’s finest are, indeed, just an average team with an average 3-3 record, given that they have the easiest schedule in the league (again).
Nothing would please Belichick more than ramming Rex’s words right down his throat and I’m more inclined to believe that the Patriots – who face an improving St Louis Rams at Wembley next week – are nearer to the team that destroyed Buffalo than the one that lost in Seattle. So, with the BETDAQ handicap at a lofty 10.5 points, they get a tentative vote to cover at home (that’s assuming Jets’ offensive coordinator Tony Sparano doesn’t again unleash the Wildcat or some similar surprise upon Belichick).
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (C4, Sunday 1.20am)
Pittsburgh, who will play the Minnesota Vikings at Wembley next September in the first of two UK games in 2013, have not been punters’ pals this season. The Steelers have won two of their five games and managed to cover the handicap in only one game this season, despite being favourites in four of those five contests.
Furthermore, they have lost five of their last six road games going back to last season. But there is no better tonic for those with ‘terrible towels’ than the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Steelers have covered the handicap in 18 of their last 26 outings against the Bengals, including a 13-3-1 handicap record in games at Paul Brown Stadium. And they are 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 games when coming off a defeat. The handicap favourite has won the last four in the series, and Pittsburgh, despite a desperate performance in Tennessee, are 1-point BETDAQ handicap jollies.
The Bengals have lost two on the spin, to an improving Miami team and a hungry Cleveland team looking for their first win of the season (despite Andy Dalton throwing for 381 yards last week). Both the Dolphins and Browns had rookie quarterbacks under centre. Now the Bengals face a seasoned veteran in Ben Roethlisberger who is having his finest opening third of the season in his career. And Pittsburgh are getting desperate.
Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills
We saw a great comeback by Denver on Monday night. Down 24-0 at half time in San Diego, Peyton Manning inspired the Broncos to 35 unanswered points. It will go down as one of the most memorable games in recent history – though, perhaps not as memorable as the Buffalo Bills’ comeback against the old Houston Oilers at Orchard Park on January 3, 1993. It’s a game that gives you a warm, fuzzy feeling – one of hope (even if you are a Cleveland Browns fan).
Down 35-3 in the third quarter after Bubba McDowell’s 58 yard interception return for a touchdown, the Bills were dead and buried. But after Kenneth Davis rumbled in for what looked a consolation TD, Frank Reich set to work, lobbing four touchdown passes (one to Don Beebe and three to Andre Reed). Steve Christie booted the winner in overtime for an incredible 41-38 win.
The Oilers moved to Tennessee in 1997, morphed into the Titans and the franchise has lost just once to the Bills in their last eight meetings.
After their upset win at home to Pittsburgh and with three days more rest than the Bills under their belts, the Titans could be primed for another shock. And don’t be surprised if the boot is on the other foot as the Bills, who have conceded 192 points (the second highest total in the NFL) have been most vulnerable in the fourth quarter, allowing 76 points in their five games (39.9% of their total).
But wait. Don’t be surprised if the boot is on the same foot. Tennessee have conceded a league high 204 total points and they have been most generous in the fourth quarter, allowing 72 points (35.3% of their total).
Titans’ veteran back-up quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is on 198 career touchdown passes and he has plenty of outside help in the passing game with decent receivers in Kendall Wright and Nate Washington. But their 70.2 yards-per-game average on the ground is the league’s worst.
Buffalo’s ground game is bordering on the excellent, but quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t about to strike fear into anyone and, should an opponent get an early lead on Buffalo, they don’t appear to have the firepower to muster too many aerial fireworks.
If looking for an upset this week, Orchard Park could be the place to go, so we’ll take the Titans to win at a decent price on the BETDAQ Moneyline, even though they are accorded a 3-point start on the handicap.
Manning revived memories of a simple, good old-fashioned comeback and filled up our senses on Monday night. While the Broncos are on a bye week, we felt a little more Denver wouldn’t go amiss. This edition of the Musical Interlude is therefore in tribute to Manning, Reich, Reed and Beebe… and anyone who loves great music.
Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers
How long before receiver Dez Bryant drops Lance Armstrong? That’s not quite as amusing as the handicap line which has the Cowboys as 1-point BETDAQ handicap favourites against a team that has lost eight of the last nine against them.
The drop issues are troubling for Bryant and the Cowboys, who have won just two of their five games this season and, after falling to Baltimore, are on the precipice of their first three-game losing streak since 2010.
But they have beaten the Giants on the road, come close to beating AFC power Baltimore on the road and this is a pivotal game for them. They simply cannot afford to lose, not with games against the Giants, Atlanta and Philadelphia upcoming.
The 1-4 Panthers are 23rd against the rush and even without DeMarco Murray, Felix Jones should get plenty of opportunities to find paydirt.
Washington Redskins @ New York Giants
Washington have won two on the spin against the Giants. You have to go back to 1999 to find their last three-game winning streak against Big Blue (and for good measure they added a fourth consecutive win in Sept 2000). Since then the Redskins have won just seven of 23 meetings.
Expect the trend to continue as the 6.5-point BETDAQ favourite New York Giants roll to a comfortable win, despite the potential of a let-down after their epic 26-3 win in San Francisco last Sunday.
The Giants, who traditionally stick it to Washington on the ground, will take to the air against a porous pass defence that is giving up an average of 328.3 yards per game.
Green Bay Packers @ St Louis Rams
You have to go back to 1962, at the height of the Vince Lombardi era, to find the last time that Green Bay managed a four-game winning streak against the Rams. Victory here will give them another four-timer and they have every chance of doing that, according to the BETDAQ handicap, which has the road team as 5.5-point favourites.
The Rams outgained the Dolphins but lost in Miami last week, but at home they have been excellent and are looking for their first 4-0 start at home since 2003.
St Louis match up better than most against Green Bay’s receivers, as their one-on-one coverage is usually very good. And with Green Bay giving up 100 yards per game on the ground, it is possible that Steven Jackson and Daryl Richardson will see enough of the ball to take chunks of time off the clock and keep things close – providing the Packers don’t get off to a fast start.
Don’t forget to check out John Arnette’s verdicts on other games at www.betdaqnfl.com and join us again on Monday for a run-down of the Detroit/Chicago clash. Good luck.
Suggestions:
Back – Dallas -1
Back – Tennessee Moneyline
Back – Pittsburgh -1
Lay – New York Jets +10.5
Back – Baltimore +6
Back – Over 45.5 points Dallas/Carolina
Back – NY Giants -6.5
Lay – Green Bay -5.5
Milham’s 2012 record:
Week 1: 7-5
Week 2: 7-6-1
Week 3: 5-8
Week 4: 10-3
Week 5: 4-9
Week 6: 6-8
Twitter: @simonmilham
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