WORLD CUP FRIDAY: The Ultra previews Friday’s four World Cup games between WALES v IRAN, QATAR v SENEGAL, NETHERLANDS v ECUADOR and ENGLAND v USA all including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
WALES V IRAN
10am We start the second round of Group games on Friday and we’re going to have some cracking games over the weekend on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We actually start the day with a huge clash in Group B as Wales must win to have any chance of getting through against Iran. We landed a nice bet on the draw between USA and Wales, but we’re likely looking at a goal difference situation now. Both will be reasonably expected to beat Iran and lose to England. Both will actually start (unless there’s a huge weight of money because they “need to win” in the final Group game for USA) odds against so it’s probably unreasonable to suggest they are “expected” to win but every casual football fan will feel Wales should win here. Iran weren’t as bad as the score line suggested in their 6-2 loss against England, but in fairness it was a very open game and Iran only managed to score when the game was effectively over really. Wales put in a good performance against USA and finished the game with an xG of nearly double what USA managed. That was brought up by a late penalty but at the same time Wales had created enough to deserve a draw before the late Bale penalty.
I have to say I do like Wales here at 2.2. For me that’s at least ten ticks too big. Iran looked like an average side against England and if they concede as many chances then surely Wales can find the net from open play. My main worries are Wales have struggled for goals in general lately, and they did create enough to score against USA but couldn’t do so from open play. And also Wales are on a long run of conceding goals in competitive fixtures – they built most of their success on being solid at the back and that seems to have changed. However, we must remember that they moved up to an A Group in the Nations League, and it’s fair to say that they are a little out of their depth in that Group. I feel there’s only one winner here after seeing the sides opening games, but there are two small worries so Wales won’t be a Max Bet at 2.2 – rather just a very confident one to start the day.
The Ultra Says:
Four points win Wales to beat Iran at 2.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WalIra
QATAR V SENEGAL
1pm Qatar got their tournament underway under a cloud of criticism. They will probably be happy that the football is actually underway, because off the pitch they just haven’t lived up to standards. There’s nothing the Qatar football team can do about the situation, but the blocking of beer and blocking of rainbow armbands just really started the tournament on a negative foot for the hosts. On the pitch, Qatar were very poor and it’s fair to say that they are the worst team in the tournament. I don’t think that’s a surprise to be honest because we were all asking the question pre-tournament would they be here if they weren’t the hosts? The answer to that question now is pretty obvious, and anything bar a Senegal win here would be a big surprise. They have been heavily backed since everyone saw the Qatar game, and from a pre-tournament price of around 2.2 they are now trading 1.66 at the time of writing. The highest price they’ve traded is 2.38, which is now a very nice position for anyone who got those odds. Senegal suffered a terrible blow pre-tournament when Sadio Mane was ruled out with injury. They gave him every chance including him in the squad, but news broke a few days before their loss to Netherlands that he will miss the tournament.
Senegal without their star player are definitely a different team. However, they should have enough firepower to beat Qatar here. It seems unlikely that Qatar will pose an attacking threat – their best chance seems to be sitting back and trying for a 0-0 draw which is possible given that Senegal are usually a low scoring team. Qatar finished their opening game with an xG of just 0.46, while Senegal tried to get a 0-0 against Netherlands but conceded late twice. Senegal at 1.66 is obviously appealing having seen the Qatar standard, but we must consider Under 2.5 goals here too at 1.68 which is only two ticks away from the Senegal win price. Senegal usually keep games very tight, and while Qatar do look average if they put XI men behind the ball then Senegal could struggle to score. I couldn’t put anyone off the Senegal bet, but I feel Under 2.5 goals is a slightly better option at 1.68.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/QatSen
NETHERLANDS V ECUADOR
4pm We stay in Group A next with a top of the table clash as Netherlands take on Ecuador. Both sides had identical starts to their tournament with 2-0 wins over Senegal and Qatar. To be fair, everything has gone as you would have thought it would in Group A so far so I doubt the game plan has changed for anyone really. Netherlands would have been expected to beat Senegal, and although they weren’t odds on Ecuador were pretty much expected to beat Qatar too. Just because of that win over Qatar doesn’t mean Ecuador are in a good position to qualify, it’s still likely to come down to that final Group game against Senegal should we see no surprises today. Senegal are odds on to beat Qatar, and Netherlands are odds on to win here – they are currently trading 1.86 at the time of writing. Netherlands would have been delighted with their opening win but they were made work very hard. They had to wait until the 84th minute to find the breakthrough, and then were probably flattered by the 2-0 score line given they scored in the 99th minute. 1-0 was probably a fair reflection of the game, but Senegal are rock solid at the back and they are likely to get a few more chances from Ecuador.
It’s hard to fully rate the Ecuador win over Qatar because Qatar looked very average – as I said above, likely not up to World Cup standard. This will be a very good guide for us to see where both teams stand within the tournament and what the Netherlands chances are of going deep. You have to say that they have a brilliant squad, and it was a nice performance at the back in the opening game. They usually play an open game and have a host of chances in their matches! At 1.86, Netherlands look the right price for me – I don’t see any value in the match odds market here. It’s also hard to have a strong opinion on the goals market, because Netherlands do like to attack and Under 2.5 goals is 1.77. We could easily have another cagey affair here, Ecuador know a draw is a brilliant result. I’m going to keep stakes small, and back 0-0 in the Correct Score market at 9.8. This is a game for small stakes, and Ecuador are likely going to be very negative here. I’d rather have a small bet on 0-0 rather a bigger bet on Under 2.5 goals, because once a goal goes in we could see Ecuador start chasing the game and that will open it up.
The Ultra Says:
One point win 0-0 Correct Score at 9.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NetEcu
ENGLAND V USA
7pm We finish Friday with the highlight of the day as England take on USA in Group B. England made a perfect start to their World Cup campaign with a confidence boosting 6-2 win over Iran. They were 3-0 up by half-time and in party mode by the second half. USA had a much more serious game against Wales, taking the lead midway through the first half but eventually conceding in the 82nd minute. If you look at the xG figures Wales created the better chances and you could even argue they deserved to win. Wales finished the game with an xG of nearly double the USA, but of course after taking a reasonably early lead in what was always going to be a tight game I suppose they were always likely to sit back and try to defend the lead. After a 1-1 draw with Wales, both sides will be expected to lose to England and then beat Iran – a draw for the USA here would be absolutely massive for their chances to get through, and we have to take that into consideration here. It’s hard to see USA going into this game with anything other than negative tactics, and the big question here are England good enough to break them down?
That’s why I feel the six goals against Iran was a very good thing for England’s confidence. Yes, Iran are average but England have really struggled to score goals this year. It couldn’t have been a better start to the tournament from that point of view really. When you consider that the USA didn’t create much against Wales and the fact that they didn’t even top their qualifying Group, I really fancy England here at 1.61. USA finished behind Canada and Mexico in CONCACAF and barely avoided a playoff as they finished on the same position as Costa Rica who went into that playoff. I know England have had a number of issues this year, but there just looks to be a gulf in class on paper here. England at 1.61 are worthy of a Max Bet in my opinion; the fact that they have found their confidence in front of goal makes this a much more simple task, and they can create enough to beat this average USA side.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win England to beat USA at 1.61 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EngUsa