USPGA: The (US)PGA Championship has seen its fortunes rise as much as any tournament in the world over the past few years: it went from being the “other” major, clearly ranking below its three cousins in importance and not really distinguishing itself in a significant way from other big events around the world, to what it is now, the bridge between the Masters and the two summer majors, and, more importantly, the tournament with the strongest field in all of golf.
That distinction, the “strongest field” distinction, was for years held by The Players Championship, which formerly had the largest purse in golf and all but one or two of the world’s top 100 players in attendance. However, the birth of the LIV Tour and the PGA Tour’s subsequent decision to ban all LIV players from participation in their events meant that many of the game’s best players and biggest stars, guys like Rahm, DeChambeau, and Koepka, were no longer eligible to compete. As a result, major championships are now the only time we get to see the best players in the world all in one place, competing together. And since the PGA Championship invites the top 100 players in the world rankings while the other three majors will only guarantee invites for the top 50 (Masters) or top 60 (U.S. Open, Open Championship), this is now unquestionably the tournament with the deepest, strongest field in golf. Billy Horschel is the only top-100 player who won’t be teeing it up this week.
The venue is a familiar one to fans and players alike: Charlotte’s Quail Hollow Golf Club hosted this event in 2017 and the Presidents Cup in 2022, and it’s also the regular site of the PGA Tour’s Wells Fargo Championship. Over the past 20 years Quail Hollow has become one of the most showcased courses in the world, and it seems to be quite popular with the players as well… it’s very difficult to find any negative quotes or criticisms of the place. Designed by George Cobb in the early 1960s and extensively reworked by Tom Fazio in 1997, it’s a course with a blend of playability, difficulty, and aesthetic beauty that makes it a perfect fit for a world-class tournament golf. Tipping out at over 7,500 yards of rolling green hills, towering trees, lush rough, and fast, undulating bentgrass greens, Quail Hollow is a ball-striker’s layout that harshly penalizes mistakes. Landing areas are small, the rough will be thick, water hazards come into play on several holes, and the course features a daunting three-hole finishing stretch known as the “Green Mile” which consists of a long, scary par-3 sandwiched between two difficult par-4s. You can be sure that the Green Mile will be the final resting place of many promising rounds this week. It’s a finish that’s high stress for the players and high entertainment for the fans.
Speaking of entertainment, there has been considerable movement in the market this week, with several players taking heavy action. For the first time in more than a year, Scottie Scheffler is not the betting favorite, as Rory McIlroy is currently trading at 6.0 at BETDAQ while Scheffler is hovering around 6.6. It makes sense given Rory’s record at Quail Hollow, but it’s still a bit jarring to see after Scheffler had been such a big favorite in every tournament he’s entered from what seems like forever. I guess 31-under and an 8-shot victory isn’t quite enough to convince some folks? Regardless, here are my favorites this week:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Scottie Scheffler (6.6)- Here is my favorite stat from the CJ Cup two weeks ago, when Scheffler blitzed the field to the tune of 31-under 253: if you removed Scheffler’s score each day and took the low round of the other 155 guys in the field, and added that up over four days — the low round in the field from someone not named Scottie Scheffler — you would get 30-under, meaning Scheffler would’ve still won by a shot. It’s remarkable, and quite a way to bust out of a “slump”, a word I put in quotations because for just about any other player the run that Scheffler was on before breaking through in Texas — six consecutive top-20 finishes, including three top-5s — would be a career stretch. Now, with the taste of victory fresh, he comes to Quail Hollow, a course he incredibly has never played in competition but one that would seem to set up perfectly for his game given its emphasis on tee-to-green precision. It just feels like Scheffler is a near-lock to be around the top-5 this week, and if he gets a sniff of the lead over the weekend the rest of the field just might be in trouble — this guy is the best closer we’ve seen since prime Tiger. The price may be short, but hey, he’s probably going to win.
Tommy Fleetwood (44.0)- Fleetwood is quietly putting together a terrific season, finding the top-25 in 8 of his 9 starts, with three top-10s in that stretch. He’s really turned it on since Augusta, finishing 7th at the RBC Heritage and 4th in last week’s Truist Championship, and he seems to have figured out the best way around Quail Hollow, as he has top-15s in his last three visits, including a T3 in 2023. A brilliant ball-striker, he currently ranks 13th on Tour in both strokes gained tee-to-green and strokes gained on approach, so he should have it on a string around Quail Hollow and will give himself plenty of looks at birdie. Fleetwood seems to play well in every major… he just needs to find that Sunday magic and close one of these out. I’m happy to take a chance on him at a price like 44.0.
Patrick Reed (80.0)- Don’t look now, but professional golf’s self-styled villain and most notorious suspected cheat has been playing his best golf in years, finishing 7th or better in 4 of his past 5 worldwide starts. A Southern boy who grew up just a few hours down the highway from Quail Hollow, Reed has always done his best work in the Southeast US, and he’s had considerable success at this course specifically, with highlights that include a runner-up in the 2017 PGA Championship, a T8 at the Wells Fargo in 2018, and a T6 at the same tournament three years later. He didn’t putt particularly well at the Masters but still finished 3rd, a testament to his ball-striking that week, and he followed that up with a T4 at LIV Golf Korea. Given his recent uptick in form and his years of experience contending in majors (and winning), Reed feels like a live one this week and might just be the best value on the board at the current price.
