THE MASTERS: “Well it’s springtime in the valley on Magnolia Lane; it’s the Augusta National and the Masters of the game. Who will wear that green coat on Sunday afternoon? Who’ll walk that 18th fairway singing this tune- Augusta, your dogwoods and pines, they play on my mind like a song. Augusta, it’s you that I love, it’s you that I miss when I’m gone.”
Thus begins the “Masters Song”, composed in 1978 by Dave Loggins and now almost entirely lost to history save for the opening guitar licks which still grace every Masters broadcast and act as something of a salve for the golfer’s soul. Most people don’t even know the song has lyrics — believe me, it ain’t easy to find on YouTube — but it does, and the homespun corniness somehow works, at least for those who are as fully bought in to the Augusta mystique as your humble author.
There’s simply no place like Augusta National in all of golf, and you feel it as soon as you step onto the grounds. I’ve been lucky enough to attend the tournament a few times, and 26 years ago I had the dreamlike experience of playing a round there with my father and an Augusta member named Frank Dobbs, both now departed. I remember every shot I hit that day and almost every detail of the afternoon. I will surely never set foot on the course as a player again, which makes the memory even more special, but every April, when the azaleas are in bloom and the golf season reaches its springtime crescendo, some of that same magic feeling returns. If you don’t feel that way about this tournament, I can’t help you, and you probably think I sound like a sentimental old fool. But for those of you who know, who have felt the feeling and want to feel it again, I don’t have to explain to you why this week is so special.
The particulars of the course remain unchanged: long, fairly open off the tee, lots of undulation, freaky fast greens that, while often large, are segmented in a way that makes a player’s actual target area quite small, making precision iron play a key for success. Bombers have been at a distinct advantage as renovations and added tee boxes have continued to make the course longer over the years, and a right to left ball-flight has always been the preferred shot-shape for the Bobby Jones/Alister MacKenzie design. Experience is also a key factor, as it seems to take several times around Augusta National to understand the best way to play it… at least, that’s the best explanation I can come up with for why Masters rookies usually struggle while guys like Couples and Langer can be competitive into their 60s despite the undeniable fact that they would not be able to achieve the same level of success these days at, say, the U.S. Open.
Speaking of Bernhard Langer, he’s now 67 years old and has announced that this will be his last Masters after 41 years, two green jackets, and 27 cuts made. Langer has been competitive right to the end and finished T29 as recently as 2020, when he was 62. The lifetime exemptions that champions of this tournament receive — the reason Langer has been able to come back every year — is one of the many traditions that make this event so unique and revered. Another is the Champions Dinner, held on Tuesday night of tournament week and featuring a guest list comprised exclusively of green jacket holders, with the menu determined by last year’s champion. This year Scottie Scheffler has gone the comfort food route with dishes like “Scottie Style” cheeseburger sliders, Papa Scheff’s meatball and ravioli bites, ribeye steak, blackened redfish, and a warm chocolate chip skillet cookie with vanilla ice cream. Sign me up, sir. A little Hollywood makeup and some diet pills and I could pass for Crenshaw.
Scheffler the Inevitable is looking for his third victory here in the past four years and is unsurprisingly the favorite, currently trading at 6.5 on the BETDAQ exchange, but Rory McIlroy is right behind him at 8.5 and many seem to think this might be Rory’s year. Others near the top of the market include Jon Rahm (17.5), Collin Morikawa (17.5), Bryson DeChambeau (21.0), and Ludvig Aberg (25.0), who finished runner-up on debut here last year and seems destined to don the green jacket someday. There are many other contenders, of course, and a few long-odds options who may be worth chancing. Here are three guys at the top of my list this week:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Justin Thomas (26.0)- Thomas is now fully on the other side of an extended slump that seemingly robbed him of his superpowers, racking up four top-10s and a pair of runner-up finishes across nine starts this season, with one of those runners-up coming in his last start, the Valspar. Though he’s missed the cut here in each of the past two years, he did finish 8th in 2022, 4th in 2020, and has four other top-25s in the past decade, so he clearly knows his way around Augusta National. Thomas has been flushing his irons in recent months, ranking 8th on Tour in strokes gained on approach, and his putting stats have improved dramatically this season, a testament to the work he put in after really struggling on the greens in ’23-’24. He’s got every tool in the toolbox and you’d have to think that winning this tournament is right at the top of his list of career goals. I think he’s got a real chance this week.
Joaquin Niemann (42.0)- Unlike some players we’ve been reading about recently, Niemann has thrived on the LIV circuit, winning twice in five starts this season and ranking first on LIV’s Points List. He’s in the field via special invitation due to international successes like his victory at the PIF Saudi International in December, which placed him atop the Asian Tour’s International Series points list, and this will be his 23rd start in a major championship, so he’s seen a lot and is essentially a grizzled vet at age 26. A victory this week would certainly be career-changing for Niemann, and it’s possible: he has a good history at Augusta which includes made cuts in each of his past four tournament appearances and a pair of top-25s, and he’s never been in better form heading into Masters week. He’s a tremendous iron player who can really string together some birdies when his putter gets hot, and he won’t be scared of the moment. Niemann is a great value at better than 40/1.
Daniel Berger (200.0)- When people have been asking me who my dark horse is this week, this is the first name out of my mouth: Daniel Berger. Though many seemed to have forgotten about him after he basically disappeared due to injury-induced struggles, Berger is a player who has contended on the biggest of stages, with a resume that includes a Ryder Cup appearance and four PGA Tour victories. His Masters record features a top-10 and four made cuts across five appearances, so Augusta National agrees with him apparently, and he’s in the midst of a run of form which includes top-30 finishes in his last six starts, a runner-up in Phoenix and top-15s at the API and the Genesis. He’s doing everything well, ranking in the top-20 on Tour in both strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained on approach, 26th in putts per round and 28th in one-putt percentage. Berger is going to make some noise this week and is a must-bet at the current price.
