The finest professional golfers in the world will gather in South Florida this week for the WGC Cadillac Championship, an event that features not only the top 51 players in the latest world rankings but also the best players on the Australasian Tour, Sunshine Tour, Asian Tour, and Japan Tour. It may not officially be considered a major championship, but this tournament does have that type of feel.
The Trump National Doral is a very familiar course to many players in the field, as the PGA Tour has made an annual stop there since 1962 and this particular World Golf Championship event (formerly known as the American Express Championship and the CA Championship) has been held there for the past nine years. At over 7,500 yards, it tends to favor longer hitters, with Mike Weir’s win fifteen years ago standing out as the last time a player who was considered relatively “short” won at Doral.
Patrick Reed won this event last year and he’s one of the favorites again, as only six players in the field are currently saddled with shorter odds at BETDAQ. World number 1 Rory McIlroy is the betting favorite at 5.3, but his missed cut last week has to put some doubt in the minds of even his staunchest supporters. McIlroy has a good record at Doral, though, finishing 3rd in 2012 and 8th in 2013.
Here are a few players who I think may be worth a look this week:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Jordan Spieth (16)- Last year was Spieth’s first look at Doral in competition and he made the cut but finished a disappointing 34th, which has thrown some people off his scent this week. Don’t be fooled, though: Doral sets up nicely for Spieth, who is an excellent driver of the golf ball, and not many players find themselves on the first page of the leaderboard as regularly as the young Texan. One look at Spieth’s finishes in his last five PGA Tour events tells you all you need to know: 4th, 7th, MC, 7th, 1st. This guy is one of the very best players in the world and he’s a safe bet to be within shouting distance of the lead on Sunday afternoon, which makes him a great value at the current price.
Jimmy Walker (46)- Like Spieth, Walker has limited experience at Doral, finishing 25th last year in his first appearance at this event. However, Walker has been an absolute birdie-making machine over the past 18 months, ascending from relative unknown to one of the world’s top players. He’s now made 12 consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour, a stretch that includes five top-10s, three top-5s, and a victory, and he’s won four times since October of 2013. Plus, Walker has always played his best golf on Bermuda grass after growing up in Oklahoma, where most courses are covered in Bermuda from tee to green. Doral, like all Florida courses, features Bermuda fairways and rough, so Walker should feel right at home. He’s worth a bet this week.
Bernd Wiesberger (110)- Okay, I realize this one’s a little outside the box and could make me look bad at week’s end, but if you’re looking for long odds I’d take a hard look at Bernd Wiesberger. The young Austrian has really blossomed over the past few months, putting together an incredible stretch on the European Tour in late January/early February in which he finished 6th in Abu Dhabi, 3rd in Qatar, 4th in Dubai, and 2nd in Malaysia. He’s a great ball-striker whose style of play appears to be a good fit for Doral, though he hasn’t yet tackled the Blue Monster in competition. Look, I know a lot of people will be surprised if Wiesberger is around the lead on Sunday, but I’m not one of those people. He’s a world-class player who is severely undervalued this week and is definitely worth a small bet.
Tournament Match Bets
Brooks Koepka (1.91) vs. Jamie Donaldson (1.91)
Donaldson has fared well in the States lately, most notably at this very event last year, where he finished second, and at last week’s Honda Classic, where he finished 6th. However, Koepka is a supremely talented young player whose ceiling may be near the McIlroy/Woods level. He responded to a horrid opening round last week with a second-round 64, giving him his 5th made cut in as many tries on Tour this season, and he’s a native Floridian who should be very comfortable at Doral. I like his chances this week and think he’s a good bet to beat Donaldson. Recommendation: Koepka at 1.91
Bubba Watson (1.91) vs. Jason Day (1.91)
Bubba has an excellent history at this event, finishing second both last year and in 2012, and he’s played well this year, notching top-15 finishes in all three of his starts. Jason Day is undoubtedly one of the best young players in the world, but he hasn’t yet figured out Doral, finishing 20th or worse in all three of his appearances at this tournament. I like Day and he certainly has the ability to beat anyone– he won the Farmers Insurance Open less than a month ago, after all– but I just can’t justify backing him to beat Bubba at Doral. Recommendation: Watson at 1.91
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