WEDNESDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews AC MILAN v BOLOGNA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
AC MILAN V BOLOGNA
8pm We have a blockbuster fixture from Europe on Wednesday with all the focus on the Coppa Italia Final on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! AC Milan meet Bologna – you don’t need me to tell you how big this fixture is for both clubs looking at the Serie A table. The way Bologna have finished their season in recent weeks now leaves them in a terrible position for Europe next season – they have gone from going for Champions League football to dropping out of the Europa League spots now after just one win from their last six Serie A games. From that point of view, they couldn’t come here in worse shape really – confidence must be low.
In fairness to Bologna, they have had a difficult fixture list – they have had to play Napoli, Atalanta, Inter Milan, Juventus and AC Milan in that six game run – you’d only add Roma and Lazio and you have all the top clubs from Italy. It’s remarkable how the fixture list throws up situations like this, but the sides only met in Serie A on Friday night – AC Milan had home advantage and ran out 3-1 winners. Bologna will say they were a little unlucky points to a higher possession stat and a higher xG figure but AC Milan just blew them away in the final 20 minutes.
What that game did show though, despite the score line, is that there really isn’t much between the sides. There was only 6% between them on possession and 0.08 on xG figures. It’s not a surprise to see that we have a very open betting heat here, especially given a neutral venue at the Stadio Olimpico. AC Milan come into the game as the favourites at 2.66 with Bologna 3.05 and the draw is 3.2 at the time of writing. While AC Milan won on Friday night, Bologna ran out 2-1 winners when they had home advantage earlier in the season. AC Milan have a good long-term record against Bologna, but the reality is there’s very little between the sides this season.
AC Milan have the better attacking figure, but there isn’t much between the sides. AC Milan have an average xG created of 1.63 and Bologna are 0.09 behind them on 1.54. Bologna have been better at the back – they have an average xG conceded of 0.99 which is the best defensive figure in Serie A this season, and AC Milan have been mid-table level at the back with an average xG conceded of 1.30. AC Milan should be higher than mid-table given their figures, but they just haven’t got over the line in enough games this season. I personally feel that the 2.66 is a little short on them – I’d have the market even more open!
It’s hard to get away from the draw here at 3.2 in what should be a very close game. However, another bet to surely consider is Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 – it’s hard to see anything other than a very cagey affair looking at how the sides shape up; however when they have met this season we have seen goals. That’s slightly putting me off the Unders position, and I’m happy to back the draw at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Draw at 3.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CIBoAc
